Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
09-24-2023, 08:16 AM
#5041
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,594
Maybe those WB deliveries are all growth and it drives WB A to historical juniority, maybe they retire some 767-300’s and/or refit some older 330’s or 350’s (like they did with the -400 in 2018-2019) with updated cabins which offsets some/many of them.
Either way, if you want credibility for your contention, quit wildly exaggerating numbers or rates to make your case.
Either way, if you want credibility for your contention, quit wildly exaggerating numbers or rates to make your case.
09-24-2023, 08:20 AM
#5042
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,807
I’ll also add, I’d be delighted to be proven wrong in my analysis. Time will tell.
09-24-2023, 08:26 AM
#5043
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2016
Posts: 18
I’ve used the nuance of “crumble”. And also pushed back on any talk of a “Wall” applying to a hire year. That’s not a wall falling, else the wall would perpetually be falling. A “Wall falling” would mean WB A going to a 5XXX seniority number (for example) - and staying there. Or, WB B going to NH’s (which “fell”, but has now been nearly completely rebuilt).
I’ll also add, I’d be delighted to be proven wrong in my analysis. Time will tell.
I’ll also add, I’d be delighted to be proven wrong in my analysis. Time will tell.
09-24-2023, 08:27 AM
#5044
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 2,376
There’s what, 4000+ numbers between WB B on the last few AEs and plug? That’s a tremendous gap to bridge now. Even if it falls to the 13,xxx range, that’s 6+ years for tomorrows newhire.
09-24-2023, 10:11 AM
#5045
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: Working 5 to 9
Posts: 520
Mine got denied 3 or 4 times. It took over 2 years from the time mine expired to getting it back in the mail. The last year of it I had a lot of pressure from my CPO. At least I kept making progress…😏. After talking with my rep I realized I had no choice but to get it despite feet dragging.
09-24-2023, 10:25 AM
#5046
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 4,994
I have some buddies who have just gotten CJOs and others who likely will soon. When shall I tell them that Trip thinks they will be able to hold 330/350/-400?
09-24-2023, 10:32 AM
#5048
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Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 4,994
I have no idea what opportunities they will or won’t have in the unknowable future, but I do know if 67 happens they’ll have lower seniority for their entire career when compared against baseline. As the senior guys almost instantly felt the absence of 1,800 pilots above them after VEOP, so too will everyone feel the presence of a similar number who stays two more years.
09-24-2023, 10:37 AM
#5049
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,594
Probably right around their 2 year anniversary when their freeze is up. The demand for a 95%+ seniority position with years and years of reserve(and unused short calls), working holidays/weekends and bounces on VA will not be very high.
09-24-2023, 10:41 AM
#5050
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,237
I’m curious how you define minimal?
I have no idea what opportunities they will or won’t have in the unknowable future, but I do know if 67 happens they’ll have lower seniority for their entire career when compared against baseline. As the senior guys almost instantly felt the absence of 1,800 pilots above them after VEOP, so too will everyone feel the presence of a similar number who stays two more years.
I have no idea what opportunities they will or won’t have in the unknowable future, but I do know if 67 happens they’ll have lower seniority for their entire career when compared against baseline. As the senior guys almost instantly felt the absence of 1,800 pilots above them after VEOP, so too will everyone feel the presence of a similar number who stays two more years.
IOW Should someone who hire on in 1990 retire at age 60...because well....rules
Should someone who hired on in 2001 retire at age 60 because of well....rules
Should someone hired on in 2010 retire at age 65 because of well....rules
Should someone who hired on in 2022 retire at age 65 because of well....rules
Should the only pilots who hire on after the rule change be able to work to age 67
How does this work in your world?
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