5 year Market Outlook opinions
07-14-2022, 11:40 AM
#801
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Posts: 2,283
"With 9.1% inflation if your portfolio makes less than 12% per year, the IRS takes 100% of your real dollar returns" - the interwebs.
Presumably for taxable investments. Something to aim for, anyway.
Presumably for taxable investments. Something to aim for, anyway.
08-15-2022, 06:26 PM
#802
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Position: :)
Posts: 464
Ok, counter argument. MRO is upstream and they are down 28% from their highs. CVX -19%, XOM -18%, VDE -21%...
Perhaps the end of the Russian conflict is closer than it seems?
Seriously curious, would love to buy back my 2022 go to's, but need a good solid feel on that.
Perhaps the end of the Russian conflict is closer than it seems?
Seriously curious, would love to buy back my 2022 go to's, but need a good solid feel on that.
No idea where to ride next. Back to 2021 highs? Depression as most of these hedge funds believe. No idea. Just know the world is still heavy tech.
08-16-2022, 01:40 AM
#803
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,601
I got this wrong. We aren't near the end of the conflict, but Russia has flooded the Indian and Chinese market with so much cheap oil that its pulled down futures across the globe. I am happy I never re-entered, thankful for my big tech companies and chip plays.
No idea where to ride next. Back to 2021 highs? Depression as most of these hedge funds believe. No idea. Just know the world is still heavy tech.
No idea where to ride next. Back to 2021 highs? Depression as most of these hedge funds believe. No idea. Just know the world is still heavy tech.
08-26-2022, 10:09 AM
#804
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Want to beat inflation? Look no further than energy stocks, particularly Small Cap Oil, Natural Gas and Coal equities
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08-26-2022, 10:54 AM
#805
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 3,238
Revisit #1. $BTU is over $28 and still plenty of room to run. My worse case Fair value is $45. Stock will likely run above $50 once majority of debt paid of and return of capital (buybacks/dividends) instituted.
Want to beat inflation? Look no further than energy stocks, particularly Small Cap Oil, Natural Gas and Coal equities
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
Want to beat inflation? Look no further than energy stocks, particularly Small Cap Oil, Natural Gas and Coal equities
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
08-26-2022, 12:01 PM
#807
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Indeed. Price Matters. I reckon at the beginning of that time period those Oil Companies were valued like road kill as they are today. When you buy cast away companies(in this case mostly due to ESG concerns) for 2 or 3 times earnings then sell them when the market wakes up and will pay 15x peak cycle earnings you're bound to do very well. BTU, for example, can be purchased right now for $3.7B in Enterprise Value, while on track to cashflow well in excess of $1 Billion dollars off surging coal price tailwinds. Overall, any period can be cherry-picked when you purchase at rock bottom multiples relative to cashflow. Price matters. Ask the Growth investors
08-26-2022, 12:14 PM
#808
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Position: A350 Both
Posts: 7,292
Powell speaks.... and Down Goes Frazier.
The Biden disaster keeps getting better
The Biden disaster keeps getting better
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