Meme In Command

Is the return to historical norms the seniority of those awarded the positions, or the overall size of the AE? Was this a "typical" AE pre-covid?

interceptorpilo

AEs were generally larger pre COVID and there was not a six month wait between. Also I believe this bid went more senior for WB B and NB A than typical pre COVID but the seniority is closer than it has been over the last couple years.

FangsF15

The Seniority of the awarded positions. I (and others) have been postulating for some time that the seniority to hold WB B (in particular), but also NB A would trend back toward a more historical norm. This bid did exactly that. If you look at the 5 AE's awarded in 2018, they had 565, 365, 260, 1034 (MOAB), and 362 vacancies. The 5 2019 AE's had 245, 1441 (MOAB II), 290, 280, and 498 Vacancies. This 2023 bid had 422.

So yes, this was a "Typical" bid to the 2 years I looked at pre-covid. Or even a bid larger than an average non-MOAB bid. If you were to sting the positions offered in the MOAB to an additional 2-3 bids, that would probably look like what they seem to be evolving to now. It remains to b seen if they will relapse into thier pre-covid MOAB addiction.

I would agree with several others here that the next few AE's will need to happen for us to see if these trends are truly here to stay, but I still suspect it will return to the general ballpark of what we have historically seen to hold WB B and to a lesser extent NB A, while acknowledging we will be a larger air line than pre-covid, so there will be some variance. I do not see the WB A "wall" coming down anytime soon. My 2 cents anyway.

tcco94

I don’t even understand how you can extrapolate and declare victory on your assumptions of WB B seniority in a small bid that saw little to no openings on said fleets. 1 bid next month could completely derail that if we saw 30-40 openings.

Same with NB A. This bid was so out of norm for us, it’s way too early to really know anything of bidding norms. If we truly went to a model of monthly bidding, we’d need at least 4-6 of these to compare to our normal sized bids.

BlueSkies

Just curious, were you shooting for WBB? There will be lots more chances. Keep that enthusiasm!

iahflyr

I disagree. If Delta goes to bi-monthly bids, they only need to fill 16% of the future seats on a given bid. If it goes to monthly, they only need to fill 8%. The 600 “needed” spots assumed every aircraft is delivered on schedule… that is not the best assumption these days.

DWC CAP10 USAF

Ask 🌹 how that worked out for him

tcco94

True about the deliveries but the year end 10K’s reflect a current delivery environment. Airbus has been delayed, yes, but Delta is aware and reflects that.

FangsF15

Except it was not out of the norm. Look at the available data. The WB B openings in the same 10 pre-covid AE's were as follows: 15, 30, -16, 45 (MOAB), -25 (net), zero, 132 (MOAB II), zero, zero, and 6. That's an average of 18.7 vacancies per bid over 10 bids and the last 2 years before Covid. This AE had 14. Not much different...

Despite this, I acknowedged this was one data point and more AE's would be needed to see if this is permanent or not. I even used italics and underline to emphasize toward, seem, and ballpark

Yes, there are more deliveries to come. That will probably naturally drive things a little more junior than historical (thus the emphasis on toward) once they actually start showing up in numbers. The retirements are not particularly compelling as those have been a similar factor then and now. Despite that, I just don't think WB B will float down to NH's again. I just don't. Covid was a wacky time with some wild swings, WB category closures, VEOP and its necessary rebuilding, seat locks, etc. I could absolutely be wrong, and have been wrong before. This is my opinion and my reasoning why I think things will settle down with much less variance from bid to bid, at least until there is another large elephant which jumps in the pool.

Prognostications and expectations need to be realistic and backed up by analysis, not hope. And for the record, one bid with one lucky bidder does not a trend make. That goes for this bid, as well as future bids.

Jaww

Couldn’t have happened to a better guy, or wife, or both?