Originally Posted by Trip7

Prediction:

The Wall will Fall within 12 months.

Dark Theory:

With sit and extended duty pay plus raining GS NB A will become so lucrative many will pull bids for reserve for years WB A positions and hold off til line holder seniority.
​​​​​

Originally Posted by FangsF15

Your overoptimism continues, IMO. The most Senior 2007 hire is currently 4778. In 12 Months, after 409 scheduled retirements, that pilot will be 4369. We don't have enough WB deliveries to drive WB A dropping a minimum of 544 more numbers from ~3800 to 4369. I could see 2007 hires being awarded WB A within 2 years, maybe, but not 1.

Interesting side note... The subsequent 1000 pilots on the seniority list are about half 2007/08 South hires, and about half 2000/01 North hires.

Originally Posted by m3113n1a1

So 2007-2025 is 18 years to widebody captain...not bad! And better than today's new hires will do.

Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo

Where (BE) is it raining GS on the NB A side (specifically 73/320)??? .

Originally Posted by CX500T

NYC 320A 86%
June. 2 weeks vacation. 2 green slips. 3 banked pb days. 1 4 day long call carryout from May that encroached on vacation giving another pb.

July. 3days CQ.
03 July SCC for 1:00
yelliw slipped a 1 day 4 July, so paid like a GS.
3 in base GS
1 oob GS
banked 1 pb day

August
3 more days CQ (fatigued out round 1 in july due to hotel)
2 GS for 4 days plus reroute pay on both. Banked 2 pb days

Haven't flown a trip on straught pay since a carryout trip from May.

I commute. I'm fairly junior.

I will have gone to the last four rounds of pro motocross to help out friends.

Haven't worked a single extra day.

It's been a great summer.

Originally Posted by Trip7

Prediction:

The Wall will Fall within 12 months.

Dark Theory:

With sit and extended duty pay plus raining GS NB A will become so lucrative many will pull bids for reserve for years WB A positions and hold off til line holder seniority.
​​​​​

Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo

Where (BE) is it raining GS on the NB A side (specifically 73/320)??? July and August don't show that for NY, DTW, LA, MSP, SLC, SEA. Certainly not like what happened last summer. So I'm curious. Also I noticed that NYC NB (specifically the 73) trips have degraded, lots of rotations touching ATL now. Those primo island 2-3 days (even the one day turns are reduced significantly) are now having some DH added or are filtering the 73 crews thru ATL. Looking at the wides it seems that unless in the top 20 of BE, the trips are turning into garbage. Friend of mine (he's around 1k seniority) bid from 73A to 7ER A. I asked him why, he said the trips had degraded so much on the 73 side he had to bail. I don't think the contract is going to help much in that regard. So I see the midrange folks (5-7k on the SL) probably going more to WB B as the NB schedules continue to degrade.

#GoFLex. We're all pulling for you buddy. Next time for sure. And if we ever end up in ICN together the soju and bulgogi are on me.

Originally Posted by FangsF15

Your overoptimism continues, IMO. The most Senior 2007 hire is currently 4778. In 12 Months, after 409 scheduled retirements, that pilot will be 4369. We don't have enough WB deliveries to drive WB A dropping a minimum of 544 more numbers from ~3800 to 4369. I could see 2007 hires being awarded WB A within 2 years, maybe, but not 1.

Interesting side note... The subsequent 1000 pilots on the seniority list are about half 2007/08 South hires, and about half 2000/01 North hires.

Originally Posted by tcco94

To me this just kind of proves it’s possible. 409 retirements for a gap of 544 with the airline growing WB fleets and numerous 4-man routes but that’s being said it’s “over optimistic”.

I’m not saying it will happen, but I certainly don’t view it as an over optimistic look. To me both seem plausible over the next 12 months.

my prediction is that it surpasses 4k before 12 months. Just my 2c. Trip normally drives me crazy with his comments, but I don’t find his guess that wild.

Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo

Where (BE) is it raining GS on the NB A side (specifically 73/320)??? July and August don't show that for NY, DTW, LA, MSP, SLC, SEA. Certainly not like what happened last summer. So I'm curious. Also I noticed that NYC NB (specifically the 73) trips have degraded, lots of rotations touching ATL now. Those primo island 2-3 days (even the one day turns are reduced significantly) are now having some DH added or are filtering the 73 crews thru ATL. Looking at the wides it seems that unless in the top 20 of BE, the trips are turning into garbage. Friend of mine (he's around 1k seniority) bid from 73A to 7ER A. I asked him why, he said the trips had degraded so much on the 73 side he had to bail. I don't think the contract is going to help much in that regard. So I see the midrange folks (5-7k on the SL) probably going more to WB B as the NB schedules continue to degrade.

#GoFLex. We're all pulling for you buddy. Next time for sure. And if we ever end up in ICN together the soju and bulgogi are on me.