Gspeed

Zero. They can fly all the fleets at any time; we can only fly one.

Tanker1497

It took me 13.5 years to hold 5 from the plug ATL320A. I was hired in 2007. Last bid ATL320A junior was system seniority 3,900. It appears to be trending back towards normal.

crazyjaydawg

I would gather ~2 years for plug. Movement will be very slowwww until the 6-8 year mark though.

beernutt

Depends on the time frame. At one point it was 15 years.

There is no real normal time but I can assure you the last 3 years have been historically abnormal.

tcco94

We all knew it was coming. You have the highest amount of retirements tied with a 1800ish VEOP. This is likely the new norm for the industry unless age 67 passes. Then pause a couple years and this is still the new norm. The days of 2000-2010 are gone.

beernutt

So 1 year captains indefinitely? What a time to be a newhire!

FangsF15

Not. A. Chance. in. Hades.

Unless you were trying to be sarcastic.

FlexManFlex

I know you know this but I’ll say it anyways… it’ll be 5 years for a new hire today to hold CA and it’ll be 8-10 years to hold widebody FO. Those who are 7,000 - 12,000 currently are consider “golden era” and those 12,000+ will be “hired at a good time but could be better.” Basically 2014-2020 vs 2021 and beyond.

Look, I’m not trying to be negative. It’s 99% what you make of it! Being a NB FO isn’t a bad life at all, especially making $200+ an hour. All I’m saying is the if you are 12,000+ and took the upgrade or WBB when you had the chance, that was an incredible move. If you didn’t take the move (seat lock, etc) then you may have missed out for a bit.

My prediction is 10,000 and senior will get what they bid sometime this year. 10,000-12,000 will require some luck. And 12,000 and beyond can count on staying put for a bit!

StayFrosty

Not gonna lie, as a first year I’m really hoping (and praying) for a quick upgrade in the NB fleet however I realize times be a changing, and shall change with the times as needed. Blessed that I’m here and with 22 (maybe 24) years to go the big guy upstairs will see it where I’m needed.

Can still hope though 🤪. In my very inexperienced opinion, NB A could hold junior-ish as more and more go to WB B where the cushy flying and QOL is. How junior is junior-ish, don’t know but I’m hoping around 1-1.5 years. Good luck everyone ending up where you want. Cheers 🥃

-Stay Frosty

tcco94

Not really what I said but going back to the bids of the mid to late 2010’s as what is “norms” is not accurate was my point.