Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
09-22-2023, 06:53 AM
#4941
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 861
That's just based on retirements. Status quo. No other variables.
09-22-2023, 07:22 AM
#4942
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2023
Posts: 82
It will pass. If people think the USA has a problem staffing airlines, imagine not having a USAF, USN and USA pumping out thousands of pilots a year, PLUS all the six-figure flight academies. This will be one of many tools to bridge the gap for developing nations, along with R-ATP, more sophisticated WB's with only two pilots, etc.
The last time the USA, Europe, Japan and Germany (which had sanctions against it) were in a depression there was an attempt to rebalance the power. This time is no different and it is Russia with the sanctions and BRICS+ attempting to rebalance the power. China's economy is toast, Russia, according to the media, is in a stalemate and North Korea is starving. Despite China's economic woes, their petroleum imports are at an all-time high. Russia's economy is suffering, their only real trade is petroleum, half of which is refined. They just stopped exporting refined crude... Chew on that. This could all be coincidence, or it looks exactly like Japan in the late 1930s stockpiling petroleum for a throwdown.
I am with you, the next one will be very swift- under 40 minutes. There is a disturbing case for career progression if the world descends into global conflict. You can bet every officer retired within the past 10 years or under the age of 55 will be called back to active duty, likely gutting half the seniority list and WB-A trends lower flying high-risk CRAF mission in contested airspace. Those under a certain age will likely be drafted.
The SPR is at a record low and I often times wonder if the Russians have just been using apartment buildings in Ukraine to function test their zircon cruise missiles. I would imagine any opening salvo will at least have conventional ICBMs dropping munitions all over the handful of refineries we do have, with oil rigs and shipping ports getting the same. This is a pretty negative path, but I have never seen Arleigh Burk destroyers camped off SAN, LAX, HNL, MIA and in the GOM. RIM-156A?
Back to thinking about dry wine and layover shoes.
Combine this with a depression and I don’t think it’s that far fetched to be getting hit with furlough threats next near by company to leverage us into concessions.
Yes I said depression. The current government policies are unsustainable and still fueling inflation. The average American has just about maxed out their credit. Once that happens, the spending is over.
Yes I said depression. The current government policies are unsustainable and still fueling inflation. The average American has just about maxed out their credit. Once that happens, the spending is over.
The SPR is at a record low and I often times wonder if the Russians have just been using apartment buildings in Ukraine to function test their zircon cruise missiles. I would imagine any opening salvo will at least have conventional ICBMs dropping munitions all over the handful of refineries we do have, with oil rigs and shipping ports getting the same. This is a pretty negative path, but I have never seen Arleigh Burk destroyers camped off SAN, LAX, HNL, MIA and in the GOM. RIM-156A?
Back to thinking about dry wine and layover shoes.
09-22-2023, 08:35 AM
#4943
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 996
It will pass. If people think the USA has a problem staffing airlines, imagine not having a USAF, USN and USA pumping out thousands of pilots a year, PLUS all the six-figure flight academies. This will be one of many tools to bridge the gap for developing nations, along with R-ATP, more sophisticated WB's with only two pilots, etc.
The last time the USA, Europe, Japan and Germany (which had sanctions against it) were in a depression there was an attempt to rebalance the power. This time is no different and it is Russia with the sanctions and BRICS+ attempting to rebalance the power. China's economy is toast, Russia, according to the media, is in a stalemate and North Korea is starving. Despite China's economic woes, their petroleum imports are at an all-time high. Russia's economy is suffering, their only real trade is petroleum, half of which is refined. They just stopped exporting refined crude... Chew on that. This could all be coincidence, or it looks exactly like Japan in the late 1930s stockpiling petroleum for a throwdown.
I am with you, the next one will be very swift- under 40 minutes. There is a disturbing case for career progression if the world descends into global conflict. You can bet every officer retired within the past 10 years or under the age of 55 will be called back to active duty, likely gutting half the seniority list and WB-A trends lower flying high-risk CRAF mission in contested airspace. Those under a certain age will likely be drafted.
The SPR is at a record low and I often times wonder if the Russians have just been using apartment buildings in Ukraine to function test their zircon cruise missiles. I would imagine any opening salvo will at least have conventional ICBMs dropping munitions all over the handful of refineries we do have, with oil rigs and shipping ports getting the same. This is a pretty negative path, but I have never seen Arleigh Burk destroyers camped off SAN, LAX, HNL, MIA and in the GOM. RIM-156A?
Back to thinking about dry wine and layover shoes.
The last time the USA, Europe, Japan and Germany (which had sanctions against it) were in a depression there was an attempt to rebalance the power. This time is no different and it is Russia with the sanctions and BRICS+ attempting to rebalance the power. China's economy is toast, Russia, according to the media, is in a stalemate and North Korea is starving. Despite China's economic woes, their petroleum imports are at an all-time high. Russia's economy is suffering, their only real trade is petroleum, half of which is refined. They just stopped exporting refined crude... Chew on that. This could all be coincidence, or it looks exactly like Japan in the late 1930s stockpiling petroleum for a throwdown.
I am with you, the next one will be very swift- under 40 minutes. There is a disturbing case for career progression if the world descends into global conflict. You can bet every officer retired within the past 10 years or under the age of 55 will be called back to active duty, likely gutting half the seniority list and WB-A trends lower flying high-risk CRAF mission in contested airspace. Those under a certain age will likely be drafted.
