Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
02-28-2023, 08:23 AM
#1421
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,674
I'm not entirely sold on that. Yes, NB A pay will be great, but then again by next Jan 1, nearly every NB B over 3 years seniority will be over 200/hr, so not a bad life either. I think it'll stay split a little more where guys who can hole good seniority on an A seat will go, and so will the really junior guys for the pay bump. I think the middle of the B pack will mostly stand pat and enjoy the good pay AND good B seniority.
02-28-2023, 08:32 AM
#1422
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
People will say the 350 will go junior because 330 trip mix is so great but then fail to look at 330 in most bases flies very little variety. 6 day trips to LHR/AMS/CDG. West coast may see ICN and HND. I don’t understand this whole 330 is so dominant over 350 stuff. It all depends on the base …
If variety is such a priority you’d bid the ER and go all of the best parts of Europe, IMO.
I also don’t follow notion of widebody going to move THAT much more senior. This year we see 6 widebody deliveres. Next year that goes up to 16. We lose about 1000 pilots by then (bet a decent chunk is WB A) that will create movement to WB A and therefore more WB B slots on top of WB growth.
whether or not 330/350 trends to new hires, I doubt it. But last AE everyone knew about the TA. MSP/DTW trended a lot more junior on 300 (had openings), NYC330 went to new hires and 765 went a lot more senior, on top of some of the other domestic A categories going more senior than previous behaviors.
I say this every AE but this thread has been assuming now WB is going to keep going senior for about the last 7 AE’s since they went to new hires. NB A is going to attract a lot more people and WB growth is still going to create movement, I doubt we see WB movement move so much more senior it’s even worth discussing. If moving more senior at all. Some of us want to enjoy lazy FO life, some want to make bank, some want international. Just my 2c on where I’d wager my money.
If variety is such a priority you’d bid the ER and go all of the best parts of Europe, IMO.
I also don’t follow notion of widebody going to move THAT much more senior. This year we see 6 widebody deliveres. Next year that goes up to 16. We lose about 1000 pilots by then (bet a decent chunk is WB A) that will create movement to WB A and therefore more WB B slots on top of WB growth.
whether or not 330/350 trends to new hires, I doubt it. But last AE everyone knew about the TA. MSP/DTW trended a lot more junior on 300 (had openings), NYC330 went to new hires and 765 went a lot more senior, on top of some of the other domestic A categories going more senior than previous behaviors.
I say this every AE but this thread has been assuming now WB is going to keep going senior for about the last 7 AE’s since they went to new hires. NB A is going to attract a lot more people and WB growth is still going to create movement, I doubt we see WB movement move so much more senior it’s even worth discussing. If moving more senior at all. Some of us want to enjoy lazy FO life, some want to make bank, some want international. Just my 2c on where I’d wager my money.
02-28-2023, 08:42 AM
#1424
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2022
Posts: 339
And the NB A rates will increase proportionally to be as much of a percentage higher than WB B than they currently are minus any banding change. If someone was bidding NB A for the money gain over WB B, they will still continue to enjoy that same premium.
02-28-2023, 08:44 AM
#1425
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Position: A350 Both
Posts: 7,292
People will say the 350 will go junior because 330 trip mix is so great but then fail to look at 330 in most bases flies very little variety. 6 day trips to LHR/AMS/CDG. West coast may see ICN and HND. I don’t understand this whole 330 is so dominant over 350 stuff. It all depends on the base …
If variety is such a priority you’d bid the ER and go all of the best parts of Europe, IMO.
I also don’t follow notion of widebody going to move THAT much more senior. This year we see 6 widebody deliveres. Next year that goes up to 16. We lose about 1000 pilots by then (bet a decent chunk is WB A) that will create movement to WB A and therefore more WB B slots on top of WB growth.
whether or not 330/350 trends to new hires, I doubt it. But last AE everyone knew about the TA. MSP/DTW trended a lot more junior on 300 (had openings), NYC330 went to new hires and 765 went a lot more senior, on top of some of the other domestic A categories going more senior than previous behaviors.
I say this every AE but this thread has been assuming now WB is going to keep going senior for about the last 7 AE’s since they went to new hires. NB A is going to attract a lot more people and WB growth is still going to create movement, I doubt we see WB movement move so much more senior it’s even worth discussing. If moving more senior at all. Some of us want to enjoy lazy FO life, some want to make bank, some want international. Just my 2c on where I’d wager my money.
