FangsF15

There are always more positions awarded than posted due to secondary awards (aka "backfills") as pilots bid out. As has been said by many people over time, BWYWWWYB. IOW, have a bid in the system if you really want to make a move. Someone will get a pleasant surprise, might as well be you.

I respectfully submit that IF they keep to their plan and keep monthly bids, they will all have relatively few openings, WB or otherwise. It's just simple math - 3000 vacancies in a year spread over 3-4 small/1 large bid will have some big numbers and result in huge movement. But 3000 vacancies spread over 12 bids (or thereabouts) must equal smaller bids with small numbers. There may be a 'spike' here or there in individual categories, but what it comes down to is what training will occur in a given month. Historically, they have had a MOAB in the early fall to staff for the following summer. But they may not do that if they really plan on monthly bids. TBD. I suspect once they see how the next 1-2 bids go (3-4 total), they will reassess. IF that's true, the earliest a MOAB would happen is around the holidays, if it happens at all.

But to your point about FOMO... Age 67 could bring movement to a slow crawl. So there are also people who might try to grab that upgrade while they can, knowing it might not be available later. So I'm not so sure the Aug/Sep Bids (With Nov/Dec training) will be all that much off the 'pace' we seem to be currently on. Predicting this stuff is like trying to nail down jello though, especially right now while both pilot bidding behavior and company bid structure is all settling into a new norm.

Tropical

Do you guys really think this is a new norm? I bet they try monthly AEs for a few months, then abandon it because reasons and go back to quarterly AEs. Mostly because doing it this way is a lot more labor intensive for all of those involved. Flight ops seems to bounce around a lot when it comes to how they manage the airline.

As for FOMO, CA awards seemed to go a lot more junior than I expected and not just in NYC. I almost wish I'd thrown an A bid in. I definitely think a lot of older Bs who have been through the wringer in this industry are weighing Age 67 likely to pass and saying "here we go again, grab a seat before the music stops".

tennisguru

Except they really can't. Not now since the standard bid only has a 150 day conversion window. That really cuts down their flexibility, both in the overall amount of time they have to convert everyone (obviously), but also in how much they can massage the training pipeline within that narrower window to get the results they want. Quarterly 210 day bids gave the company a total of 840 days of training. Quarterly 150 day bids only gets them 600. At a minimum they need to run a 150 day bid every 2 months to basically get the same training window as a 210 day every 3 months. If they throw in a 330 day bid, that will probably break up the monthly bid timeline some, but overall I think the smaller, more frequent bids that they have been talking about for so long are now finally forced upon them due to the shorter conversion window.

Tropical

That's some legit math and you may be right. I also wonder if they're doing smaller bids for a few months to lay up to the green and see how 67 shakes out. It's likely things will slow down when it passes, but not stop completely.

FlexManFlex

Whats the timeline for 67? Will it be passed this year? I don’t keep up with it very well

Go Cards go

It’s part of the FAA reauthorization bill. They need to pass something before the old one expires Sep 30th whether it includes 67 or not.

higney85

If this monthly AE thing is going to keep up the next one should be in a week or two by napkin math for NH slots. Or am I missing something?

FangsF15

You are not missing anything. The July AE announcement said there would be an AE in August and another in September. Will be interesting to see if the August AE gives any updated forward guidance.

I think if we see a suddenly larger AE than the last couple, that may be an indication that they intend to start stringing out the timing. Some point soon, the 200/month hiring pace will slow down, so that may naturally balance that out too. 🤷‍♂️

FlexManFlex

Yep! August 14th should be the next one (mid month) and then mid September after that. I’d expect to see more WBB openings over the next few AEs to start staffing for the Airbus widebodies coming next year. And there are a lot of them!

higney85

lovely. My bid is unchanged, yet designed for a change. Likely A350B… but need a bid to hit at a 9X seniority number. Love the little bus, but lll be back soon in the other seat on the small bus.