Agreed. I believe someone here mentioned that historical norm for junior NBA was 80% list seniority, so any A awards around 13,000 wouldn't seem that out of whack. 80% now is around 12,700.

What happens when a large majority of the seat locks end???

They bid to other aircraft…scheduling may or may not backfill…remaining slots are offered to new hires.

Will we see it exodus to the WB life?

Doubtful. I bet a decent % of 2021 seatlocks have upgraded. Some will stay senior NB FO’s. Decent bit will go WB. It’s going to be spread out, not everyone wants to be a super junior WB B

Why are people still talking about this “seat lock” boogey man(person).

UNAs didn’t have a seat lock coming back. Many bid an airplane they wanted quickly; they won’t have a seat lock. Many bid captain; they may have a slightly bigger seat lock but they’re in the left seat and not likely moving. Others didn’t have a seat lock and bid WBB; also likely not going anywhere.

Some of the new hires from the last two years have various flavors of seat locks, but no significant “wave”.

What about all the other thousands of movements that have occurred over the last three years?

The “seat locks expiring next AE” is starting to sound like the recession that’s 6 months away and the free beer tomorrow.

UNA’s came back from UNA status on the March 2021 Bid. While they were not seat locked (actually a category freeze for those new here), many did not return to a seat they actually wanted because the company deliberately & severely limited the options.

A month later in Apr 2021, many of the former UNA pilots then bid in a much wider/larger bid, and thus incurred a 2 year seat lock, which has now expired. The next available bid for these pilots was the June 2023 bid.

While it is true a first Captain bid can break a seat lock, that is NOT true for WB B. And if they DID break that post-UNA seat lock to Captain, they are still locked and still unable to bid WB B if they regret the Captain upgrade (probably not that many, but still some). So many many hundreds of former UNA pilots are only now able to bid to WB B.

In addition, the first of the post-Covid New Hires are still locked to their NH seats. Each month will see a couple hundred newly eligible bidders for years to come.

This phenomenon is real, it’s not a bogey man. While it’s not the entire explanation for the oddball bid awards of the last 2 years, it’s a major, major part.

Yeah we all got to come back to that amazing fake March bid of NYC73N, 320, 220. LOL.

Dont forget ATL 717

But I don’t understand the consternation, I bid for a fleet that I wanted and later bid the base. I feel most of the UNAs did the same, thus no lock (freeze).