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Old 05-02-2023, 10:07 AM
  #2231  
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Originally Posted by hockeypilot44
I personally think the movement is about to stop and our airline is going to start shrinking. I think all the airlines are going to start shrinking due to lack of pilot candidates.
I think we have an other year or two before that is the case.
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Old 05-02-2023, 10:10 AM
  #2232  
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Originally Posted by Scooter432
I think we have an other year or two before that is the case.
sounds like a fun game of who can burn the hottest until the wheels fall off …
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Old 05-02-2023, 10:25 AM
  #2233  
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Originally Posted by Hossharris
sounds like a fun game of who can burn the hottest until the wheels fall off …
unfortunately, you are correct. Glad I have vacation over the summer ha.
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Old 05-02-2023, 11:00 AM
  #2234  
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Originally Posted by hockeypilot44
I personally think the movement is about to stop and our airline is going to start shrinking. I think all the airlines are going to start shrinking due to lack of pilot candidates.
Do you honestly think that we won’t be able to hire enough to keep pace with retirements (~500/yr)?

I would agree that we won’t be able to keep hiring 2,000+ indefinitely, but flight schools are pumping out enough to keep filling the 1,500 hr pool with applicants to hold steady.

I also think the economy will slow, but we so far behind on manning that it might help us get caught. Honestly even with COVID happening, we stopped hiring and our manning only got worse!

I don’t fully understand all the alarmism that people like to randomly inject into threads. Sure a massive recession has been 6 months away for the last three years, but let’s keep repeating it. I guess a broken clock is right twice a day(lifetime).
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Old 05-02-2023, 11:05 AM
  #2235  
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Originally Posted by crazyjaydawg
Do you honestly think that we won’t be able to hire enough to keep pace with retirements (~500/yr)?

I would agree that we won’t be able to keep hiring 2,000+ indefinitely, but flight schools are pumping out enough to keep filling the 1,500 hr pool with applicants to hold steady.

I also think the economy will slow, but we so far behind on manning that it might help us get caught. Honestly even with COVID happening, we stopped hiring and our manning only got worse!

I don’t fully understand all the alarmism that people like to randomly inject into threads. Sure a massive recession has been 6 months away for the last three years, but let’s keep repeating it. I guess a broken clock is right twice a day(lifetime).
Well, the government keep sending patches to keep the bubble inflated. How many people are being furlough from different industries but “it’s all good!!!!”????

I think hiring will be slowed down next year. Maybe the 757 will start it’s retirement as it’s replaced by the NEO. We will keep the old 319/320 and the 717 to compensate the regionals issues.
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Old 05-02-2023, 11:29 AM
  #2236  
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ATL base meeting today - next AE first half of June.
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Old 05-02-2023, 11:56 AM
  #2237  
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Originally Posted by interceptorpilo
ATL base meeting today - next AE first half of June.
Perfect, thanks! Finally some promising news. I’m glad it’s not getting pushed back any further
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Old 05-02-2023, 12:22 PM
  #2238  
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Originally Posted by hockeypilot44
I personally think the movement is about to stop and our airline is going to start shrinking. I think all the airlines are going to start shrinking due to lack of pilot candidates.
No. Legislators/regulators will just change the requirements to become an airline pilot. Which I also think is coming…
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Old 05-02-2023, 01:41 PM
  #2239  
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Originally Posted by hockeypilot44
I personally think the movement is about to stop and our airline is going to start shrinking. I think all the airlines are going to start shrinking due to lack of pilot candidates.
Hopefully the coming recession doesn't hit us as fast as its hitting CRE and car dealers.
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Old 05-02-2023, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
No. Legislators/regulators will just change the requirements to become an airline pilot. Which I also think is coming…
They can, but that just burns the candle at both ends by canabilizing the instructor pipeline needed to train more pilots.

They need to park large RJ's by the hundreds ASAP and stop plowing any money into the failed university model and go direct to a sensible flight school model.

Obviously they won't of course.
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