myrkridia

When you ran those numbers did you account for positions meant for new hires and hiring context?

FlexManFlex

Thats good to know, thanks! Follow up question, how did the WBB and NBA ever get to anything close to 10,000 seniority then if the normal was like this last AE where everything went so senior? I’m assuming there were more variants involved with this last AE that were not exactly normal?

FangsF15

I think the last bid actually was pretty 'normal'. A pre-covid, non-MOAB normal. Covid was a massive boulder thrown in the pool, with waves and oddities which just can’t be sustained. VEOP, UNA seat locks, massive uncertainty, etc are things which will settle out now. These are all educated guesses, based on prior history and a little common sense. IF they really do transition to a “monthly” AE process (Even then, there will bill be skipped months, variations, a MOAB, etc), mathematically they must be "small" AE’s.

In the 2 years pre Covid, it's true we weren’t hiring at the current rate, but we were also retiring more. It’s not a straight bright line I’m drawing here, not a guarantee. There are always surprises. But it seems quite apparent to me, and many others as well, that things will have to start moving toward historical norms. I'm also not saying you can look at a seniority number from 2018/19, and 'crystal ball' the now. For one, we have a much larger seniority list. And for two, we are adding/replacing WB hulls which will require a higher headcount in the WB categories.

Which is a valid counter-point. As we take the 12 330/350 airframes this year, more in the future, and replace the 767-300's, we will need to add more WB A's, which always drives lots of movement. And we will add even more WB B's, which may moderate the return to 'historical norms' somewhat. But not enough to allow NH WB B's, IMO.

It had been 6 months since the prior AE with a lot of pent-up demand. But still, in this last bid, the vast majority of the awards were senior. Like really senior. I’m at 75% NB A, and I couldn’t even have “held” my current seat on this AE. And then in a few categories, there was a sprinkling of a few awards that went down low. But only a few. As a general rule, the larger the bid, the more junior things go, and the smaller the bid, the more senior things go. Generally…

Also, overall % is a better guide than the seniority number for these things. If you look at the WB A category lists, they are all pretty linear down to the plug. And it's been stable at around 2500-3000 to hold WB A since the merger. WB B has a less linear progression (more of a bell curve), especially at the bottom in some categories, so I don't think you can just look at the seniority number of the actual plug, you almost have to look at the bottom 10% (or more) of the category to get a feel for how 'stable' the list is. If you see a pretty consistent progression, it's likely to stay that way. Especially when it comes to NB A (which I submit will generally be junior to WB B), one award on a single AE does not a trend make - unless there are many awards at that level, it's an outlier. And that will happen from time to time.

Personally, I’d be happy to be wrong, and have things go really junior to keep pushing people in below all of us. But remember, in order for WB B or NB A to go really junior, there have to be vacancies where many thousands of eligible senior bidders said, “no thanks”. Also, if anyone sees holes in logic here, or things I'm missing, please chime in and refine this theory. That's what this place is for. Debate, and Iron sharpening Iron. Again, this is all opinion, but a reasoned one I think. I just don’t want anyone getting their hopes up needlessly, and especially prospective NH’s counting on it financially (my “joke” has been about spousal promises - but it's true).

All that said, ALWAYS have a bid in if you are willing to do it (BWYWWWYB). There are ALWAYS more bids awarded than posted, due to backfills. ALWAYS. So, shoot for the moon, because you might just get it. Just don’t put yourself in a position to get burned if it doesn't happen.

FlexManFlex

Thank you, FangsF15!

Perfectly said! Thank you for all of this. Great info and it’s much appreciated!

tcco94

before Covid the 330 positions in SEA, MSP, DTW were all 11k and above. I think people perception of what is “normal” from 2019 is way off the scales to reality. Obviously certain oddities happened from the post Covid bidding but also we are now moving into 4-500+ retirements for almost the next decade. People bringing up bidding patterns from 2015-2016 are just not very accurate anymore and despite what people seem to think, the widebodies were not THAT much more senior than they are today.

it’s actually more senior today to hold SEA/MSP 330 than it was pre-Covid. Granted the ER was larger around the bases (which you would have been at least 60% area as well) but you could have held both of them as a low to mid 11,000. So don’t believe everyone around here when they claim the last bid pattern was “normal”. Some perception is you need a 6-8000 number to hold a widebody B, which is just not true. Unless you wanted the 777

tcco94

Something worth noting to my post above is also the date of hire to seniority number is obviously skewed because of the VEOP. Me for example am at 3.5 years and a low 11k number. That number pre Covid was 5+ years. So those of us hired right before Covid 10-11,000 #’s and even the 12-13,000’s have jumped seniority by at least 2-3 years on the overall list.

so if you compare how long it was to hold a WB seat then true, it’s earlier today. But if I was bidding off my number in 2019, which would actually be less senior than I am today on the overall total list, I would hold a west coast widebody. Today I am about 1000ish away from a west coast or MSP widebody.

In length of time that could be displayed as normal, but seniority numbers not so much.

For added context too the company has stated pacific recovery is only 60%, so that also plays a huge factor in why some of the bases widebodies are still holding senior. If they threw a bid down with 20+ positions, the numbers would move more in the realm of DTW seniority and thus back to the levels of 11’s holding mostly any widebody base you want (minus LAX350 for the time being but that will have explosive growth too - and LAX777 was the most senior WB B base on property pre Covid anyways)

So all in all it’s not a complete 1 for 1 comparison.

hockeypilot44

The list also exploded in size. We went from about 12,400 pilots at merger down to almost 10,000 pilots, then back up to 16,000 pilots. Did this by hiring 2,400 in one year. That lead to 6 month upgrades. The list will eventually stop growing and eventually shrink. I would bet we see furloughs in 10-15 years when the retirements slow down. We have been extremely fortunate to not have involuntary furloughs in over 15 years.

hockeypilot44

The list also exploded in size. We went from about 12,400 pilots at merger down to almost 10,000 pilots, then back up to 16,000 pilots. Did this by hiring 2,400 in one year. That lead to 6 month upgrades. The list will eventually stop growing and eventually shrink. I would bet we see furloughs in 10-15 years when the retirements slow down. We have been extremely fortunate to not have involuntary furloughs in over 15 years.

You need to be about 25 percent on overall list (4000 number) to hold 50 percent narrowbody captain anywhere but New York.


That’s a lot of years to be junior. Some with young kids will miss everything. Will be numerous divorces. It’s almost golden handcuffs.

Gone Flying

Maybe the case in ATL, but the rest of the system isn’t quite so senior.

mid seniority DTW 73n/320 is mid 5K, MSP is right around 5k

220 and 73N A in SLC are over 6k.

SEA and LAX 320/73N are 7k numbers

DTW 717 and SEA220 are 8k.

all 3 NYC NB categories are 7-8k range, ATL 73N/320 are 4K, Atl 717 is 6k

PilotBases

One thing that also skews it is focusing on years to hold X rather than seniority # to hold it. Someone hired early 2023 is 15,000. Tomorrows hire is 16,000, it’ll take that person two years of retirements to get the early 2023’s hire seniority. You are 11.x with 3.5 in, so it’ll be what, 8-10 years for tomorrows hire to hold that same #? Hiring 2,400 and retiring 500 skews it a lot.