You base this on what, exactly?

well that would fall somewhere between certainly and probably

hahahahaha I’m on a post redeye say sleep deadhead. Looking back at that makes me laugh.

**** it I’m not fixing it. 😂

Perhaps you don’t know what TIC is?? Simmer down Francis.

Question about projected training months. Have a bid in, the mock results say I'll get the award and has projected training for October, while most of the other awards for that category are in September. I did the 'convert after junior' to try and delay it - I have plans the last week of Sept I'd like to make. Question is - how accurate are the projected training months? If it says October, is that likely to stick or is it anyone's guess?

Plan 60%. Hold a APD or IVD option as a backup.

I bid to work the 4th… spent the whole week prior on a lake so it was on purpose, but did NOT get my first few choices. Turkey day and Christmas will still need seniority to be off. Maybe I’ll be wrong on that but I’ll put the first round on those dates mattering to many if wrong. Some may want to work it for the pay and a release that works, but DO NOT take a 4th of July on a Tuesday as a barometer of seniority. Personally, I’m not working thanksgiving, Xmas, or Easter by choice. Now-; Super Bowl, New Year’s Eve, New Year’s Day…. I have young kids who have no ability to stay up for that and I’ll gladly work it for extra pay, and bid trips that work accordingly. Football isn’t our jam and it’s already past my bedtime now. Somehow kids can go to bed whenever and still wake with the sun… for an extra 5:15 a day, I think it’ll take some seniority to hold a trip over those days that don’t have an impact on the family. The holiday pay list in a bit interesting in that Easter and Labor Day don’t get a nod.

60 percent? Top 50 percent of lineholders is the contractual answer which is about 40 percent. 45 percent is probably more accurate. Might be a little more junior now due to holiday pay.

If age 67 is enacted it will not really slow any movement noticeably with one exception. Probably close to zero impact on 220 or 717 A. Larger, but still small impact on NB A. You will start to see more slowdown in the ER A category but the guys who will really notice it are those knocking on WB A. The 1998 to 2001 hires waiting to see a True WB A could see a significant delay as plenty in this category are normally retired via age 65.

FOs shouldn't see much slowdown at all - perhaps the top 10% of WB B guys might slowdown a tad but shouldn't be too bad. As a early 2000 hire I still remain agnostic on age 67 but think it will probably happen.

Scoop

As an academic discussion, it would be worth defining “slow down”. I’d argue just about everyone slows down in their march toward their seniority zenith. And of course if one is already at or near their zenith (let’s call them the cash-grabbers if they are the advocates), they will get a pause of up to two years in that prime spot.

People keep trying to console themselves with current movement, and I’d suggest that’s a dangerous distraction. The real and most destructive effect of 67 is to drag the promised land (which is different for everyone) two years to the right. Only if you’re already there is that a good thing.

Say you’ve been projecting yourself to be in the top 6-9% of seniority in your last two years with the company, and you like the prospects of where that puts you in your desired category… You can still have that, but you’ll wait two extra years to achieve it. That fact will never change no matter how much hiring we’re doing now, and no matter how much you do or don’t feel the effects of age 67 right now. And if you’re not going to “participate” in age 67 because you’ve planned and/or budgeted to walk at 65, your last two years will instead be perhaps 9-12% with corresponding hits to seniority and earnings potential. That could also affect your budgeting, of course. Perhaps you were going to be happy walking away at 60 because you’ll have TRICARE and your final two years were possibly going to be as a WBA plug or top-5 in some WBB seat? Now you’ll never touch WBA and you might instead sit 30 seats lower at WBB.

Don’t take your eyes off the ball because the sting is delayed, folks. Age 67 (and beyond) is crushing to the future you. Don’t give in while there’s still a fight to be fought.

Exactly…..