theUpsideDown

Math isnt his strong suit. He thought TA1 was a great deal.

Trip7

600 numbers is enormous? Overnight LAX 350A plug went from 2500 to 3400 off of one AE. An there a more to come every month.

FangsF15

Yes, Trip, for WB A it is. And I already told you all this below. And, it did not drop 1000 numbers on one AE, either.

It went from 2545 in the Jul AE, to 3097 Aug, to 3415 in Sep.

And again, LAX 350 is a tiny category which they are growing slightly. That always drives awards temporarily junior. Growth is the explanation, not some bold new direction.

So stop exaggerating 3400ish to be “almost 4000”. It’s sloppy at best, and intentionally misleading at worst.

Trip7

Ok 2 AEs instead of 1 to drop 1000 numbers. We have 3 more AEs left in 2023 alone let alone the 2024 AEs In preparation for Summer 2024. LAX being a small base is IMO, a poor excuse for pessimism. It's similar pessimism to the new hires won't be going to WB-B then when it happened the blame was placed on "seat locks".

Of course growth is the reason. That's the main reason behind my 2014 New Hires holding WB A left seat thesis. Between now and the end of 2024 we are scheduled to have 16 more 330/350 deliveries along with an increase in utilization with Shanghai and Auckland flying being spun up. The main threats to this thesis are Airbus supply chain issues slowing down deliveries or an unsuspected Black Swan event

Jaww

blue vortex

Here’s my take:

A few international 763s will be shed during this time frame, and at this point we will be getting no more than 14 more 330/350 by end of 2024. The latest confirmed numbers are 5/9. Top men say it will probably even be less than that. In addition, LATAM birds are due for reconfigurations and all the 20 legacy 359’s will be reconfigured from 306 to 275. So every single A350 will be out of service for at least a few months over the next few years. Also quite a few older 330s are going to be out of service the next few years for heavy checks. So the net gain of flying airframes is actually going to be very minimal. What everybody fails to think about is this: even if you suppose we’re gaining about a dozen net widebodies, where exactly will we fly them? We just gave up the Portland to Haneda slot like yesterday. Honolulu to Haneda is probably toast also. Yes, we are starting Zurich, Shannon and more Munich, but we are dropping Düsseldorf and some Maui. At the LCP meeting just a few days ago it was revealed that demand is softening a bit.

Also remember that as was discussed (ad nauseam) here a few weeks ago, this September AE was expected to go fairly junior due to the specific holiday training involved.

FangsF15

Maybe those WB deliveries are all growth and it drives WB A to historical juniority, maybe they retire some 767-300’s and/or refit some older 330’s or 350’s (like they did with the -400 in 2018-2019) with updated cabins which offsets some/many of them.

Either way, if you want credibility for your contention, quit wildly exaggerating numbers or rates to make your case.

myrkridia

Convenient to leave out the part where new hires aren't getting anywhere close to WBB now that seat locks are up.

Buck Rogers

Instead of all the , "Maybe, maybe, maybe", I'm looking for the true believers to pony up $1,000 in a bet with Trip to a charity.

He put the offer out there. Time to stop being keyboard warriors and put your money where your mouth is.

Trip has conviction(follow the money).....does anybody else?

My magic 8- ball says,................. "HIGHLY UNLIKELY"

Nick Bradshaw

I love how any time any one doesn't enthusiastically wave the flag and support Age 67, you guys crawl out of the woodwork and attack. What a bunch of clowns. So self serving and hypocritical.

I'm no kid. It would benefit me too. But I can see the hypocrisy that we all benefited from the advancement of mandatory retirements at 60 and then 65 for most of our careers, now suddenly you're at the end and you've changed your mind? At least be honest and say what everyone knows. It all about the money and has nothing to do with "fairness" or "health" or anything else.

You knew the mandatory retirement age when you showed up. You guys sit in your echo chambers and convince yourselves that this is a done deal and it's just and everyone wants it and then attack anyone who doesn't agree. Well I'm your peer and I don't want it. I'm sick of the selfishness and robbing from the future generations.

But hey, back to the 2023 AE discussion. I know you guys don't care what I think. I also know the democrat senate doesn't care what you think. I'll be like Trip7 and make a bold prediction. You will not be flying WB international over age 65 within 5 years. Take a screen shot.

Also, there's no way LAX 350 goes junior. What a strange prediction. Maybe DTW, but definitely not LAX.