blue vortex

Yes, how is the wall defined? I’ve heard 2007, I’ve heard 2014. And besides that… calling it a wall comes across as implying a glass ceiling or even discriminatory, quite ironic given who promotes the term. You do know we have a seniority list, right? 😁

So how was it even termed a wall in the first place? We had fences many years ago from the mergers, but this is nothing like that.

Wouldn’t it be less condescending to say I think WBA will go to 2014 hires in the year 202X?

FangsF15

Ultimately, it means different things to different people... But it makes no sense in any context for the “Wall” to be a particular DOH. That’s a perpetually changing target, ad infinitum. The “wall” would always be falling.

No, the “wall” is a seniority number or overall % to hold. For time immortal, it has needed something like 75-80% to hold NB A or WB B, and less than 20% on property to hold WB A.

The NB A “wall” and WB B “wall” have obviously fallen (but are both being rebuilt post-Covid to an extent, more so the WB B). The WB A “wall” has stayed rock-solid through time. It will crumble a little with near-term deliveries, and especially when the 767-300’s are replaced with a WB pay-band airframe (330/350?) several years from now from a yet-unannounced order.

All that said, I stand by my analysis. Trip’s not far off, but it’s a bridge too far to me. I would be delighted to be proven wrong. But it’s going to take more deliveries to get to a 45XX ballpark than we have IMO.

Hotel Kilo

You're one case out of how many thousands? Do you have kids? A family? Not having one provides more flexibility for you yes? I wasn't looking at 320 in depth either, I was looking at 73 since that is what Trip is on. What I did see was most reserves getting used to the RSV Guarantee. Again, I don't see your experience this summer as a norm. If this was the case, we'd have pilots beating down the door for NB A - yet those in the mid range (I specifically mentioned that for a reason) of 5-7k seniority are migrating to WB B and my prediction is they will continue to do so as the the NB rotations continue to degrade. RG is back and he's more powerful (well position wise anyway) than ever. Contract be damned he's going to grind the grist and turn the NB fleet(s) into hyper regionals. Also the fact you were able to accomplish what you did meant someone senior to you didn't want to. Again, you're summer schedule is an outlying exception to the majority of NB A pilots.

Not here to pick fights, I looked at last summers and this summers numbers so far and it's different. I will predict the amount of GS continues to decrease as C19 becomes fully implemented. SS for example I think will take many of those away. Your rotations will grow worse as the optimizer is dialed to 13, the opportunity for someone as junior as you to pick GS up will decrease and the suck meter will increase. They have a plan for the NB fleets. If it plays out, unless you are ~ <25% in BES you're QOL is going to slide significantly. The only place to shelter from the storm is going to be in the WB fleets. Unless you enjoy the beatings. Yes, certain people at certain times will pick off some low hanging fruit. That's been the case for sometime.

#GoFlex

Vsop

I actually think this will drive more GS. I predict that as pilots work more there will be an increase of fatigue and sick calls with less than 18hr call out for reserves to cover.

I’m a very junior (>85%) NB A, and I’ve been offered at least 1 GS every off day this summer. I’ve only taken ones are convenient for me, but that’s still made for a good summer. Last summer I was a mid seniority (~45-55%) WB B and got fewer GS calls by far.

CX500T

I tactically greenslipped to get days I wanted off, got RES as a coverage award and get paid more.

Again. l am a married guy. No kids but a neice who we take places/do stuff with. I do check open time and watch it vs reserve availability and do run things by my wife "if I get a 3 day tomorrow, I will be off to go to the race at Southwick, I'll take Metro north to Poughkeepsie and uber to place you can pick me up"

There's also "this day is neices birthday party, you need to get the pool ready, and be home that day"

Again. Not that senior.
Not local.
18 hour call FTMFW.

It's making reserve better and making it easy to roll thunder, or in my case, hear thunder in the distance while getting days I want off for motocross races.

m3113n1a1

Yep.. as 75% NBA I've been bidding reserve. With 2-3 greenslips a month been crediting 100 hours a month with probably 13 days of actually having to go to the airport. Plenty of GS in my category still.

CX500T

yep
JUNE 122:40 8 days worked, 14 vacation days
JULY 135:11 13 days worked, 3 of them CQ
AUG 115:38 7 days worked, 3 of them CQ #2, 6 RES days to go. Might get GS3 might not.

Plus a couple illegal reroutes in the ACE process that will probably add 10-20 hours.

Trip7

Thru the end of 224 Delta will take delivery of 7 A350s and 16(possibly less due to supply chain issues) 330s. That's 23 WB aircraft added in just under 18 months. China flying about to pick back up driving utilization, block hours, and required pilot staffing back up. More SA flying to come as the LATAM JV develops. As long as the supply chain issue isn't too drastic the WB A Wall will Fall

Trip7

LMAO @ "Wall" is condescending. How you equate a wall with a glass ceiling is even more hilarious. Have you visited the Great Wall of China? Did you find it condescending? 😂

Anyways, I'd define the Wall as 2014 and later hire, but we can call 2007-2010 hires the Moat. Once the Moat is crossed the Castle is being stormed and the Wall will Fall.

mattmatt

we don’t need no education
we don’t need no thought control