Whoopsmybad

I’m pretty sure we have some smart people that have ran things to see what this would affect. It’s all war gaming though. But either our schedules get better, or we get paid a lot more for it. I tend to think it’ll be somewhere in the middle.

Baradium

The parameters were developed by plugging numbers into the optimizer, these numbers were designed to make the types of schedules we like the cheapest option to make the optimizer want to build them.

tcco94

Zurich is going back to the ER. The best advice is to not bid a specific jet for the overnights as this stuff changes month to month. Unless you’re on the 350 doing legs no other airplane can. ER and 400 change up a lot of stuff and even flex 330 stuff from time to time.

I’d say bid -400 to do Europe and intl. but I wouldn’t pinpoint it to one location since any of that stuff could change at moments notice (if you’re on ER/-400/330 that is). But I do this Geneva is staying out on the -400. Again, who knows. Airline probably doesn’t even know

JamesBond

Yep. But I really don't think a lot of imagination is required to see how this summer is gonna play out. You get more money, but if you look at the implementation schedule you will see that there are many of the QOL items that are delayed until after the summer. It won't change anything about WB international, but if you NB guys think this will improve your life much THIS summer, you should rethink that.

chrisreedrules

Its not about this summer. It’s about the future summers. This contract won’t be perfect just like every contract every labor group has ever had isn’t perfect. There will undoubtedly be issues post implementation. And I don’t expect this will solve everything about trip construction and quality of life. But it’s a massive step in the right direction and sets a new standard for what soft pay and quality of life in a contract should look like. Trips will improve some, and the trips that stink will pay more. No one is ever going to be happy with it 100%. And there are certainly elements of this TA that I’m not happy about, but overall I think it’s a good contract and voting it down won’t mean we get more. The negotiating environments between now and TA1/2 are apples/oranges.

FangsF15

Here is why I don't think it will happen this way:
1. We have been pretty consistent at hiring ~100/month since 2014, except a brief period in the fall of 2018, and during Covid
2. We are currently hiring about 200/month, but it won't stay that high. They have already said they will scale that back to the historical 100/month (pre-AIP that target was > summer 23, but with the new contract driving a slight increase in headcount, that target has moved back to the end of 2023).
3. We have hired over 3200+ pilots just in the 21 months post-covid. That's a huge bow wave of pilots - in the exact time of these super-super-quick upgrades. They have (mostly) yet to bid for that upgrade.
4. This upgrade timing is literally not sustainable. It's like a snake with a huge rabbit stuck right at the beginning of it's length. That has to work it's way down before anything settles out. The snake won't eat again for a while...
5. Even without that bow-wave, when we are (projected to) go back to the 2014-2020 hiring rates, I would expect the upgrade timing to return to a similar rate as then. But especially with that bow-wave...
6. Contract 19 has a lot of pay and QOL incraseses which will likely contribute to more folks deciding to take that upgrade they have been bypassing thus far. Likely.

Having said all that, predicting bidding behavior has eluded me in the past, so I could be wrong. I just worry about prospective hires looking at the current snapshot in time, and thinking it will be like that for them. I would strongly caution against those expectations.

Just my 2 cents

Gone Flying

[edited because my reading comprehension sucks]

If we hire 2,000 this year, by the end of the year approximately 2/3 of our pilots will have been hired since 2014. on 1/1/24 the most senior 2014 hire is projected to be about 5900 and at that pace our pilot group would be about 16,500.

after the GS and hiring bonanza dies down I think quite a few 14-20 hires will bid the left seat and it will go back to taking about 65-70% RS company wide to hold CA, with maybe some below that in NY.

PilotBases

Pretty interesting with the hiring rates. It’ll roughly take a late 2023 hire 4 years to get where an 2021 hire started, without doing math. Based on historical norms, we’re hiring two years every year (2022/23). Guys who come in once hiring “slows” to a still respectable 100/month will not get the same magic carpet ride the early 2021 hiring group got, thanks to VEOP and whatnot.

FangsF15

I did note the hiring stopped in the Fall of 2018, and also during Covid which accounts for 2020. However, I had forgotten that 2019 was only about 450 hires. Thanks for pointing that out for accuracy.

Gone Flying

whoops, sorry. I see that now.

I definitely think the peaks and valleys in how and how many we have hired in the past 10 years will create some interesting seniority dynamics in the coming years.