Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
06-29-2023, 08:50 AM
#3401
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
Well, I didn't say it would be successful. It just has a much higher success chance than a 7ER to 765 bid would. It didn't work out for many and I expect the Company to continue to call bluffs. Smaller, monthly AEs may allow them to react better to people burning their training withdrawal card.
06-29-2023, 08:51 AM
#3402
Roll’n Thunder
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Position: Pilot
Posts: 3,835
I think too that the massive bids of the past drove things more junior. A lot of people don't want to lose control of when they go to training over a 12 month period, so junior people who were willing to take on that uncertainly could jump in the fray. Now that large scale displacements aren't really a factor, there will be no 210 day bids. That leaves the company with only the single 330 day bid per year, and the rest have to be 150. So now going forward it seems like it will be much easier to predict your training window so you'll see a more natural seniority flow to AE awards. Once we get training golden days for all AE's and first/second/third preference for the 330 day bid that will blunt the uncertainty even more.
06-29-2023, 08:52 AM
#3403
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,807
I think too that the massive bids of the past drive things more junior. A lot of people don't want to lose control of when they go to training over a 12 month period, so junior people who were willing to take on that uncertainly could jump in the fray. Now that large scale displacements aren't really a factor, there will be no 210 day bids. That leaves the company with only the single 330 day bid per year, and the rest have to be 150. So now going forward it seems like it will be much easier to predict your training window so you'll see a more natural seniority flow to AE awards. Once we get training golden days for all AE's and first/second/third preference for the 330 day bid that will blunt the uncertainty even more.
06-29-2023, 09:44 AM
#3404
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2009
Position: Middle Seat
Posts: 1,228
I think too that the massive bids of the past drove things more junior. A lot of people don't want to lose control of when they go to training over a 12 month period, so junior people who were willing to take on that uncertainly could jump in the fray. Now that large scale displacements aren't really a factor, there will be no 210 day bids. That leaves the company with only the single 330 day bid per year, and the rest have to be 150. So now going forward it seems like it will be much easier to predict your training window so you'll see a more natural seniority flow to AE awards. Once we get training golden days for all AE's and first/second/third preference for the 330 day bid that will blunt the uncertainty even more.
There are a ton of NB deliveries over the next 6-8 years too. If the domestic
06-29-2023, 11:03 AM
#3410
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2022
Posts: 633
The Seniority of the awarded positions. I (and others) have been postulating for some time that the seniority to hold WB B (in particular), but also NB A would trend back toward a more historical norm. This bid did exactly that. If you look at the 5 AE's awarded in 2018, they had 565, 365, 260, 1034 (MOAB), and 362 vacancies. The 5 2019 AE's had 245, 1441 (MOAB II), 290, 280, and 498 Vacancies. This 2023 bid had 422.
So yes, this was a "Typical" bid to the 2 years I looked at pre-covid. Or even a bid larger than an average non-MOAB bid. If you were to sting the positions offered in the MOAB to an additional 2-3 bids, that would probably look like what they seem to be evolving to now. It remains to b seen if they will relapse into thier pre-covid MOAB addiction.
I would agree with several others here that the next few AE's will need to happen for us to see if these trends are truly here to stay, but I still suspect it will return to the general ballpark of what we have historically seen to hold WB B and to a lesser extent NB A, while acknowledging we will be a larger air line than pre-covid, so there will be some variance. I do not see the WB A "wall" coming down anytime soon. My 2 cents anyway.
So yes, this was a "Typical" bid to the 2 years I looked at pre-covid. Or even a bid larger than an average non-MOAB bid. If you were to sting the positions offered in the MOAB to an additional 2-3 bids, that would probably look like what they seem to be evolving to now. It remains to b seen if they will relapse into thier pre-covid MOAB addiction.
I would agree with several others here that the next few AE's will need to happen for us to see if these trends are truly here to stay, but I still suspect it will return to the general ballpark of what we have historically seen to hold WB B and to a lesser extent NB A, while acknowledging we will be a larger air line than pre-covid, so there will be some variance. I do not see the WB A "wall" coming down anytime soon. My 2 cents anyway.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
