What Is Full Retro
09-28-2022, 12:57 PM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Posts: 798
Management will make a compelling case to the NC that *they* are not entirely responsible for inflation.
They will also make a case that retro should not include the darkest days of covid. AS TA proposed retro only goes back to Oct 2021, skipping Apr 2020 - Sep 2021 for that reason.
Let your peeps know how you feel now, if you feel strongly about it and don't want to be surprised by the TA.
They will also make a case that retro should not include the darkest days of covid. AS TA proposed retro only goes back to Oct 2021, skipping Apr 2020 - Sep 2021 for that reason.
Let your peeps know how you feel now, if you feel strongly about it and don't want to be surprised by the TA.
A5S
09-28-2022, 03:39 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,523
Why is this even a question? Nah, retro is perk.
WTF? Because we have a government that forces us to work for old rates we should just forgo the compensation when an agreement is finally settled? What kind of moronic logic is this?
WTF? Because we have a government that forces us to work for old rates we should just forgo the compensation when an agreement is finally settled? What kind of moronic logic is this?
09-28-2022, 04:49 PM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Position: Hoping for any position
Posts: 2,529
This. Right. Here.
09-29-2022, 05:45 AM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2020
Posts: 560
Agree 100%. Pay up Ed.
09-29-2022, 07:24 AM
#16
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 194
What is FULL RETRO?
It seems that some of our reps are having a hard time understanding inflation and its effect on our pay rates, benefits, standard of living, and how this effects negotiations wrt full retro. The Delta pilot group last had a pay raise of 4% on Jan 2019. Mgmt continues to drag their feet helped by the poor performance of the NMB and the mediators that have been "assisting" in negotiations for multiple airline pilot contracts that are years overdue.
So, what is fair to expect in terms of full retro when this contract TA arrives?
First, full retro is back pay for work that our pilots have already performed. It is reasonable to expect annual pay raises and increases in benefits, and just because mgmt is dragging their feet doesn't mean that those pay raises and benefits for 2020, 2021, and 2022 should simply be forgiven or evaporate. Our bills, living expenses, and costs on the road have all been going up significantly. How much?
Inflation has spiked 16.7% just since Jan 2021 through this past August 2022. This means that our pay rates must go up 16.7% just to keep pace with inflation. This is before we address any pay rate increases (pay raises) and increases in benefits. Think about that point.
We should expect to achieve very reasonable pay rate increases AFTER inflation adjustments of 3% for 2020, 5% for 2021, and 5% for 2022 (IMO). This would mean we would need pay rate increases of 4.4% for 2020 (3% pay rate increase on top of 1.4% inflation), 12% for 2021 (5% pay rate increase on top of 7% inflation), and 13.3% for 2022 (5% pay rate increase on top of 8.3% inflation). This would mean a cumulative pay rate increase on our 2019 pay rates of 32.48% just through 2022.
That 32.48% pay rate increase from our 2019 pay rates looks like a big number, and it is given the number of pilots and the amount of revenue that we generate for DAL. Mgmt is hoping to keep that number much lower. This will allow mgmt to cap expenses BEFORE they raise prices to keep up with inflation and improve our profits. No matter what our contract increase is, mgmt will move to cover those expenses and raise prices to reflect inflation and generate profits. They've done it most of my three decades here at Delta. What makes our ask "look" unreasonable is the number of years mgmt has been putting off settling our contract.
Full retro also includes increases in 401K contributions, vacation pay, training pay, per diem, and other benefits going back to our amendable date. Mgmt is hoping our pilot group suffers amnesia regarding these issues, but it is fair to go back and adjust full retro to include all of these benefits. This will make the full retro number look very large, and it is because mgmt has failed to address our contract for three plus years now.
Just for some perspective, C2015 captured a contract value increase of $3.17 Billion during extremely low inflation. This represents a contract value increase of 27.1%
Contact your reps. Let them know what you expect for full retro. Don't let the mgmt friendly reps on our MEC lowball this contract and the required increases in pay and benefits since 2019.
