5 year Market Outlook opinions
09-20-2022, 07:55 AM
#861
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Joined APC: Sep 2013
Position: On the hotel shuttle
Posts: 5,908
1) $30,901,000,000,000 in debt. Check.
2) Increased political and media focus on "Equity." Check.
3) Increased political, academic and media attraction to socialism -- particularly among Gen Z. Check.
The median 401k balance of a 65-year-old is $87,000.
If you don't think your 401k's, particularly Roth funds, are going to up for grabs, well ... that's just evidence of your privilege.
2) Increased political and media focus on "Equity." Check.
3) Increased political, academic and media attraction to socialism -- particularly among Gen Z. Check.
The median 401k balance of a 65-year-old is $87,000.
If you don't think your 401k's, particularly Roth funds, are going to up for grabs, well ... that's just evidence of your privilege.
09-20-2022, 08:01 AM
#862
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Joined APC: Nov 2020
Posts: 1,891
False equivalency. Nationalizing 401ks is something that IMO would never be discussed unless we saw true economic collapse. Many of these politicians themselves have Roth IRAs. They proposed to remove the backdoor Roth loophole. That never made it through either. I wonder why (sarcasm). Point is, there’s a lot of fear porn out there, and then there’s reality. Things would have to get extremely ugly before some of these things happened. It’s just my take, I enjoy hearing optimistic and pessimistic views and then I make my own conclusion which is still always open for revision.
I hope your right that it never takes place, but making ROTH gains taxable wouldn't surprise me as an interim step. It would surely be taxiing the "rich" and popular among the vast amounts of electorate who don't have any ROTH IRA's.
Oh as interest rates rise, more and more of the federal budget will be devoured just paying interest on current debt. Pretty soon all other spending will be less and less significant % of budget and revenue streams will have to be created to keep making the credit card minimum payments.
Someone's gotta pay Dr Fauci's pension....
09-20-2022, 08:09 AM
#863
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Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,616
If one stroke of the presidential pen can shift hundreds of billions in student debt burden, it can do the same with retirement. The scariest part about student loan forgiveness isn't the potential trillion dollar cost, it is the normalization of shifting personal financial responsibility to anyone with more personal financial ability.
It's not a stretch to imagine a Fairly Applied Retirement Threshold Act that would remove half of your retirement account value above one million and transfer it to the "needy".
It's not a stretch to imagine a Fairly Applied Retirement Threshold Act that would remove half of your retirement account value above one million and transfer it to the "needy".
09-20-2022, 08:19 AM
#864
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Posts: 1,891
If one stroke of the presidential pen can shift hundreds of billions in student debt burden, it can do the same with retirement. The scariest part about student loan forgiveness isn't the potential trillion dollar cost, it is the normalization of shifting personal financial responsibility to anyone with more personal financial ability.
It's not a stretch to imagine a Fairly Applied Retirement Threshold Act that would remove half of your retirement account value above one million and transfer it to the "needy".
It's not a stretch to imagine a Fairly Applied Retirement Threshold Act that would remove half of your retirement account value above one million and transfer it to the "needy".
It amazes me that the congress/senate leaders are so willing to cede so much power to the executive, but the last few decades have shown that both sides are willing as long as the executive is doing their bidding.
09-20-2022, 08:21 AM
#865
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,238
If one stroke of the presidential pen can shift hundreds of billions in student debt burden, it can do the same with retirement. The scariest part about student loan forgiveness isn't the potential trillion dollar cost, it is the normalization of shifting personal financial responsibility to anyone with more personal financial ability.
It's not a stretch to imagine a Fairly Applied Retirement Threshold Act that would remove half of your retirement account value above one million and transfer it to the "needy".
It's not a stretch to imagine a Fairly Applied Retirement Threshold Act that would remove half of your retirement account value above one million and transfer it to the "needy".
09-20-2022, 08:28 AM
#866
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Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,303
It's not "fear porn". Real proposals such as this exist. Asset taxes, etc.
I hope your right that it never takes place, but making ROTH gains taxable wouldn't surprise me as an interim step. It would surely be taxiing the "rich" and popular among the vast amounts of electorate who don't have any ROTH IRA's.
