crewdawg

Yes, just not to the extent this one drug some things out. They also generally didn't single out any one category, a la 717/220 pay banding/trip mix, which really was some BS. It is what it is.

Meme In Command

I'm in the exact scenario you described at the end of your posts and I made the jump to the left seat. My reasoning: I think 67 has a decent chance of passing which has the potential to slow things down (how much, hard to tell with this hiring) and the delayed implementation items taking effect soon could make being a junior NB A hurt less and could incentivize senior B's to finally jump over.

But to your credit, I know plenty of my classmates and friends that are happy staying put.

myrkridia

Those of us who were extremely lucky to have been hired at the beginning of the post COVID wave are weighing this exact scenario. I've never been senior before and suddenly been able to enjoy learning schedule manipulation, ability to bid holidays off and the like. Plus being on a NBB I know that even if the seniority goes to a slow trickle, it's better than watching the bulk of pilots entering your category via AE be senior to you. WBB is tempting, not for the money but because it may tip the QOL scale to further enjoying my time away rather than my QOL hinging completely on days off.

I'm thinking (based on nothing more than a guess) there will be enough of a distribution of pilots that wish to stay senior on NBB or take the junior NBA that WBB will more or less match the seat lock schedule for post COVID hires.

FangsF15

It will be interesting to watch. I’d be happy to be proven wrong (but also hope CJO holders don’t make regrettable decisions based on unrealistic expectations).

Regardless of how it works out, it is a phenomenal time to be here. Lots of options and opportunities genuinely unthinkable 10 years ago. To anyone who makes a jump (NB A or WB B), don’t ever let anyone talk you down out of their own jealousy. You exercised your seniority, with a bit of lucky timing thrown in. You still earned the right to bid how you did.

myrkridia

Oh 100%. I was not trying to predict out more than a few months into the future. What happens a year from now is anyone's guess. Fleet growth (or lack thereof), hiring numbers, possibility of 67 and implantation are all big factors that make predictions for current new hires a waste of time.

tripled

haha I think that last factor only applies to a minority of our younger pilots on the SL.

jk I assume u meant to type ‘implementation,’ darn autocorrect…..

and yes, 6 months and (potentially) 6 more AE’s from now we might have a very different distribution on the SL. A safe newhire assumption will be to commute to NYC for the best seniority or plan to spend some extra time at the bottom 10% in his domicile of choice. LA becomes the wild card domicile in this scenario.

FangsF15

Agreed.……10 Char

myrkridia

I'll leave it there for public shaming. Though in the autocorrect's defense, brain implants could absolutely have an effect on bidding behavior!

Fatty 5416

I just did 4 pacific crossings on a 9 day. 3 of the FO’s were jumping to NB A. The one who was staying was sub 2000 living his best life. The new contract pay rates and September contract implementations are swaying some folks over. I’m going as well ~7000~ ish seniority. For the peanut gallery consumption.

FlexManFlex

Makes sense. The last AE had 0 A350B openings and only 10 A330B openings (for the SEA base). Yet there were 15 350B awards and 41 330B awards. We also hit double digits for the first time since the January AE. This is with basically NO openings posted.

The WBB hype is great and I believe a lot people are holding out, however, I’m starting to see a trend. For the 12,000-14,000 numbers it could be a couple years before seeing a WB so in the meantime why not upgrade and make bank? I’m also not seeing the CA->FO move like I thought would happen.

Time will tell but if these September trips improve even a little bit I could see some FOMO upgrades start to happen. This would create some senior seat locks and open up the doors for junior NYC330B again, especially with future deliveries.

My guess is August/September AEs will trend more junior regardless because of the holidays (and by holidays I mean football season). I predict a lot of folks are going to stay put for the time being!