We don't work for free. We expect full retro on pay and benefits back to our amendable date for our "sacrifices", time away from family, and outstanding performance during extremely challenging times. Retro is not a bonus. It is money owed for services rendered.
KNOW WHAT YOU ARE VOTING ON IN THIS NEXT TA.
I copied this from another Delta pilot forum with the OP’s permission.
It seems that some of our reps are having a hard time understanding inflation and its effect on our pay rates, benefits, standard of living, and how this effects negotiations wrt full retro. The Delta pilot group last had a pay raise of 4% on Jan 2019. Mgmt continues to drag their feet helped by the poor performance of the NMB and the mediators that have been "assisting" in negotiations for multiple airline pilot contracts that are years overdue.
So, what is fair to expect in terms of full retro when this contract TA arrives?
First, full retro is back pay for work that our pilots have already performed. It is reasonable to expect annual pay raises and increases in benefits, and just because mgmt is dragging their feet doesn't mean that those pay raises and benefits for 2020, 2021, and 2022 should simply be forgiven or evaporate. Our bills, living expenses, and costs on the road have all been going up significantly. How much?
Inflation has spiked 16.7% just since Jan 2021 through this past August 2022. This means that our pay rates must go up 16.7% just to keep pace with inflation. This is before we address any pay rate increases (pay raises) and increases in benefits. Think about that point.
We should expect to achieve very reasonable pay rate increases AFTER inflation adjustments of 3% for 2020, 5% for 2021, and 5% for 2022 (IMO). This would mean we would need pay rate increases of 4.4% for 2020 (3% pay rate increase on top of 1.4% inflation), 12% for 2021 (5% pay rate increase on top of 7% inflation), and 13.3% for 2022 (5% pay rate increase on top of 8.3% inflation). This would mean a cumulative pay rate increase on our 2019 pay rates of 32.48% just through 2022.
That 32.48% pay rate increase from our 2019 pay rates looks like a big number, and it is given the number of pilots and the amount of revenue that we generate for DAL. Mgmt is hoping to keep that number much lower. This will allow mgmt to cap expenses BEFORE they raise prices to keep up with inflation and improve our profits. No matter what our contract increase is, mgmt will move to cover those expenses and raise prices to reflect inflation and generate profits. They've done it most of my three decades here at Delta. What makes our ask "look" unreasonable is the number of years mgmt has been putting off settling our contract.
Full retro also includes increases in 401K contributions, vacation pay, training pay, per diem, and other benefits going back to our amendable date. Mgmt is hoping our pilot group suffers amnesia regarding these issues, but it is fair to go back and adjust full retro to include all of these benefits. This will make the full retro number look very large, and it is because mgmt has failed to address our contract for three plus years now.
Just for some perspective, C2015 captured a contract value increase of $3.17 Billion during extremely low inflation. This represents a contract value increase of 27.1%
Contact your reps. Let them know what you expect for full retro. Don't let the mgmt friendly reps on our MEC lowball this contract and the required increases in pay and benefits since 2019.
We don't work for free. We expect full retro on pay and benefits back to our amendable date for our "sacrifices", time away from family, and outstanding performance during extremely challenging times. Retro is not a bonus. It is money owed for services rendered.
KNOW WHAT YOU ARE VOTING ON IN THIS NEXT TA.
I copied this from another Delta pilot forum with the OP’s permission.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UhM9
Inflation:
2020 - 1.23%
2021 - 4.7%
2022 isn’t known yet, but it’s looking to be around 8%.
My math says the compounded rate to made whole on inflation up to Jan 1 2023 is 14.47%. This is the absolute minimum for retro in my mind.
