Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
#4912
That is not true, the current language appears to go into effect the day it's signed. Says nothing about waiting for ICAO, that would defeat the purpose of those who advocate for the thing... waiting indefinitely on a UN bureaucracy to get what they want???
#4913
Long time lurker, things are finally getting exciting for 2000-2001 hires. That being said, I think WB-A for 2014 is a longer way off than most think:
Domestic trips are horrible, not even 15% in category can protect you from circadian swaps and reroutes. The days of 16 to 18 hour layovers are gone and many senior NB-As are transitioning to the WB world; one 21-hour 3-day with a bunk is better with 24 hours off in the middle than anything domestic- except maybe a Carribean turn with a 24-hour layover (those are like gold).
Second, there are something like 1200+ pilots hired between the furloughs 2000-2001 hires and the 2014s. Most of the 2007 and Crazy 08s will have kids out of school and be ready for the plug WB-A seat in a few years, especially after 18+ years on the property and stagnation their first six years. The junior 2007 hire is 4700 or so, still around 1000 pilots away from plug WB-A, which equates to 2 years. The 3800 hundred plug number cannot hold all the 2007s so some will have to wait a few years past the plug.
The jump in pay from NB-A to WB-A is just too significant to skip. The wildcard could be 2007 and 2008 hires delaying WB-A two years (500 retirements a year) and staying in very lucrative WB-B seats from 3800 to 2500 or so. This might allow a 2014 to grab a plug seat before a 2007. However, you also have former NWA 2000 hires lumped in with DAL 2007 hires, so I doubt after 25 years on property these pilots will be happy spending the last part of their careers NB-A or WB-B, they will upgrade and transition.
If the vast majority of 2007 to 2008 hires take WB-A, that will lock up the movement for a while. Younger (under 30) 2007 and 2008 hires are going to spend 14+ years in the top 10% of the entire airline, there are only so many WB-A positions at the airline to begin with. I am not sure a 2007 to 2008 hire will risk having younger 2014s slot into WB-A which could dry up the movement for the following:
The ER's are old and will go away next downturn, replacements will be slower than expected (they always are)
The company loves to grow via joint venture (prove me wrong after 16 years)
There is a downturn coming (its not personal, its just the business cycle)
I am leaving out world conflicts as that is a major wildcard in and of itself.
Age 67.99 is likely to pass
Without age 67.99, my best guess is 2030 before a 2014 can reliably expect to put in their WB-A card and be awarded that position on a given AE. Stranger things have happened.
Domestic trips are horrible, not even 15% in category can protect you from circadian swaps and reroutes. The days of 16 to 18 hour layovers are gone and many senior NB-As are transitioning to the WB world; one 21-hour 3-day with a bunk is better with 24 hours off in the middle than anything domestic- except maybe a Carribean turn with a 24-hour layover (those are like gold).
Second, there are something like 1200+ pilots hired between the furloughs 2000-2001 hires and the 2014s. Most of the 2007 and Crazy 08s will have kids out of school and be ready for the plug WB-A seat in a few years, especially after 18+ years on the property and stagnation their first six years. The junior 2007 hire is 4700 or so, still around 1000 pilots away from plug WB-A, which equates to 2 years. The 3800 hundred plug number cannot hold all the 2007s so some will have to wait a few years past the plug.
The jump in pay from NB-A to WB-A is just too significant to skip. The wildcard could be 2007 and 2008 hires delaying WB-A two years (500 retirements a year) and staying in very lucrative WB-B seats from 3800 to 2500 or so. This might allow a 2014 to grab a plug seat before a 2007. However, you also have former NWA 2000 hires lumped in with DAL 2007 hires, so I doubt after 25 years on property these pilots will be happy spending the last part of their careers NB-A or WB-B, they will upgrade and transition.
