JustNarced

I initially did as well, and 50/50 you are probably correct. That being said, according to this guy the S&P 495 has returned 0% since 2019. All the gains in the S&P 500 are due to five stocks, all growth stock. The other stocks were magically pulled up by ETFs, which there are more ETFs than underlying stocks. It's my understanding that growth stocks are inversely tied to the 10-yr treasury notes, which affect other treasure notes of longer and shorter terms. Lower rates, the more likely people will spend in the future. With PE ratios of 30+ investors are looking at paying 30x annual earnings per share price, looking forward three decades. If rates rise then typically growth stocks take a pounding and there is a rotation into value stocks. If the rates are too high, according to Gundlach this number is around 2%, then the economy starts to faulter at a production level (value stocks). The Fed has a tough balancing act, hyperinflation vs killing the economy. The only saving grace is that every other central bank is doing the same thing.

My 2022 predictions-

More Covid BS in Euroland and Asia
Lots of APU Sheriffs and new single engine continuous descent to landing profiles
ATL Captains will taxi even faster to save fuel (39.99 knt average)
Stocks drop hard, Fed backs off on rates and they fall back to 1.8 to 2.0, S&P up 10% overall
Domestic layovers will be a choice of working out, eating healthy or sleeping- but only one of the three.
Hiring continues
Angry stew will continue to drive policy that makes pilots miserable

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkZNZah0Z4k

12:00 Rates

17:15 S&P 495

21:45 Dollar

tunes

yep. I mean I was pretty firmly in the camp of the masks are ridiculous, but now that I had my original two shots and I'm just now finishing up my NFLY from getting it still, I'm beyond over them. This thing is spreading like wildfire and I think that's a great thing for us. When Dr. Ting is optimistic, that's pretty impressive and I hope they are taking all that into account when building the AE and don't stay chasing the tail like they have been.

Whoopsmybad

Rumor from a buddy who just flew with an LCA (I know, I know), but they aren’t backing off the bid, just delayed it a few weeks. It’ll still be a rather large WB bid.

Gunfighter

The spike of covid cases is creating a large list of travelers who have a 90 day exemption from pre-departure testing requirements on US bound flights.

COVID-19 Traveler Information (state.gov)

WakeWash

I keep hearing it will be a large WB bid and I really hope that’s true, but the new 330 guy on sky hub posted that he spoke with BS and was told to expect the bid in February and for it to have 75 330A spots, which would mean around 125 B spots. No clue what the 350 will have, but with 330 deliveries and the hopes of international bouncing back fast, I found this severely underwhelming.

tunes

let's hope that's accurate

sailingfun

My granddaughter and daughter are doing ok but pretty sick. Oxygen levels are doing good. Neither my wife or I have any symptoms and tested negative. We spent 4 days with them in a small condo until they had symptoms so I am a bit surprised we have been ok. Wife and I both had boosters 28 Dec.

PilotBases

I think we still have two 764s parked awaiting new interiors, so when they come back into play that could add a few more seats.

gloopy

Right. Market fundamentals are laughingly beyond reality. Yet a "crash up" is just as possible as a crash down. The Venezuelan stock market has been one of the best performers in the history of the world...as measured in their ever worthless currency.

Rate hikes are inevitable...but impossible for more than short periods of time. Look at national debt interest. Imagine that going up a percent or three. Impossible for more than a few quarters for comic relief of the Keynesians behind their curtains.

crazyjaydawg

75 is a good start on the 330s. I don’t think the deliveries start in earnest until later this year and Delta just made a big schedule cut in China acknowledging that the market will be worthless until 2023. With TPAC in the toilet and 330 backed up on OE, I think 75 330A is a good start.

Now if this is a MOAB and they’re planning 75 330A to convert over 365days and that’s it, then it would be massively disappointing and IMHO a huge mistake. If it’s 75 for now and then more on more AEs throughout the year, then I think it’s a reasonable approach.

If 350 and 765 see similar numbers, then 225 WB As with ~300 WB Bs on a normal (210 day) AE; that would drive some significant movement.