Ideally, I would justify a real raise in 2021 and 2022, while acknowledging the difficulty for the corporation and the US economy in 2020. I would except an argument for an inflation only for that years. How much of a minimum real raise? Considering our track record of lagging inflation, I would consider 1% to be a major victory when considering a minimum. Of course I would be pleased with more. So add another couple of 1% increases for 2021-2022. Now we’re up to 16.77% compounded rate for retro.
Going forward, an estimate for future inflation must be utilized. An estimate can be generated from historical data plus future inflation expectations. The company will want use future inflation expectations because both the US interest rate yield curve and the Eurodollar futures market are inverted. This says relative deflation and lower interest rates are coming. We will want to use the trailing annual inflation rate because after 14 years it is spiking above 3%, currently running at 4.6%. The futures rate will not help us.
I will assume that we prevail at the table, and a 3 year trailing inflation rate will be the metric. Therefore, the 2 annual raises forward, assuming a 5 year deal should be 4.6% in order to not lose ground. Historically, that’s a win. But, I want to go forward. So, as a minimum I’ll add two 1% real raises for 2023 and 2024, making those annual raises 5.6%.
So my minimum is compounded 16.77% retro check for earnings 2020-2022. Then 5.6% date of signing and 5.6% for 2024. Total compounded rate for 5 years of 30.2%. This is an annual compounded rate of 5.4% and compares favorably to the trailing 3 year inflation rate of 4.6%.
Many will say that I’m a management plant or something similarly stupid. Fine, you can’t fix stupid. What I’m angling for is a minimum where you decide whether to blow yourself up or not. In this environment one must figure out where that line is because the stakes are quite a bit higher when inflation is running at 4.6% rather than 2.5%.
Do I think we will get a real raise? United will shortly clarify that question a bit. Their TA is a long way away from that 30% figure. Our mediators are watching. I will say victory declared on the numbers, disregarding personal metrics of perceived value, would be to capture inflation. We have lagged historically and real wages in the US have been flat for 4 decades. We have underperformed and have lost ground to inflation and peers in the US economy.
So I’m not saying we shoot for these numbers. We are and should try to increase the margin between inflation and our pay rates. That would be construed as “restoring the profession.”
We now know what happens when a TA is rejected. Another year (minimum) will go by, the MEC and negotiating committee is demolished and then reconstituted. Personally, I see a lot of ugly going forward for the global economy as that process would unfold. I’m not suggesting a rubber stamp is warranted, only that a cavalier demolition could be a disaster.
So I think it’s beneficial to have some idea what the risks are in the future and at what point taking on the risk will likely yield a potential real return.
If I were management, I would structure my minimum deal:
9% effective retroactive 2022, 5.6% 2023, 5.6% 2024. Signing bonus of 7% for 2020,21 earnings. Retro and signing bonus allocation is all about optics. I would not like to admit to paying “100%” retro. 7% sounds much better.
I don’t know about the 3.17 billion number for the increase of value for the last contract. Assuming that’s true and it was a 27.1% increase, the 30% increase looks pretty favorable in comparison and is 10.7% increase in percentage growth.
Inflation between 2015-2019 ran very low, 1.5% annually compounded. Real raises are easier to achieve in that inflationary environment. In our case we made a pretty dramatic claw back of value, at the time I considered to be within 90% of “par” where par is an achievable level of historical compensation. We’re in a far tougher environment with current trailing inflation at 4.6%.
My hope is United advances the ball and much depends on them. Real gains are achievable. I just wish we were in a leadership position rather than United.
Last edited by Mooner; 09-29-2022 at 07:34 AM.
09-29-2022, 07:43 AM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 194
The alternate take is I’m telling a fib because it’s funny. I really care about my future, yours, and everyone else’s.
