New Hire Class Drops
08-28-2023, 09:17 PM
#4581
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
Yep which is currently around 67% seniority. If hired today at 16,500 that would mean you’d need to be 11,000 to hold the plug SEA330. 400 retirements per year that puts a new hire at 14 years to hold it. We will be growing so with a 10% growth that puts you at 12,000 ish so 12 years to hold SEA330B.
Then you look at A’s they have retiring it’s a high number in that base. I wouldn’t be so sure that bid patterns remain the same as they did with the senior guys there. Seattle has seen a major shift from what it was 10-20 years ago.
then let’s look at what the 330 fleet size by 2030. A huge wildcard here if there’s an order and accelerated movement away from ER’s by 2030 internationally. If SLC opens, changes everything too. Could be good for a base like SEA.
do I think it’s going to be some dramatic movement junior? No. But I think to say it will be 12 years and bottom list will be 9-11’s even over the next decade…I’m not buying that either. That’s way to far out to speculate where seniority numbers or WBB lie.
08-29-2023, 08:50 PM
#4582
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2022
Posts: 633
I feel like these kinds of extrapolations are so subjective. Few things to note here with one being the fact 40% of pacific is still uncovered. Then you have to look at bid trends with the pacific recovery. SEA330 hasn’t had a bunch of openings on last few bids but trends about 3-500 seniority numbers more junior each bid. Last mock was even a larger jump down to 11.2 which didn’t make it through the final.
Then you look at A’s they have retiring it’s a high number in that base. I wouldn’t be so sure that bid patterns remain the same as they did with the senior guys there. Seattle has seen a major shift from what it was 10-20 years ago.
then let’s look at what the 330 fleet size by 2030. A huge wildcard here if there’s an order and accelerated movement away from ER’s by 2030 internationally. If SLC opens, changes everything too. Could be good for a base like SEA.
do I think it’s going to be some dramatic movement junior? No. But I think to say it will be 12 years and bottom list will be 9-11’s even over the next decade…I’m not buying that either. That’s way to far out to speculate where seniority numbers or WBB lie.
Then you look at A’s they have retiring it’s a high number in that base. I wouldn’t be so sure that bid patterns remain the same as they did with the senior guys there. Seattle has seen a major shift from what it was 10-20 years ago.
then let’s look at what the 330 fleet size by 2030. A huge wildcard here if there’s an order and accelerated movement away from ER’s by 2030 internationally. If SLC opens, changes everything too. Could be good for a base like SEA.
do I think it’s going to be some dramatic movement junior? No. But I think to say it will be 12 years and bottom list will be 9-11’s even over the next decade…I’m not buying that either. That’s way to far out to speculate where seniority numbers or WBB lie.
08-31-2023, 05:37 PM
#4586
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2022
Posts: 46
08-31-2023, 06:54 PM
#4587
Reserve Without End
Joined APC: Feb 2022
Posts: 150
08-31-2023, 07:15 PM
#4588
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2022
Posts: 46
Some folks on the RST group chat I'm on got assigned 10/17 today. Trend seems to be assigning class at the end of the week for six weeks into the future. Interviewees from the third week of July are getting assigned right now (of those that have immediate availability). Good luck!
08-31-2023, 07:48 PM
#4589
Reserve Without End
Joined APC: Feb 2022
Posts: 150
Some folks on the RST group chat I'm on got assigned 10/17 today. Trend seems to be assigning class at the end of the week for six weeks into the future. Interviewees from the third week of July are getting assigned right now (of those that have immediate availability). Good luck!
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