If the vast majority of 2007 to 2008 hires take WB-A, that will lock up the movement for a while. Younger (under 30) 2007 and 2008 hires are going to spend 14+ years in the top 10% of the entire airline, there are only so many WB-A positions at the airline to begin with. I am not sure a 2007 to 2008 hire will risk having younger 2014s slot into WB-A which could dry up the movement for the following:
The ER's are old and will go away next downturn, replacements will be slower than expected (they always are)
The company loves to grow via joint venture (prove me wrong after 16 years)
There is a downturn coming (its not personal, its just the business cycle)
I am leaving out world conflicts as that is a major wildcard in and of itself.
Age 67.99 is likely to pass
Without age 67.99, my best guess is 2030 before a 2014 can reliably expect to put in their WB-A card and be awarded that position on a given AE. Stranger things have happened.
Now I don't know if that's 0000 Zulu, your domicile time zone, your theater time zone, or the time zone you were born in. So maybe you could get a few extra hours.
#4914
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,779
Long time lurker, things are finally getting exciting for 2000-2001 hires. That being said, I think WB-A for 2014 is a longer way off than most think:
Domestic trips are horrible, not even 15% in category can protect you from circadian swaps and reroutes. The days of 16 to 18 hour layovers are gone and many senior NB-As are transitioning to the WB world; one 21-hour 3-day with a bunk is better with 24 hours off in the middle than anything domestic- except maybe a Carribean turn with a 24-hour layover (those are like gold)...
Domestic trips are horrible, not even 15% in category can protect you from circadian swaps and reroutes. The days of 16 to 18 hour layovers are gone and many senior NB-As are transitioning to the WB world; one 21-hour 3-day with a bunk is better with 24 hours off in the middle than anything domestic- except maybe a Carribean turn with a 24-hour layover (those are like gold)...
C2019’s NB soft money is making 21 hour 4-days pay 26 hours. 26:15 5-days are paying 31+ hours. Add a RRPY or 1 GS and the money is the same. Now the decision is do I want to give up holidays, great vacation, weekends off and a line to make essentially the same money on reserve WB with bad vacation, work weekends, bunk sleep, etc. Right as these 2000/2017 pilots hit the window to maybe award WB A, the payday isn’t there anymore. Same thing happened with 7ER A 2 years ago and it went junior… almost to new hire; it’s not the same anymore.
#4915
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 427
The proposed age limit is 67.000. You will not be able to fly after 0000 on your 67th birthday. Stop misrepresenting that.
Now I don't know if that's 0000 Zulu, your domicile time zone, your theater time zone, or the time zone you were born in. So maybe you could get a few extra hours.
Now I don't know if that's 0000 Zulu, your domicile time zone, your theater time zone, or the time zone you were born in. So maybe you could get a few extra hours.
#4916
Your post nails it for the WB A wall, but the horrible domestic trips are finally starting to pay like WB and might influence WB A AE bidding behavior.
C2019’s NB soft money is making 21 hour 4-days pay 26 hours. 26:15 5-days are paying 31+ hours. Add a RRPY or 1 GS and the money is the same. Now the decision is do I want to give up holidays, great vacation, weekends off and a line to make essentially the same money on reserve WB with bad vacation, work weekends, bunk sleep, etc. Right as these 2000/2017 pilots hit the window to maybe award WB A, the payday isn’t there anymore.
C2019’s NB soft money is making 21 hour 4-days pay 26 hours. 26:15 5-days are paying 31+ hours. Add a RRPY or 1 GS and the money is the same. Now the decision is do I want to give up holidays, great vacation, weekends off and a line to make essentially the same money on reserve WB with bad vacation, work weekends, bunk sleep, etc. Right as these 2000/2017 pilots hit the window to maybe award WB A, the payday isn’t there anymore.
Let’s keep that hush hush.
#4917
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,779
Right as these 2000/2017 2007 pilots hit the window to maybe award WB A, the payday isn’t there anymore.
Edit: fat-fingered 2007 and too late to change my post.
Edit: fat-fingered 2007 and too late to change my post.
#4919
That’s not the issue. The issue is commute in for a 4 day to be told to go home and come back next day to fly days 2,3, and 4 of the trip because only the first couple legs are being bought off. Of course this is during an irops event so the flights are unpredictable and full.
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