If variety is such a priority you’d bid the ER and go all of the best parts of Europe, IMO.
I also don’t follow notion of widebody going to move THAT much more senior. This year we see 6 widebody deliveres. Next year that goes up to 16. We lose about 1000 pilots by then (bet a decent chunk is WB A) that will create movement to WB A and therefore more WB B slots on top of WB growth.
whether or not 330/350 trends to new hires, I doubt it. But last AE everyone knew about the TA. MSP/DTW trended a lot more junior on 300 (had openings), NYC330 went to new hires and 765 went a lot more senior, on top of some of the other domestic A categories going more senior than previous behaviors.
I say this every AE but this thread has been assuming now WB is going to keep going senior for about the last 7 AE’s since they went to new hires. NB A is going to attract a lot more people and WB growth is still going to create movement, I doubt we see WB movement move so much more senior it’s even worth discussing. If moving more senior at all. Some of us want to enjoy lazy FO life, some want to make bank, some want international. Just my 2c on where I’d wager my money.
And none of this post is intended as snippy
02-28-2023, 08:56 AM
#1426
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
So are you saying that all this 'NB rotations suck' is a myth? It's either that or Delta has hired a stable full of masochists. Why would you put up with ****ty trips as a NB-A when you can make just about as much as a WB-B and have the easy life? Isn't this agreement all about QOL? Or do you think the rotations are going to become decent with the signing of this agreement?
And none of this post is intended as snippy
And none of this post is intended as snippy
Some have discussed widebody, most don’t. I’ve only been here 3 years and the rotations sucked when we arrived. I come from regionals, so some of the mentality is “this is better than regionals”. I am with you, this crap y’all fly sucks. That’s why I am still right seat of the ER to avoid all of it, but many people I talk to really don’t view it that bad and still hold off 15-16+ a month.
Some also think the rotations will become decent with contract change. I think the only way to get back those really nice domestic rotations we had before my time here was a slowdown in travel. With these retirements and this demand, it’s going to be crazy on the optimizer until something gives. I bet there will be noticable changes from PWA, but I’m not going to hold my breath on a home run. There’s also the implementation timeline, so when we see a big change will take a while.
02-28-2023, 09:18 AM
#1427
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Position: On the hotel shuttle
Posts: 5,953
This is correct. I predicted a mass exodus of senior ER's (both seats) to 765 during the last AE. This will only intensify.
02-28-2023, 09:19 AM
#1428
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Posts: 1,920
My point is “a lot” is relative because without growth and/or displacements every one of those ERAs will have to wait for someone to retire for a spot to open.
02-28-2023, 10:37 AM
#1429
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 73N
Posts: 863
No I absolutely agree with NB rotation crap. But from what we’ve seen in previous bids and what I’ve seen talking to a large majority of my friends is most have just decided to upgrade and make more money off the crappy rotations than sit around and wait for WB. Or commute to east coast for it, person depending.
Some have discussed widebody, most don’t. I’ve only been here 3 years and the rotations sucked when we arrived. I come from regionals, so some of the mentality is “this is better than regionals”. I am with you, this crap y’all fly sucks. That’s why I am still right seat of the ER to avoid all of it, but many people I talk to really don’t view it that bad and still hold off 15-16+ a month.
Some also think the rotations will become decent with contract change. I think the only way to get back those really nice domestic rotations we had before my time here was a slowdown in travel. With these retirements and this demand, it’s going to be crazy on the optimizer until something gives. I bet there will be noticable changes from PWA, but I’m not going to hold my breath on a home run. There’s also the implementation timeline, so when we see a big change will take a while.
Some have discussed widebody, most don’t. I’ve only been here 3 years and the rotations sucked when we arrived. I come from regionals, so some of the mentality is “this is better than regionals”. I am with you, this crap y’all fly sucks. That’s why I am still right seat of the ER to avoid all of it, but many people I talk to really don’t view it that bad and still hold off 15-16+ a month.
Some also think the rotations will become decent with contract change. I think the only way to get back those really nice domestic rotations we had before my time here was a slowdown in travel. With these retirements and this demand, it’s going to be crazy on the optimizer until something gives. I bet there will be noticable changes from PWA, but I’m not going to hold my breath on a home run. There’s also the implementation timeline, so when we see a big change will take a while.
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