Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
04-10-2023, 07:16 AM
#1951
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Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
Unless you are in ATL or NYC, have you seen 330 rotations? They are about as repetitive as 350. Actually some of ATL is worse with South America and Africa double redeye rotations. Was the pay scale really that much different to go fly the 350 over 330 and suck it up on worse destinations? ATL 350 in summer had some different diversity, like Dublin/Amsterdam. With new pacific routes incoming, some could see 350 as better than 330 LHR/AMS/CDG machine it is.
but if someone cared so much about diversity, they would probably still be in NYC ER because that diversity is the best in the airline.
Anyways my point being I think this is going to be a minority group we are talking about. 330 will be senior because it already is the senior widebody. I don’t see some dramatic change from what has been going on even with paybanding.
just my 2c
but if someone cared so much about diversity, they would probably still be in NYC ER because that diversity is the best in the airline.
Anyways my point being I think this is going to be a minority group we are talking about. 330 will be senior because it already is the senior widebody. I don’t see some dramatic change from what has been going on even with paybanding.
just my 2c
04-10-2023, 07:21 AM
#1952
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Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
One AE does not a trend make... Tectonic plates take time to shift.
Over the next year or two, I don't think there will be a huge number of 350-to-330 bidders. But for new WB bidders, Pay Banding combined with the noted Destination Diversity (not to mention trip length diversity and the potential for only 3, or even 2 blocks of X-days), the ease/short length of upgrade our largest NB pilot category, plus leaving the horrible NB bid packets behind will drive seniority higher, especially on the 330. A mid-seniority (5th year) NB FO looking at WBB saw the 330/765 rates go from $203 in C15 to $254 in C19, and in about 7 months (and anther year on the scale) to $273. That's a pretty sizable pay increase, which for many will be enough to entice them to bid for WB B. Future 330 deliveries may well complicate that though, depending on how quickly they fill them. That will be a 'headwind' on this hypothesis.
Current senior WB B's are making $285, only about $50/hr less then NB A. As previously noted, many are making up that small gap with smart bidding and a little premium. I don't think we'll see many senior WB B's leaving anytime soon, unless they are biding WB A, which its $130/hr gain.
Over the next year or two, I don't think there will be a huge number of 350-to-330 bidders. But for new WB bidders, Pay Banding combined with the noted Destination Diversity (not to mention trip length diversity and the potential for only 3, or even 2 blocks of X-days), the ease/short length of upgrade our largest NB pilot category, plus leaving the horrible NB bid packets behind will drive seniority higher, especially on the 330. A mid-seniority (5th year) NB FO looking at WBB saw the 330/765 rates go from $203 in C15 to $254 in C19, and in about 7 months (and anther year on the scale) to $273. That's a pretty sizable pay increase, which for many will be enough to entice them to bid for WB B. Future 330 deliveries may well complicate that though, depending on how quickly they fill them. That will be a 'headwind' on this hypothesis.
Current senior WB B's are making $285, only about $50/hr less then NB A. As previously noted, many are making up that small gap with smart bidding and a little premium. I don't think we'll see many senior WB B's leaving anytime soon, unless they are biding WB A, which its $130/hr gain.
I talk to more NB B’s who are eyeing the left seat then eyeing international. Not that I’m saying that sample size means much, but you’d have to also figure there’s going to be some chasing the $ sign and it not be a WB.
That being said, I still don’t see this wave of seniority making 330 even more senior with the amount of WB A seats retiring then factor in 15 new 330’s by end of next year. That’s a lot of growth, on a fleet already pretty strapped for staffing.
04-10-2023, 07:59 AM
#1953
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Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,896
This is closer to my situation, in my old WB B spot, I'd be sitting at 60-65%, which means many months I'm still getting coverage on weekend reserve/holidays, and not getting much of the vacation I want. Unless I could unload the trip, due to the 6 day trips, I'm also always going to work a weekend. Whereas on the NB A, I'm sitting at 25% in seat, getting first picks at vacation, rarely ever see coverage on reserve and can bid by trip number if I actually bid a line. I spend way more nights at home now and with a little bit of premium, I'm still beating my WB B pay by a fair amount.
I was a "only leaving WB B until WB A" guy until I was displaced. Now I'll only consider going back to WB B if I can be top ~20%. I'd probably have a different viewpoint if I was flying the 320/737 (60%/50% in seat, respectively), as their schedules/trips look terrible).
04-10-2023, 08:15 AM
#1954
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Joined APC: Jan 2023
Posts: 1,566
Executing an AE doesn’t force them to put any extra bodies in training. They can delay any training until after the summer, use a “now” AE to move folks not requiring training between bases that are unbalanced to achieve distribution that more closely aligns with block hour planning, and all they have to do is pay-protect folks who aren’t converted in the perfect order.
