Originally Posted by CrazyEight

Long time lurker, things are finally getting exciting for 2000-2001 hires. That being said, I think WB-A for 2014 is a longer way off than most think:

Domestic trips are horrible, not even 15% in category can protect you from circadian swaps and reroutes. The days of 16 to 18 hour layovers are gone and many senior NB-As are transitioning to the WB world; one 21-hour 3-day with a bunk is better with 24 hours off in the middle than anything domestic- except maybe a Carribean turn with a 24-hour layover (those are like gold).

Second, there are something like 1200+ pilots hired between the furloughs 2000-2001 hires and the 2014s. Most of the 2007 and Crazy 08s will have kids out of school and be ready for the plug WB-A seat in a few years, especially after 18+ years on the property and stagnation their first six years. The junior 2007 hire is 4700 or so, still around 1000 pilots away from plug WB-A, which equates to 2 years. The 3800 hundred plug number cannot hold all the 2007s so some will have to wait a few years past the plug.

The jump in pay from NB-A to WB-A is just too significant to skip. The wildcard could be 2007 and 2008 hires delaying WB-A two years (500 retirements a year) and staying in very lucrative WB-B seats from 3800 to 2500 or so. This might allow a 2014 to grab a plug seat before a 2007. However, you also have former NWA 2000 hires lumped in with DAL 2007 hires, so I doubt after 25 years on property these pilots will be happy spending the last part of their careers NB-A or WB-B, they will upgrade and transition.

If the vast majority of 2007 to 2008 hires take WB-A, that will lock up the movement for a while. Younger (under 30) 2007 and 2008 hires are going to spend 14+ years in the top 10% of the entire airline, there are only so many WB-A positions at the airline to begin with. I am not sure a 2007 to 2008 hire will risk having younger 2014s slot into WB-A which could dry up the movement for the following:

The ER's are old and will go away next downturn, replacements will be slower than expected (they always are)

The company loves to grow via joint venture (prove me wrong after 16 years)

There is a downturn coming (its not personal, its just the business cycle)

I am leaving out world conflicts as that is a major wildcard in and of itself.

Age 67.99 is likely to pass

Without age 67.99, my best guess is 2030 before a 2014 can reliably expect to put in their WB-A card and be awarded that position on a given AE. Stranger things have happened.

Originally Posted by hockeypilot44

That’s not the issue. The issue is commute in for a 4 day to be told to go home and come back next day to fly days 2,3, and 4 of the trip because only the first couple legs are being bought off. Of course this is during an irops event so the flights are unpredictable and full.

Originally Posted by JamesBond

And the senior FO isn't always the one released either.

Originally Posted by samimifs

Any rumors on next AE?

Originally Posted by The Localizer

first week of october

Originally Posted by JamesBond

And the senior FO isn't always the one released either.

Originally Posted by Scoop

Can you go into more detail on potential circumstances that might cause this?

Scoop

Originally Posted by Scoop

Can you go into more detail on potential circumstances that might cause this?

Scoop

Originally Posted by p3flteng

A CAPT LCA was on reserve and they assigned him on his on call days to do an Atlantic route qual for an FO on my trip last month. We all sign in and the LCA says Capt unless you want to go you are released. The FO getting the route qual..Newhire.. says , wait..I need to be in XYZ for a college visit with my son..do you mind if I get release instead….I said…sorry that’s not how that works..senior available is me, the Capt…..so….sorry about your luck., besides you are the one getting the checkout!

just one way where the senior FO might not get released.

Originally Posted by Scoop

2000 hires can now hold WB-A and its been probably over a year since the first 2000 hires were awarded 765 A in NYC. Although there is 14 years between them there is only about 2-3 years worth of hiring in Pilot numbers. So a 2014 hire holding WB-A in 2025 would not surprise me at all.

This was driven home to me when it took me 17 years (early 2000 hire) to upgrade and 6 months later it dropped to three years in LAX 737 A in the spring 2017 MOAB. Which the way is the original MOAB or MOAB Classic if your a Coke drinker.

As Trip would say - "Its a brave new world."

Scoop