Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
08-23-2023, 07:32 AM
#4451
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 670
LMAO @ "Wall" is condescending. How you equate a wall with a glass ceiling is even more hilarious. Have you visited the Great Wall of China? Did you find it condescending? 😂
Anyways, I'd define the Wall as 2014 and later hire, but we can call 2007-2010 hires the Moat. Once the Moat is crossed the Castle is being stormed and the Wall will Fall.
Anyways, I'd define the Wall as 2014 and later hire, but we can call 2007-2010 hires the Moat. Once the Moat is crossed the Castle is being stormed and the Wall will Fall.
Give it a rest. Your bootstrapper faux optimism is tiring. It just makes you look like you think your **** is a little sweeter than everyone else's. Well, I'm sure you do. It's obvious.
08-23-2023, 07:39 AM
#4452
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,660
You're one case out of how many thousands? Do you have kids? A family? Not having one provides more flexibility for you yes? I wasn't looking at 320 in depth either, I was looking at 73 since that is what Trip is on. What I did see was most reserves getting used to the RSV Guarantee. Again, I don't see your experience this summer as a norm. If this was the case, we'd have pilots beating down the door for NB A - yet those in the mid range (I specifically mentioned that for a reason) of 5-7k seniority are migrating to WB B and my prediction is they will continue to do so as the the NB rotations continue to degrade. RG is back and he's more powerful (well position wise anyway) than ever. Contract be damned he's going to grind the grist and turn the NB fleet(s) into hyper regionals. Also the fact you were able to accomplish what you did meant someone senior to you didn't want to. Again, you're summer schedule is an outlying exception to the majority of NB A pilots.
Not here to pick fights, I looked at last summers and this summers numbers so far and it's different. I will predict the amount of GS continues to decrease as C19 becomes fully implemented. SS for example I think will take many of those away. Your rotations will grow worse as the optimizer is dialed to 13, the opportunity for someone as junior as you to pick GS up will decrease and the suck meter will increase. They have a plan for the NB fleets. If it plays out, unless you are ~ <25% in BES you're QOL is going to slide significantly. The only place to shelter from the storm is going to be in the WB fleets. Unless you enjoy the beatings. Yes, certain people at certain times will pick off some low hanging fruit. That's been the case for sometime.
#GoFlex
Not here to pick fights, I looked at last summers and this summers numbers so far and it's different. I will predict the amount of GS continues to decrease as C19 becomes fully implemented. SS for example I think will take many of those away. Your rotations will grow worse as the optimizer is dialed to 13, the opportunity for someone as junior as you to pick GS up will decrease and the suck meter will increase. They have a plan for the NB fleets. If it plays out, unless you are ~ <25% in BES you're QOL is going to slide significantly. The only place to shelter from the storm is going to be in the WB fleets. Unless you enjoy the beatings. Yes, certain people at certain times will pick off some low hanging fruit. That's been the case for sometime.
#GoFlex
08-23-2023, 07:39 AM
#4453
Back on Reserve
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Position: A330 FO
Posts: 728
Ultimately, it means different things to different people...
... ...
No, the “wall” is a seniority number or overall % to hold. For time immortal, it has needed something like 75-80% to hold NB A or WB B, and less than 20% on property to hold WB A.
... ...
All that said, I stand by my analysis. Trip’s not far off, but it’s a bridge too far to me. I would be delighted to be proven wrong. But it’s going to take more deliveries to get to a 45XX ballpark than we have IMO.
... ...
No, the “wall” is a seniority number or overall % to hold. For time immortal, it has needed something like 75-80% to hold NB A or WB B, and less than 20% on property to hold WB A.
... ...
All that said, I stand by my analysis. Trip’s not far off, but it’s a bridge too far to me. I would be delighted to be proven wrong. But it’s going to take more deliveries to get to a 45XX ballpark than we have IMO.
I think it can be calculated (or maybe estimated) by #WB aircraft on property, # of 3-pilot-vs- 4-pilot ops, ratio of NB hour -vs- WB hours, etc.
