gloopy

I don't think they're doing that aspect of it intentionally. Not only is it a perpetual hit to the brand, but its exponentially more of a hit to the HVC's who are far more inconvenienced than the average super saver. If you egt to Disney a few hours later than planned maybe you don't get to do one of the rides on the first day, big deal. Miss an imporant business meeting/deal/sale and its a much bigger deal.

It also disrupts the hub/flight bank model, as that 20% seats of the day that were cancelled, the vast majority of that flight will take 2-4 next flights to get there. That's not an efficient or savvy 80/20 revenue gambit; its an operational wrench in the gears. Then once open flights are now oversold for the rest of the day(s) causing crews to miss commutes or have to bump revenue pax which were already bumped.

Is some of this happening when operaitons "run a little hot"? Of course. But I don't think they are planning on canceling all these flights. If they wanted to do that they could just pull down the flights in advance and move the fare buckets and run a more reliable operation with the same capacity and yields. I really think they (the intire industry) are actually thinking they're going to capture more capacity than they can and only cancelling on an ad hoc basis.

TED74

What do you mean “years ago”? We oversell the crap out of our flights and every level of premium cabin. Management is very proud of how well they do it and how much additional revenue we generate with the associated algorithms.

vyperdriver

What's an AE?

HondaForizon

Advanced Entitlement

nene

Bad attempt of humor by repeatedly using the same line to absurdity........

higney85

I guess whatever we have for the summer is now pretty “locked in”. Honestly, scared. Yes, we have new hires in the pipeline for FO spots and some CA seats still awaiting the training fill, but things have been beyond “hot” in just the spring months. A June/July bid (AE) to fill seats for current pilots and new hires, with WB attrition (retirements) and pay banding for all the top 3 vs 1 seat is going to be very interesting. By waiting, the bid will need to be large for volume of A seat movement, which will spur B seat movement and allocation for new hires. Being that it will essentially be a fall/winter timeline- the bid will need to be rather large and potentially massive. I’m predicting a WB A wall to fall to 2014. While we may need a BOS pilot base for multiple fleets, and likely an opening of others, a big 365 could happen but it’s bigger churn. I’ll predict a massive 210, followed by a late fall bid with an open and displacement setup, and an early 2024 365 with some closures and fill to new bases. However the timeline, there is a huge amount of movement possible. The COVID AE is done with locks released so seniority will actually matter, but there is no way massive options with some real “outlying bid” hits won’t materialize.

Arvik

Apologies for my ignorance, but what do "massive 210" and "big 365" mean in this context?

FlexManFlex

With the COVID locks released, you think 350/330 will stay relatively junior in the 12,000s like now?

JustNarced

I think they are waiting to see what the economy does. It's feeling a lot like 2007 as of late.

Oh, and there are like 1300 pilots from 2007 till 2014 that have been here over 15 years, I'd imagine most will take WB-A. I'd say the same for 2000 crowd which is right at the junior end of WB-A now and extends to seniority 5000 or so, so another 1500 pilots that have been here a really long time! You have 3000 pilots that have been here between 15 years and 24 years that will just be able to hold it on the next few bids. Junior WB-A is 3500, 500 retirements a year for 8 years, then it tapers off. It's just math unless many are really digging domestic.

FangsF15

Nope. I think 330 will be the new senior aircraft. But I’ve been wrong before.