tcco94

There was another email that wasn’t from BK and from the RCC which I was referencing. I went digging back and see the email from BK and other C16, which I didn’t remember. Not the best look for all of us either.

anyways, I always felt it was a stupid point to argue over. I wasn’t trying to come off as a supporter of all this stuff said but it definitely comes off that way as I read it back. So I apologize.

peepz

Next time in Atlanta say ten Delta Hail Marys, and it’ll all be forgiven.

Jokes aside, I think the same thing. The “territorial” our flying crowd needs to chill.

FangsF15

All good, man. Good discussion points.

PilotWombat

So first, I'm just the messenger. These are the numbers they used when discussing future hiring. I claim no responsibility for the company's assumptions or plans.

But...with those numbers, that's 5000 new pilots by the end of 2026, minus a little over 1800 mandatory retirements (67 not included...). So yeah, somewhere about 19,000 by then. I wanted to ask what their goal size was, but the conversation drifted away from that topic.

FlexManFlex

Thats great! So for those hired in 2020 at 14,600 that means they’ll be 45% (8,700 / 19,000) in their first 10 years haha. That could be a 33 year old at 45%… awesome!

Abouttime2fish

Something about counting chickens … or Miata’s … comes to mind.

FlexManFlex

Well then take away a third and they’re still 60% seniority in 10 years DOT. That’s like a dream come true for most pilots and that would be a BAD scenario

Hotel Kilo

You go Flex. Keep that positive vibe.

#GoFlex

saturn

We'll, lets look at our orderbook. Can't grow 4% without a fleet to offer the extra capacity. Here's our backlog summary:

• 120 A321neo. Deliveries through 2027. 70 additional options.
• 100 737-10MAX. Deliveries start 2025-2029. 30 additional options
• 69 A220-300. Deliveries go through 2027. 14 additional options.
• 16 A330-900. Deliveries through 2025.
• 16 A350-900. Deliveries through 2027.

289 NBs(+84 options)
+32 WBs
=321 (405 w/options)

By EOY 2027: ~270 deliveries. We certainly will retire out some old 320s, 757s and 767s. Also, we've seen plenty of missed targets on deliveries. So it's unclear what the actual fleet size will be. But from a network/fleet perspective, 4% growth is about +35-40 new hulls per year (we have about 915 mainline now). Add 270 jets, retire out about 80 (whispers of about 11 767s, 30 320s, 40 757s)..thats about 1100 mainline by 2027, or 4% annual growth. And I'm not totally sure what they mean by 4%. Could be seats (ASMs), revenue (RSMs) or fleet size. Either way, yes, barring a recession, we have firm commitments to grow mainline. Pilot group size will expand. Hiring 1000+ per year makes sense through this decade.

DWC CAP10 USAF

I thought the original 321NEO order was 100 firm / 100 options, and we exercised 55 options, so should be 155 firm / 45 options?

just going by memory…very possible I missed an incremental order press release.