The SPR is at a record low and I often times wonder if the Russians have just been using apartment buildings in Ukraine to function test their zircon cruise missiles. I would imagine any opening salvo will at least have conventional ICBMs dropping munitions all over the handful of refineries we do have, with oil rigs and shipping ports getting the same. This is a pretty negative path, but I have never seen Arleigh Burk destroyers camped off SAN, LAX, HNL, MIA and in the GOM. RIM-156A?
Back to thinking about dry wine and layover shoes.
09-22-2023, 08:45 AM
#4944
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 670
It will pass. If people think the USA has a problem staffing airlines, imagine not having a USAF, USN and USA pumping out thousands of pilots a year, PLUS all the six-figure flight academies. This will be one of many tools to bridge the gap for developing nations, along with R-ATP, more sophisticated WB's with only two pilots, etc.
The last time the USA, Europe, Japan and Germany (which had sanctions against it) were in a depression there was an attempt to rebalance the power. This time is no different and it is Russia with the sanctions and BRICS+ attempting to rebalance the power. China's economy is toast, Russia, according to the media, is in a stalemate and North Korea is starving. Despite China's economic woes, their petroleum imports are at an all-time high. Russia's economy is suffering, their only real trade is petroleum, half of which is refined. They just stopped exporting refined crude... Chew on that. This could all be coincidence, or it looks exactly like Japan in the late 1930s stockpiling petroleum for a throwdown.
I am with you, the next one will be very swift- under 40 minutes. There is a disturbing case for career progression if the world descends into global conflict. You can bet every officer retired within the past 10 years or under the age of 55 will be called back to active duty, likely gutting half the seniority list and WB-A trends lower flying high-risk CRAF mission in contested airspace. Those under a certain age will likely be drafted.
The SPR is at a record low and I often times wonder if the Russians have just been using apartment buildings in Ukraine to function test their zircon cruise missiles. I would imagine any opening salvo will at least have conventional ICBMs dropping munitions all over the handful of refineries we do have, with oil rigs and shipping ports getting the same. This is a pretty negative path, but I have never seen Arleigh Burk destroyers camped off SAN, LAX, HNL, MIA and in the GOM. RIM-156A?
Back to thinking about dry wine and layover shoes.
The last time the USA, Europe, Japan and Germany (which had sanctions against it) were in a depression there was an attempt to rebalance the power. This time is no different and it is Russia with the sanctions and BRICS+ attempting to rebalance the power. China's economy is toast, Russia, according to the media, is in a stalemate and North Korea is starving. Despite China's economic woes, their petroleum imports are at an all-time high. Russia's economy is suffering, their only real trade is petroleum, half of which is refined. They just stopped exporting refined crude... Chew on that. This could all be coincidence, or it looks exactly like Japan in the late 1930s stockpiling petroleum for a throwdown.
I am with you, the next one will be very swift- under 40 minutes. There is a disturbing case for career progression if the world descends into global conflict. You can bet every officer retired within the past 10 years or under the age of 55 will be called back to active duty, likely gutting half the seniority list and WB-A trends lower flying high-risk CRAF mission in contested airspace. Those under a certain age will likely be drafted.
The SPR is at a record low and I often times wonder if the Russians have just been using apartment buildings in Ukraine to function test their zircon cruise missiles. I would imagine any opening salvo will at least have conventional ICBMs dropping munitions all over the handful of refineries we do have, with oil rigs and shipping ports getting the same. This is a pretty negative path, but I have never seen Arleigh Burk destroyers camped off SAN, LAX, HNL, MIA and in the GOM. RIM-156A?
Back to thinking about dry wine and layover shoes.
This reads just like the always negative, angry blowhards on CC. This place is really starting to read like the same 10 people posting over and over with multiple accounts. Kinda losing its value. Less and less useful info. Maybe I'll go back into APC hibernation.
09-22-2023, 08:55 AM
#4945
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,792
That would be an enormous shift in bidding behavior. Even with all the crazy, I-never-thought-I’d-see-the-day awards coming out of Covid, WB A is the one metric that never really wavered. The only possible path is via huge numbers of WB deliveries, and we don’t have nearly enough to close that gap in 2 years. Probably not even in 4 (for a 5XXX seniority number).
And we haven’t even brought age 67 into the chat…. (Or the recently mentioned WW III
)
09-22-2023, 09:05 AM
#4947
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 287
Sounds like it’s time to get into the end-of-days stockpile business. PM me for your fallout shelter supplies. I’m going to be rich. RICH I tell you!!! Hahahaha.
09-22-2023, 09:09 AM
#4948
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,792
Recently, at a DTW Crew Resources visit, the question was asked, and CR didn’t seem that worried about any effects. Read into that what you will, but I’d bet the company is pretty tuned into the discussions and any cascading effects.
So, I’d guess the company is not worried about having to deal with displacements due to what ICAO will/won’t allow. But again, no one really knows… yet.
09-22-2023, 09:18 AM
#4949
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2023
Posts: 1,504
No one knows.
Recently, at a DTW Crew Resources visit, the question was asked, and CR didn’t seem that worried about any effects. Read into that what you will, but I’d bet the company is pretty tuned into the discussions and any cascading effects.
So, I’d guess the company is not worried about having to deal with displacements due to what ICAO will/won’t allow. But again, no one really knows… yet.
Recently, at a DTW Crew Resources visit, the question was asked, and CR didn’t seem that worried about any effects. Read into that what you will, but I’d bet the company is pretty tuned into the discussions and any cascading effects.
So, I’d guess the company is not worried about having to deal with displacements due to what ICAO will/won’t allow. But again, no one really knows… yet.
09-22-2023, 09:29 AM
#4950
looking for underboob
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: NYC 7ER LCA
Posts: 902
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