09-29-2022, 07:44 AM
#20
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jun 2014
Posts: 80
To compare apples apples, we all have to agree on some stuff up front. Firstly, the concept that we should at a minimum capture inflation. Secondly and historically speaking, we have failed to achieve this minimum. I think we are near total consensus on those points. Further, as a mechanical guide rail, we should agree on what inflation metric we are going to use for historical data. I use the annual Fed CPI inflation rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UhM9
Inflation:
2020 - 1.23%
2021 - 4.7%
2022 isn’t known yet, but it’s looking to be around 8%.
My math says the compounded rate to made whole on inflation up to Jan 1 2023 is 14.47%. This is the absolute minimum for retro in my mind.
Ideally, I would justify a real raise in 2021 and 2022, while acknowledging the difficulty for the corporation and the US economy in 2020. I would except an argument for an inflation only for that years. How much of a minimum real raise? Considering our track record of lagging inflation, I would consider 1% to be a major victory when considering a minimum. Of course I would be pleased with more. So add another couple of 1% increases for 2021-2022. Now we’re up to 16.77% compounded rate for retro.
Going forward, an estimate for future inflation must be utilized. An estimate can be generated from historical data plus future inflation expectations. The company will want use future inflation expectations because both the US interest rate yield curve and the Eurodollar futures market are inverted. This says relative deflation and lower interest rates are coming. We will want to use the trailing annual inflation rate because after 14 years it is spiking above 3%, currently running at 4.6%. The futures rate will not help us.
I will assume that we prevail at the table, and a 3 year trailing inflation rate will be the metric. Therefore, the 2 annual raises forward, assuming a 5 year deal should be 4.6% in order to not lose ground. Historically, that’s a win. But, I want to go forward. So, as a minimum I’ll add two 1% real raises for 2023 and 2024, making those annual raises 5.6%.
So my minimum is compounded 16.77% retro check for earnings 2020-2022. Then 5.6% date of signing and 5.6% for 2024. Total compounded rate for 5 years of 30.2%. This is an annual compounded rate of 5.4% and compares favorably to the trailing 3 year inflation rate of 4.6%.
Many will say that I’m a management plant or something similarly stupid. Fine, you can’t fix stupid. What I’m angling for is a minimum where you decide whether to blow yourself up or not. In this environment one must figure out where that line is because the stakes are quite a bit higher when inflation is running at 4.6% rather than 2.5%.
Do I think we will get a real raise? United will shortly clarify that question a bit. Their TA is a long way away from that 30% figure. Our mediators are watching. I will say victory declared on the numbers, disregarding personal metrics of perceived value, would be to capture inflation. We have lagged historically and real wages in the US have been flat for 4 decades. We have underperformed and have lost ground to inflation and peers in the US economy.
So I’m not saying we shoot for these numbers. We are and should try to increase the margin between inflation and our pay rates. That would be construed as “restoring the profession.”
We now know what happens when a TA is rejected. Another year (minimum) will go by, the MEC and negotiating committee is demolished and then reconstituted. Personally, I see a lot of ugly going forward for the global economy as that process would unfold. I’m not suggesting a rubber stamp is warranted, only that a cavalier demolition could be a disaster.
So I think it’s beneficial to have some idea what the risks are in the future and at what point taking on the risk will likely yield a potential real return.
If I were management, I would structure my minimum deal:
9% effective retroactive 2022, 5.6% 2023, 5.6% 2024. Signing bonus of 7% for 2020,21 earnings. Retro and signing bonus allocation is all about optics. I would not like to admit to paying “100%” retro. 7% sounds much better.
I don’t know about the 3.17 billion number for the increase of value for the last contract. Assuming that’s true and it was a 27.1% increase, the 30% increase looks pretty favorable in comparison and is 10.7% increase in percentage growth.
Inflation between 2015-2019 ran very low, 1.5% annually compounded. Real raises are easier to achieve in that inflationary environment. In our case we made a pretty dramatic claw back of value, at the time I considered to be within 90% of “par” where par is an achievable level of historical compensation. We’re in a far tougher environment with current trailing inflation at 4.6%.
