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Old 02-10-2023, 03:35 PM
  #1251  
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Originally Posted by saturn
When discussing a seniority number to reach WB A in ones career, keep in mind you're probably being conservative if you just snap shot 2023:
  1. We have 112 WBs at top rate, but a WB fleet of 150+ if including 767-300s. Those 45 ERs are being replaced by larger WBs, and will be gone in a decade. Even in a static 1-1 replacement/zero growth model, WB A will be a higher seniority number.
  2. As the airline grows over the course of your career, so should total pilot headcount. Relative seniorty to reach the WB A may likely be the same %, but arrive at a higher digit seniority number. Another factor is if we grow international block hours at a higher rate than we normally do.
Lots of unknowns and black swans over 30+year career. But assuming today 3k seniorty number to hold WB A could end up being 6k in 2040.
Absolutely, great points. We’ve got 34 outstanding orders for 330/350s, and I think it’s probably more are coming, that will 100% adjust the “line” of WB A.
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Old 02-11-2023, 05:05 AM
  #1252  
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Can we all agree that looking at final retirement number when you are 25 years old or even 50 is a joke?

So much has to go right…no mergers, airline stays in business, robots don’t take your job, world war, hyper loop, not to mention by far the most possible derailment - your health.

I agree it’s fun to look though.

More importantly than what you finish at though, is how long you remain in a top percentage.
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Old 02-11-2023, 05:49 AM
  #1253  
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Originally Posted by Gone Flying
[edited because my reading comprehension sucks]

If we hire 2,000 this year, by the end of the year approximately 2/3 of our pilots will have been hired since 2014. on 1/1/24 the most senior 2014 hire is projected to be about 5900 and at that pace our pilot group would be about 16,500.

after the GS and hiring bonanza dies down I think quite a few 14-20 hires will bid the left seat and it will go back to taking about 65-70% RS company wide to hold CA, with maybe some below that in NY.
This right here is a good argument to jump to the left seat ASAP, once you are there it’s hard to take away from you. Unless you ride the Maddog to the end anyway…

Oh, and this advice only applies if you are junior to me!
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Old 02-11-2023, 06:46 AM
  #1254  
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Originally Posted by marcal
Can we all agree that looking at final retirement number when you are 25 years old or even 50 is a joke?

So much has to go right…no mergers, airline stays in business, robots don’t take your job, world war, hyper loop, not to mention by far the most possible derailment - your health.

I agree it’s fun to look though.

More importantly than what you finish at though, is how long you remain in a top percentage.
I mean, not many people really do anything with that number. Sounds to me like a bitter post. The conversation obviously had context that led to that discussion. Sure, any of us could die tomorrow. Everyone knows what # you retire at means nothing.
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Old 02-11-2023, 06:57 AM
  #1255  
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Originally Posted by saturn
When discussing a seniority number to reach WB A in ones career, keep in mind you're probably being conservative if you just snap shot 2023:
  1. We have 112 WBs at top rate, but a WB fleet of 150+ if including 767-300s. Those 45 ERs are being replaced by larger WBs, and will be gone in a decade. Even in a static 1-1 replacement/zero growth model, WB A will be a higher seniority number.
  2. As the airline grows over the course of your career, so should total pilot headcount. Relative seniorty to reach the WB A may likely be the same %, but arrive at a higher digit seniority number. Another factor is if we grow international block hours at a higher rate than we normally do.
Lots of unknowns and black swans over 30+year career. But assuming today 3k seniorty number to hold WB A could end up being 6k in 2040.
I have a feeling it will get to that by NLT 2030. Bold prediction 2026 and early 2014 hires in 2025
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Old 02-11-2023, 08:44 AM
  #1256  
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I will say going on podcasts to tell people you’re gonna retire #1 or the new latest is “youngest 767 captain in the United States” as just went trending on YouTube is quite possibly the most cringe thing you could do.

and no you won’t be an international captain, you’re going to Orlando followed by 4 legs the next day.
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Old 02-11-2023, 09:26 AM
  #1257  
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Originally Posted by tcco94
I will say going on podcasts to tell people you’re gonna retire #1 or the new latest is “youngest 767 captain in the United States” as just went trending on YouTube is quite possibly the most cringe thing you could do.

and no you won’t be an international captain, you’re going to Orlando followed by 4 legs the next day.
Who is saying they are the “youngest 767 captain” ?
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Old 02-11-2023, 09:38 AM
  #1258  
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Originally Posted by FAIPMAFIA
Who is saying they are the “youngest 767 captain” ?
IG/tiktok influencer culture is full of this
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Old 02-11-2023, 10:08 AM
  #1259  
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Originally Posted by OOfff
IG/tiktok influencer culture is full of this
This^^^^. Even better I saw one from a podcast recently and the guy claimed “youngest 767 captain in the world”. As the clip went on you realize that he’s been “awarded” 767 CA and he’s 28…. 😂
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Old 02-11-2023, 10:32 AM
  #1260  
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Originally Posted by Abouttime2fish
This right here is a good argument to jump to the left seat ASAP, once you are there it’s hard to take away from you. Unless you ride the Maddog to the end anyway…

Oh, and this advice only applies if you are junior to me!
What that tells me is that any super junior pilot who takes the early upgrade to the left seat will be at/near the bottom for a looooong time.

Hope the money is worth it to those who do it.
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