Oh as interest rates rise, more and more of the federal budget will be devoured just paying interest on current debt. Pretty soon all other spending will be less and less significant % of budget and revenue streams will have to be created to keep making the credit card minimum payments.
Someone's gotta pay Dr Fauci's pension....
I hope your right that it never takes place, but making ROTH gains taxable wouldn't surprise me as an interim step. It would surely be taxiing the "rich" and popular among the vast amounts of electorate who don't have any ROTH IRA's.
Oh as interest rates rise, more and more of the federal budget will be devoured just paying interest on current debt. Pretty soon all other spending will be less and less significant % of budget and revenue streams will have to be created to keep making the credit card minimum payments.
Someone's gotta pay Dr Fauci's pension....
09-20-2022, 08:32 AM
#867
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,118
False equivalency. Nationalizing 401ks is something that IMO would never be discussed unless we saw true economic collapse. Many of these politicians themselves have Roth IRAs. They proposed to remove the backdoor Roth loophole. That never made it through either. I wonder why (sarcasm). Point is, there’s a lot of fear porn out there, and then there’s reality. Things would have to get extremely ugly before some of these things happened. It’s just my take, I enjoy hearing optimistic and pessimistic views and then I make my own conclusion which is still always open for revision.
If you were to tell people in 2019 about all of the messed up things that the government did in reaction to COVID, they would have laughed and called it fear porn.
The fact of the matter is we are definitely on the road to democrats seizing private retirement accounts to fund their utopian/dystopian goals, and all it will take is another "big event" and "economic crisis" for them to find the leverage they need to do it.
09-20-2022, 09:45 AM
#868
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Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,788
And it has cost hundreds of millions trillions of dollars in retirement wealth. Look at the amount put in vs what is paid out, and then factor in market rates of returns for that money over the same period. Yeah, it's a scam that hurts people. And as one of the other posters mentioned it also creates a moral hazard by incentivizing people NOT to save, invest, and/or plan for retirement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard
09-20-2022, 09:48 AM
#869
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Posts: 1,891
And it has cost hundreds of millions trillions of dollars in retirement wealth. Look at the amount put in vs what is paid out, and then factor in market rates of returns for that money over the same period. Yeah, it's a scam that hurts people. And as one of the other posters mentioned it also creates a moral hazard by incentivizing people NOT to save, invest, and/or plan for retirement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard
Cradle to grave baby.......
09-20-2022, 09:50 AM
#870
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Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,788
You are so close to the answer, you need to take one step back to see it. Imagine sitting in the JS rather than a control seat for a view of the entire picture. As one of Carnegie's 90% example, I can assure you political connections are not necessy. Just align your financial interest with the federal government and central banks by owning income producing real estate with fixed rate debt. A loan is your political connection to the Cantillon effect.
3% increase on a million dollar asset is $30,000. That represents a 12% gain on $250,000 of equity, while the loan balance gets paid down with inflated dollars. Cash flow from operations increases with inflation, while interest expense remains the same or decreases with amortization of principle. After 5-7 years in the above example you can refinance to a new loan, take equity out with no tax and buy a second property. Lather, rinse repeat indefinitely.
The price you pay is capital gains tax. It is how the government collects "their fair share" of inflation. Your million dollar asset has grown by $30,000 on paper, but $ in adjusted value. You will pay $6000 in CG tax on the inflation..
I can tell you from personal experience with over 50 examples that this is exactly how the majority of millionaires create wealth.
3% increase on a million dollar asset is $30,000. That represents a 12% gain on $250,000 of equity, while the loan balance gets paid down with inflated dollars. Cash flow from operations increases with inflation, while interest expense remains the same or decreases with amortization of principle. After 5-7 years in the above example you can refinance to a new loan, take equity out with no tax and buy a second property. Lather, rinse repeat indefinitely.
The price you pay is capital gains tax. It is how the government collects "their fair share" of inflation. Your million dollar asset has grown by $30,000 on paper, but $ in adjusted value. You will pay $6000 in CG tax on the inflation..
I can tell you from personal experience with over 50 examples that this is exactly how the majority of millionaires create wealth.
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