Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
06-12-2023, 04:37 AM
#2681
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2022
Posts: 633
I am still betting WBB in NYC is unbid. With the A positions on WB’s and new A rates there is going to be some serious interest for the left seat. And no one is going to push and trip over one another to fly out of NYC suddenly. The retirement numbers on WBA are starting to ramp up as well so even some of that is going to move the WBB needle that wouldn’t otherwise bid NBA
Unless the positions are lower than expected but based on hiring numbers they say they want it seems like it won’t be
Unless the positions are lower than expected but based on hiring numbers they say they want it seems like it won’t be
06-12-2023, 04:38 AM
#2682
Leaves Biscoff crumbs
Joined APC: Jan 2020
Position: Blue Juice Taste Tester
Posts: 1,363
I agree with you. I can see WBB going to down to only about 11,000 in this next AE. Maybe NYC330B hits 12,000 but I doubt even that. NBA will go down to 15,000 at least. WBA will stay roughly the same until we get into the 2025 timeframe with another 10 airframes on the 330/350.
765 will be the first to hit 5,000 CAs and that’ll happen end of next year as the current 765 CAs jump ship to the 330 (kind of a stretch I know). We’re gonna be at 17,000 pilots by next summer and NBAs will continue to drop down to 16,000 ish while WBB maybe hits 13,000, only because the 330 and 350 will be growing.
I don’t see any current WBB jumping ship to NBA. It’ll be interesting to see what the next couple of years offer! We have to be careful about how the economic fears affect us too but so far it doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
765 will be the first to hit 5,000 CAs and that’ll happen end of next year as the current 765 CAs jump ship to the 330 (kind of a stretch I know). We’re gonna be at 17,000 pilots by next summer and NBAs will continue to drop down to 16,000 ish while WBB maybe hits 13,000, only because the 330 and 350 will be growing.
I don’t see any current WBB jumping ship to NBA. It’ll be interesting to see what the next couple of years offer! We have to be careful about how the economic fears affect us too but so far it doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
06-12-2023, 04:49 AM
#2683
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,594
I think 765A will remain pretty senior. It's a small category, and it's going to take all the senior ER refugees that don't wanna go Airbus or spend a month in the training center. As the 320 takes more and more ER flying, if the pairing quality continues to deteriorate, I predict more ER guys will just take the easy transition over to the 400.
I see DTW 350A as the weak point for the WB A wall. I think it falls there. Dark horse weakness would be NYC330A
06-12-2023, 04:55 AM
#2684
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
So what you’re saying is WBA will create movement for WBB. That’s a good point. My question becomes how many WBB will lower their seniority for WBA? I guess the rope 25% WBBs would be pretty senior even in the left seat so that could work well for them and thus create a lot of backfill openings.
06-12-2023, 05:01 AM
#2685
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Joined APC: Apr 2016
Position: Looking left
Posts: 3,378
That's a pretty simpleton explanation. We had a handful of the 777-200LR's. There were only 60 ever built because it was a heavy expensive jet to fly that was designed to fly the ultra ultra long haul. No other US carrier ever purchasThere were only two to three routes it was needed for...way too much jet for most of what it was flown on. We needed a long haul fleet of size and the 350 was the choice over the 787. So now we will go from a fleet of 17ish 777's to 65 A-350's with the eventual A-350-1000 order. It was a long term strategic decision that they played a few years early because of covid. The 777 was a fleet that was never going to grow since the 777X is so delayed and too big of a jet most likely.
One of the ER's is now the Arizona Cardinals team plane.
Five of the LR's are now with Air India
06-12-2023, 05:05 AM
#2686
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2016
Position: Looking left
Posts: 3,378
Ain't going to happen....765A and 330A pay the same...I don't see the lifelong Boeing guys going down to VA just to learn French just to make the say hourly pay rate.
06-12-2023, 05:05 AM
#2687
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Joined APC: Jan 2023
Posts: 114
I see NYC 765B and NYC330B trending junior again. Lots of senior NYC 7ER B folks aren’t switching over to the 765 despite the large pay raise. In my anecdotal evidence, every person that’s senior to me that I’ve spoken to, say they like the variety on the ER and won’t make the switch despite the ~40K pay increase and slight drop in seniority.
06-12-2023, 05:14 AM
#2688
Leaves Biscoff crumbs
Joined APC: Jan 2020
Position: Blue Juice Taste Tester
Posts: 1,363
For this reason, not only do I expect 765A to remain senior, I'd even expect some early retirements from senior 60+ pilots on both seats when the ER's go away.
06-12-2023, 05:16 AM
#2689
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2021
Posts: 598
If they delay it again or make it too small to be meaningful (which basically delays it to fall for all practical purposes), there's going to be a mutiny.
I don't think the company wants a massive loss of enthusiasm, in the middle of the busy summer schedule, when everyone is already pushed to the breaking point.
06-12-2023, 05:18 AM
#2690
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 2,376
765 is a bunch of LHR, CDG, GRU, LAX, and NCE if you’re on the first two pages of the wide. Variety is slim.
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