Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
07-11-2023, 08:39 AM
#3601
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Joined APC: Dec 2021
Posts: 598
I think the reason the last AE went so senior was the limited amount of positions available and FOMO after 6 months of drought. The days of newhires getting WB B are probably over, because that was a combination of large bids and senior pilots on seat lock that couldn't bid the positions, plus junior NB As are going to keep bidding WB B. I think NB A will go more junior than the previous AE trending forward with ATL ER A (757 shuttle) leading the way, along with NYC 737A and DTW 717A. SLC 320A going so junior was surprising. However, outside of those positions, I see NB A going more senior than it has in the last couple years, returning to more typical numbers around 10,000.
07-11-2023, 08:44 AM
#3602
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Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 2,362
I think the reason the last AE went so senior was the limited amount of positions available and FOMO after 6 months of drought. The days of newhires getting WB B are probably over, because that was a combination of large bids and senior pilots on seat lock that couldn't bid the positions, plus junior NB As are going to keep bidding WB B. I think NB A will go more junior than the previous AE trending forward with ATL ER A (757 shuttle) leading the way, along with NYC 737A and DTW 717A. SLC 320A going so junior was surprising. However, outside of those positions, I see NB A going more senior than it has in the last couple years, returning to more typical numbers around 10,000.
I agree with the posts a while back saying % is a better metric than years or #. 10000 now is 62%, pre COVID it was 70% or so.
For all the talk of junior NB A going WB B, how much of that happened last AE? Not much after my cursory glance.
07-11-2023, 08:48 AM
#3604
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,899
If the AEs really do become monthly, with the 150 day conversion window, it will allow people to sharpshoot, to some degree, when they go to training.
07-11-2023, 09:11 AM
#3605
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Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 73N
Posts: 862
Originally Posted by NuGuy;[url=tel:3664138
3664138[/url]]If the AEs really do become monthly, with the 150 day conversion window, it will allow people to sharpshoot, to some degree, when they go to training.
Predicting how these bids will play out is a lot like making stock picks. Lots of info out there but not much chance of nailing a prediction.
That said, the smaller bid’s definitely favor the more senior pilots who want to know exactly what they are signing up for.
07-11-2023, 09:36 AM
#3606
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,899
This is a huge improvement for the majority of pilots who want to have some control over their coming year.
Predicting how these bids will play out is a lot like making stock picks. Lots of info out there but not much chance of nailing a prediction.
That said, the smaller bid’s definitely favor the more senior pilots who want to know exactly what they are signing up for.
Predicting how these bids will play out is a lot like making stock picks. Lots of info out there but not much chance of nailing a prediction.
That said, the smaller bid’s definitely favor the more senior pilots who want to know exactly what they are signing up for.
The only things I would say is make the posting/closing dates consistent each month, and post a list of people bidding each category, and what preference it is for them, and we're there.
07-11-2023, 11:11 AM
#3607
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Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
I think the reason the last AE went so senior was the limited amount of positions available and FOMO after 6 months of drought. The days of newhires getting WB B are probably over, because that was a combination of large bids and senior pilots on seat lock that couldn't bid the positions, plus junior NB As are going to keep bidding WB B. I think NB A will go more junior than the previous AE trending forward with ATL ER A (757 shuttle) leading the way, along with NYC 737A and DTW 717A. SLC 320A going so junior was surprising. However, outside of those positions, I see NB A going more senior than it has in the last couple years, returning to more typical numbers around 10,000.
As long as NYC has WB growth it’s not going to go senior and will have opportunity for bids to trickle really junior and even go down to new hires. With the numbers of deliveries down the road I think it would be crazy to assume the days of WB going to a new hire are long gone.
07-11-2023, 11:22 AM
#3608
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Joined APC: Feb 2022
Posts: 633
The NB A going to WB B is not really even substantial enough worth talking about. More NB A’s downgraded in subsequent bids that had new hires on WB’s. So that logic is flawed. Sure 2-3 per base. But it’s not really making a big difference unless all WB B’s stayed put. Which they don’t and some will even upgrade.
As long as NYC has WB growth it’s not going to go senior and will have opportunity for bids to trickle really junior and even go down to new hires. With the numbers of deliveries down the road I think it would be crazy to assume the days of WB going to a new hire are long gone.
As long as NYC has WB growth it’s not going to go senior and will have opportunity for bids to trickle really junior and even go down to new hires. With the numbers of deliveries down the road I think it would be crazy to assume the days of WB going to a new hire are long gone.
07-11-2023, 11:52 AM
#3609
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Joined APC: Aug 2012
Posts: 612
I agree completely. People talk a big game but when it comes to actually bidding to NYC a lot of people back out the day before the AE closes. When you have days like yesterday and the day before where every single flight to the three NY airports are canceled, it’ll freak you out a little!
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