The crew resources update honestly created more questions for me than it answers. It talks a lot about why things are AFU, but says nothing to why our network demands haven’t corrected to our AFU staffing. They may be trying to slow the bleeding, but fundamentally we are overextended with zero obvious corrections in our bag of tricks other than hoping a lack of IROPs develop over the summer. I’ve heard ATL won’t have thunderstorms this summer, so we should be good.
The update also seems to support my theory that all our green slip flying over the years (that we were told would “help our staffing model in the future”) really only served to reduce pilot schedule-manipulation flexibility via reduced blue days. Until the company matches block hours to actual crew resources and not a revenue-addicted pipe dream, we and our customers are fooked.
The crew resources update honestly created more questions for me than it answers. It talks a lot about why things are AFU, but says nothing to why our network demands haven’t corrected to our AFU staffing. They may be trying to slow the bleeding, but fundamentally we are overextended with zero obvious corrections in our bag of tricks other than hoping a lack of IROPs develop over the summer. I’ve heard ATL won’t have thunderstorms this summer, so we should be good.
The update also seems to support my theory that all our green slip flying over the years (that we were told would “help our staffing model in the future”) really only served to reduce pilot schedule-manipulation flexibility via reduced blue days. Until the company matches block hours to actual crew resources and not a revenue-addicted pipe dream, we and our customers are fooked.
04-10-2023, 08:46 AM
#1955
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Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 5,040
Executing an AE doesn’t force them to put any extra bodies in training. They can delay any training until after the summer, use a “now” AE to move folks not requiring training between bases that are unbalanced to achieve distribution that more closely aligns with block hour planning, and all they have to do is pay-protect folks who aren’t converted in the perfect order.
The crew resources update honestly created more questions for me than it answers. It talks a lot about why things are AFU, but says nothing to why our network demands haven’t corrected to our AFU staffing. They may be trying to slow the bleeding, but fundamentally we are overextended with zero obvious corrections in our bag of tricks other than hoping a lack of IROPs develop over the summer. I’ve heard ATL won’t have thunderstorms this summer, so we should be good.
The update also seems to support my theory that all our green slip flying over the years (that we were told would “help our staffing model in the future”) really only served to reduce pilot schedule-manipulation flexibility via reduced blue days. Until the company matches block hours to actual crew resources and not a revenue-addicted pipe dream, we and our customers are fooked.
The crew resources update honestly created more questions for me than it answers. It talks a lot about why things are AFU, but says nothing to why our network demands haven’t corrected to our AFU staffing. They may be trying to slow the bleeding, but fundamentally we are overextended with zero obvious corrections in our bag of tricks other than hoping a lack of IROPs develop over the summer. I’ve heard ATL won’t have thunderstorms this summer, so we should be good.
The update also seems to support my theory that all our green slip flying over the years (that we were told would “help our staffing model in the future”) really only served to reduce pilot schedule-manipulation flexibility via reduced blue days. Until the company matches block hours to actual crew resources and not a revenue-addicted pipe dream, we and our customers are fooked.
This is showing to be true. The company just flat out admitted that they are not going to add staffing due to our contractual reserve requirement increase due to GS’s. It is just handicapping ourselves. Back to us playing checkers and them playing chess. It might raise our required min staffing but the company never staffed us at those past numbers anyway.
04-10-2023, 09:08 AM
#1957
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
The Dollar is in serious trouble. But so is the Euro. So are banks worldwide. There is nothing better about the Euro, the EU economy or ECB that would drive a 40% currency premium like you suggested. Even if there were, it would be very transitory. If it somehow were lasting, the EU and AB would do whatever it took to preserve AB sales. Worse case for AB, they'd juice up their EX-IM scam and pay us to take them before they just stopped the lines.
04-10-2023, 09:22 AM
#1959
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 2,469
don’t discredit a 5 year NB B now looking at A seniority decently into lineholder range and A rates 300+
I talk to more NB B’s who are eyeing the left seat then eyeing international. Not that I’m saying that sample size means much, but you’d have to also figure there’s going to be some chasing the $ sign and it not be a WB.
That being said, I still don’t see this wave of seniority making 330 even more senior with the amount of WB A seats retiring then factor in 15 new 330’s by end of next year. That’s a lot of growth, on a fleet already pretty strapped for staffing.
I talk to more NB B’s who are eyeing the left seat then eyeing international. Not that I’m saying that sample size means much, but you’d have to also figure there’s going to be some chasing the $ sign and it not be a WB.
That being said, I still don’t see this wave of seniority making 330 even more senior with the amount of WB A seats retiring then factor in 15 new 330’s by end of next year. That’s a lot of growth, on a fleet already pretty strapped for staffing.
04-10-2023, 09:22 AM
#1960
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
Right. But there's a decade and a half hiring gap if you don't include the barely 1000-ish between 2007 and 2014. That thousand is spread all over. And the category you mention is expanding.
It wouldn't suprise me to see a few 2014's sneak into WBA here or there in the coming year or three.
It wouldn't suprise me to see a few 2014's sneak into WBA here or there in the coming year or three.
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