Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
#3142
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Does DL do snapshots, or practice awards prior to the actual close?
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#3143
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Nope. You can look at how many senior to you are bidding something. But it's mostly worthless because you don't know their qualifiers, like they'll only take the bid if they'll be 50% in seat. Also, it wouldn't be that accurate because the company doesn't have to fill every spot. So the spend lots of time deciding how many spots to award and/or backfill (or not).
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#3144
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I'm not sure the relevant question is whether they stay or don't stay. I would think the more important metric would be, "What is the perceived impact".
Last time compared to this time......
You are talking 2 years not 5.
You are talking massive retirements vice paltry retirements
You are talking current massive hiring compared to virtually none before due to economic malaise.
You are talking great wages compared to 46% pay cuts.(pro and/or con...cuts both ways)
To me, the concer may be the same(stagnation) but it won't play out like last time. It would be more of a slowing of hiring and progression.... might not be the current "Full speed ahead", or "Flank speed ahead".... but more like " Half ahead, both engines"
Last time compared to this time......
You are talking 2 years not 5.
You are talking massive retirements vice paltry retirements
You are talking current massive hiring compared to virtually none before due to economic malaise.
You are talking great wages compared to 46% pay cuts.(pro and/or con...cuts both ways)
To me, the concer may be the same(stagnation) but it won't play out like last time. It would be more of a slowing of hiring and progression.... might not be the current "Full speed ahead", or "Flank speed ahead".... but more like " Half ahead, both engines"
It would be pretty cool for college educated peers to acknowledge “yeah, this is mostly just a good deal for a very small percent of US airline pilots, but admittedly a screw job for the rest of you”. Or maybe “I’m bummed about how much longer my airline pilot kids will have to work to achieve top seniority, but I’ll be long gone when they do and I guess since we’re all living longer we should all work longer too”.
Like most human beings I do what’s best for me and my family. I also have enough academic integrity to see and acknowledge when whatever that thing is might uniquely benefit me at others’ expense.
Do you really think this will “play out differently” than last time? Do you see a bunch of top-50% seniority WB captains here in their late fifties? Have reason to think one won’t need to get north of 63 or 64 or 65 to do that under a different age paradigm? This isn’t a stagnation concern, it’s dreading the race to the bottom of just how long one has to stay at the grindstone to achieve their career zenith.
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#3145
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My concern is not slower movement for the next X months or years while hiring is still running strong. It’s the cumulative reduction of seniority at which I’ll top out. That’s true for everyone - whether you wanted to leave at 65 when Medicare became available, 60 when your tricare kicked in, 57 when your early reserve mil retirement started paying or 53 when your sugar daddy turned 75.
It would be pretty cool for college educated peers to acknowledge “yeah, this is mostly just a good deal for a very small percent of US airline pilots, but admittedly a screw job for the rest of you”. Or maybe “I’m bummed about how much longer my airline pilot kids will have to work to achieve top seniority, but I’ll be long gone when they do and I guess since we’re all living longer we should all work longer too”.
Like most human beings I do what’s best for me and my family. I also have enough academic integrity to see and acknowledge when whatever that thing is might uniquely benefit me at others’ expense.
Do you really think this will “play out differently” than last time? Do you see a bunch of top-50% seniority WB captains here in their late fifties? Have reason to think one won’t need to get north of 63 or 64 or 65 to do that under a different age paradigm? This isn’t a stagnation concern, it’s dreading the race to the bottom of just how long one has to stay at the grindstone to achieve their career zenith.
It would be pretty cool for college educated peers to acknowledge “yeah, this is mostly just a good deal for a very small percent of US airline pilots, but admittedly a screw job for the rest of you”. Or maybe “I’m bummed about how much longer my airline pilot kids will have to work to achieve top seniority, but I’ll be long gone when they do and I guess since we’re all living longer we should all work longer too”.
Like most human beings I do what’s best for me and my family. I also have enough academic integrity to see and acknowledge when whatever that thing is might uniquely benefit me at others’ expense.
Do you really think this will “play out differently” than last time? Do you see a bunch of top-50% seniority WB captains here in their late fifties? Have reason to think one won’t need to get north of 63 or 64 or 65 to do that under a different age paradigm? This isn’t a stagnation concern, it’s dreading the race to the bottom of just how long one has to stay at the grindstone to achieve their career zenith.
The selfish pilots pushing this because they want to get more, despite them having their positions because someone ahead of them retired on schedule, want to paint this as "only 2 years". But the effect is cumulative. Every WB CA that retires creates a cascade of openings below them. This is going to delay everyone's advancement. Not only that, a lot of us are looking forward to their retirement just so that we don't have to fly with them any more and listen to NewsMax on blast for 3+ days and get treated like student pilots.
And let's not fool ourselves. If they get their justice of 67, they'll be right back at it screaming how 67 is discrimination and 70 is fair. Then wash rinse and repeat again.
Greed knows no bounds.
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#3146
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Bingo.
The selfish pilots pushing this because they want to get more, despite them having their positions because someone ahead of them retired on schedule, want to paint this as "only 2 years". But the effect is cumulative. Every WB CA that retires creates a cascade of openings below them. This is going to delay everyone's advancement.
And let's not fool ourselves. If they get their justice of 67, they'll be right back at it screaming how 67 is discrimination and 70 is fair. Then wash rinse and repeat again.
Greed knows no bounds.
The selfish pilots pushing this because they want to get more, despite them having their positions because someone ahead of them retired on schedule, want to paint this as "only 2 years". But the effect is cumulative. Every WB CA that retires creates a cascade of openings below them. This is going to delay everyone's advancement.
And let's not fool ourselves. If they get their justice of 67, they'll be right back at it screaming how 67 is discrimination and 70 is fair. Then wash rinse and repeat again.
Greed knows no bounds.
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#3147
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I also doubt many pilots below 40, in my age group, plan to work to 60 much less 67. We have been investing aggressively and value work life balance, unlike the older group.
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#3148
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Every time you move up a percentage point, someone got out of your way too....
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#3149
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This is the generation still whining about the generation before them losing a pension 20+ years ago (the true "deadzoners"). Who whined just as loud when 65 passed 15 years ago. Who benefited from age 60 retirements for their entire career until 2007.
But now that they're in the chair, the only fair thing is fly til you die. Pull up the ladder.
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#3150
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Met a captain on my deadhead the other day who was retiring in a couple months at 56. The guy was super healthy, flew domestic his entire career, happy as could be. I invest aggressively so that hopefully I can one day be like this. The thought of working until 67 makes me shudder!! (But if others want to, then go for it)
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