OOfff

the president of the company probably does have some inside info. But fourth floor rumors aren’t credible and never have been. You can see that in how many “leaks” come out that never bear fruit, and by how many actual purchases happen without rumor.

the signal to noise ratio is terribly low.

but i think I saw some ops going to measure gates for 787s

FangsF15

I think the most likely scenario is that this “leak” is specifically designed to make Airbus/RR believe they are going to lose the sale to Boeing if they don’t work with us on price. They are constantly using one against the other (e.g. GH’s “all Airbus WB airline” comment).

It’s one thing Mgmt actually does well, but also slows down the process terribly. By the time they sort it out, the delivery slots will have slipped an extra 6-12 months…

freezingflyboy

If i were trying to put pressure on one seller, that's what I'd say too. Have you guys never bought a car? I always try to pit two dealers against each other and just go back and forth. I remember buying a small SUV years ago and the dealer was being firm with the whole. Talked to the salesman, then the sales manager. "Oh its not up to me. This is the lowest I'm allowed to go. I'm losing money at this price. Blah blah blah." OK fine. I understand. I'll just go buy from the guy across town that's 3k cheaper. We'll whatdya know?! They suddenly found some wiggle room in the price!

GeneralLee

Correct. I first mentioned this months ago. RR is in a horrible position and can not afford to make any deals. Also I previously mentioned that one of our SVPs and current CFO both came from GE where they specifically worked on the GENx sales team (connect the dots..). Everyone is overlooking the fact that the MRO part of this is probably bigger than the actual order itself. DL has aggressive goals to make the MRO produce even more revenue. Having a GENx income stream would complement this goal. I would not be shocked at all to see a BA order. BA is pulling all the stops supposedly to get new WBs on property. These deals are extremely sensitive and as such we honestly won't know until we read about it in the WSJ or get a random email during the week stating the order.

I expect an Airbus order this round, but my hunch says at some point we see the 78 on property. The next order horizon is around 25/26 for placement around 2030. To be honest, the Airbus deal should have been wrapped up months ago and the fact that we still haven't made a decision is interesting.

PilotBases

Id agree with you here. Airbus for now (350-1000 for some heavy beef, 339 for the start of the 763 replacement). Come the 2030 cycle, it’ll be the last of the 763, the 764, and the oldest of the 333s coming up. That’s when it makes sense to have a 78 fleet. Need to get the 339 to a pretty robust size, fleet of 50s would work, and allow it to stand long after the 333s go.

crazyjaydawg

Last year RR was in no position to make deals. This year, they have updated their guidance to record revenue and profit with profit margins in the teens. A remarkable recovery when compared to last year’s numbers at this time.

To your point about MRO though, that is still a huge sticking point. A large part of RR’s turn around has been a huge increase in pricing, and subsequent revenues, in their MRO. They definitely don’t want to give up any part of that now.

BA is absolutely throwing themselves at Delta. The discount would have to be huge to make Daddy D take the leap, but replacing 767s with larger 787s can happen for a very good price.

sailingfun

United has 45 A350’s on order. They pushed the order back but have stated they plan on taking delivery.

PilotBases

They’ve pushed it back many times, I seriously doubt we actually see it. Last one moved it 5 years. They’re loading up on 78s these days.

Only chance I see for the 350 at United is the -1000 to replace the 773.

Don’t see the benefit to five widebody categories here, unless they want to speed run the removal of the 767s which would be a win for pilot pay.

sailingfun

They have had several opportunities to cancel the order in conjunction with A321 purchases. The fact they retained the orders indicates they have some interest in taking delivery. They also have started the process of more training facilities and new sim bays.

“ While the carrier's new commitments with Boeing made the headlines, its revised position on its A350 order garnered a little less attention. Nonetheless, the carrier did actually provide some insight on this Airbus widebody deal in recent months.

According to Aviation Week, a conference call saw United CFO Gerry Laderman disclose that his airline had agreed with Airbus modify the delivery schedule of the A350s. In fact, Laderman stated the A350 deliveries are not scheduled to start until 2030, adding that the A350s were a “really great option” to replace its aging Boeing 777s.”

PilotBases

Always heard the issue was not with Airbus but with Rolls on engine deposits. Hey maybe we can take their 350 orders and call it good.