If you use a seniority list of 16250 (fluctuating due to hire/retire numbers), 20% would be #3250 as a raw number. The fact that the junior WBA is 3825 (~23%) on this AE says we're historically 'normal' (considering the number of super-senior NBA/WBB that'll never move).
Retire/replace some 767-300 or -400 with 330/350 and you might see this percentage change a bit, but it all comes down to definition of WB (can use the WB 'pay band' now), type of AC and type of flying. I would love Love LOVE to see 4500+ WBA, but I'm not sure the math supports going as high as 29-30% system seniority WBA with our near-term flying.
08-23-2023, 08:02 AM
#4454
Moderator
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,897
You're one case out of how many thousands? Do you have kids? A family? Not having one provides more flexibility for you yes? I wasn't looking at 320 in depth either, I was looking at 73 since that is what Trip is on. What I did see was most reserves getting used to the RSV Guarantee. Again, I don't see your experience this summer as a norm. If this was the case, we'd have pilots beating down the door for NB A - yet those in the mid range (I specifically mentioned that for a reason) of 5-7k seniority are migrating to WB B and my prediction is they will continue to do so as the the NB rotations continue to degrade. RG is back and he's more powerful (well position wise anyway) than ever. Contract be damned he's going to grind the grist and turn the NB fleet(s) into hyper regionals. Also the fact you were able to accomplish what you did meant someone senior to you didn't want to. Again, you're summer schedule is an outlying exception to the majority of NB A pilots.
I think you're underestimating the number of those on the other side of that coin. For every NB A that's working to reserve guarantee, I bet I could show you a pilot that is flying less than 10 days a month. I know I can show you one that is averaging less than 5 days/month this year, almost all that is GS. This month, I've flown 5 days (3 x GS) with zero overnights and only have 3 reserve days left. I've only spent 5 nights in hotels since 1Jun, once by choice (GS) and 1 due to MX. Many reasons people aren't beating down the the door for NB A, one of them being this misconception. This from a former WB B who planned on never leaving.
08-23-2023, 12:10 PM
#4455
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2020
Posts: 279
At some point the party ends. It will be interesting to see how this effects bidding behavior going forward.
08-23-2023, 12:16 PM
#4456
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: 350A
Posts: 429
You're the Kit Darby of Delta. He was eventually right too. Broken clock, etc. Fact is you've been wrong way more times than you were right.
Give it a rest. Your bootstrapper faux optimism is tiring. It just makes you look like you think your **** is a little sweeter than everyone else's. Well, I'm sure you do. It's obvious.
Give it a rest. Your bootstrapper faux optimism is tiring. It just makes you look like you think your **** is a little sweeter than everyone else's. Well, I'm sure you do. It's obvious.
Trip7: “This should be quite an exciting June, big WB Capt AE plus WB order announcement at the Paris Air Show. Not too long after that, the Widebody(Ex-7ER) A wall falls to 2014 hires. What a time to be an airline pilot.”
Not too long after that? We are still 2000 numbers away.
Maybe Kit can hire him. Ofc I suspect RG already is…
08-23-2023, 12:47 PM
#4457
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
You're the Kit Darby of Delta. He was eventually right too. Broken clock, etc. Fact is you've been wrong way more times than you were right.
Give it a rest. Your bootstrapper faux optimism is tiring. It just makes you look like you think your **** is a little sweeter than everyone else's. Well, I'm sure you do. It's obvious.
Give it a rest. Your bootstrapper faux optimism is tiring. It just makes you look like you think your **** is a little sweeter than everyone else's. Well, I'm sure you do. It's obvious.
08-23-2023, 12:49 PM
#4458
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,304
08-23-2023, 01:34 PM
#4460
Rerouted On Weekends
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Position: 717A
Posts: 2,937
I like the positivity. I haven’t always agreed with you in the past, but often I think you’re just as crazy as the negative majority on the other side. You provide balance and a different perspective. Most of what you write I hope comes true. But you are starting to get a BS AE vibe.
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