My hope is United advances the ball and much depends on them. Real gains are achievable. I just wish we were in a leadership position rather than United.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UhM9
Inflation:
2020 - 1.23%
2021 - 4.7%
2022 isn’t known yet, but it’s looking to be around 8%.
My math says the compounded rate to made whole on inflation up to Jan 1 2023 is 14.47%. This is the absolute minimum for retro in my mind.
Ideally, I would justify a real raise in 2021 and 2022, while acknowledging the difficulty for the corporation and the US economy in 2020. I would except an argument for an inflation only for that years. How much of a minimum real raise? Considering our track record of lagging inflation, I would consider 1% to be a major victory when considering a minimum. Of course I would be pleased with more. So add another couple of 1% increases for 2021-2022. Now we’re up to 16.77% compounded rate for retro.
Going forward, an estimate for future inflation must be utilized. An estimate can be generated from historical data plus future inflation expectations. The company will want use future inflation expectations because both the US interest rate yield curve and the Eurodollar futures market are inverted. This says relative deflation and lower interest rates are coming. We will want to use the trailing annual inflation rate because after 14 years it is spiking above 3%, currently running at 4.6%. The futures rate will not help us.
I will assume that we prevail at the table, and a 3 year trailing inflation rate will be the metric. Therefore, the 2 annual raises forward, assuming a 5 year deal should be 4.6% in order to not lose ground. Historically, that’s a win. But, I want to go forward. So, as a minimum I’ll add two 1% real raises for 2023 and 2024, making those annual raises 5.6%.
So my minimum is compounded 16.77% retro check for earnings 2020-2022. Then 5.6% date of signing and 5.6% for 2024. Total compounded rate for 5 years of 30.2%. This is an annual compounded rate of 5.4% and compares favorably to the trailing 3 year inflation rate of 4.6%.
Many will say that I’m a management plant or something similarly stupid. Fine, you can’t fix stupid. What I’m angling for is a minimum where you decide whether to blow yourself up or not. In this environment one must figure out where that line is because the stakes are quite a bit higher when inflation is running at 4.6% rather than 2.5%.
Do I think we will get a real raise? United will shortly clarify that question a bit. Their TA is a long way away from that 30% figure. Our mediators are watching. I will say victory declared on the numbers, disregarding personal metrics of perceived value, would be to capture inflation. We have lagged historically and real wages in the US have been flat for 4 decades. We have underperformed and have lost ground to inflation and peers in the US economy.
So I’m not saying we shoot for these numbers. We are and should try to increase the margin between inflation and our pay rates. That would be construed as “restoring the profession.”
We now know what happens when a TA is rejected. Another year (minimum) will go by, the MEC and negotiating committee is demolished and then reconstituted. Personally, I see a lot of ugly going forward for the global economy as that process would unfold. I’m not suggesting a rubber stamp is warranted, only that a cavalier demolition could be a disaster.
So I think it’s beneficial to have some idea what the risks are in the future and at what point taking on the risk will likely yield a potential real return.
If I were management, I would structure my minimum deal:
9% effective retroactive 2022, 5.6% 2023, 5.6% 2024. Signing bonus of 7% for 2020,21 earnings. Retro and signing bonus allocation is all about optics. I would not like to admit to paying “100%” retro. 7% sounds much better.
I don’t know about the 3.17 billion number for the increase of value for the last contract. Assuming that’s true and it was a 27.1% increase, the 30% increase looks pretty favorable in comparison and is 10.7% increase in percentage growth.
Inflation between 2015-2019 ran very low, 1.5% annually compounded. Real raises are easier to achieve in that inflationary environment. In our case we made a pretty dramatic claw back of value, at the time I considered to be within 90% of “par” where par is an achievable level of historical compensation. We’re in a far tougher environment with current trailing inflation at 4.6%.
My hope is United advances the ball and much depends on them. Real gains are achievable. I just wish we were in a leadership position rather than United.
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