5 year Market Outlook opinions
06-24-2022, 04:21 AM
#781
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
Bubble? BTU’s Enterprise value is $3.4B. At current coal prices BTU is projected to make $1.75B. BTU is trading at less than 2x earnings. With demand for coal skyrocketing and no supply increases in sight for years. In this past era where companies like TSLA, PLTN, SHOP, GME, AMC etc trade or traded for ludicrously high (50x+) multiples surely you can’t be serious when you say energy is in a bubble. If BTU hits $80 I might send a post agreeing with you from a yacht off the Almafi Coast
Trip of the past would post something like this to the comment above and say “you’re at the delusion stage”
https://twitter.com/SumZero/status/1356693429758136320?s=20&t=75H9_evVYYZFfiVPqjczVQ
disclaimer; I don’t actually know, it’s just fun to recycle your material. It would be legendary if you actually sent us a picture from your yacht paid for with BTU leaps.
Last edited by mispoken; 06-24-2022 at 04:46 AM.
06-24-2022, 05:56 AM
#782
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,057
There is a world of difference between the officer who carries the football being assassinated, and a former officer who used to carry the football dying for whatever reason. Nothing special about being a former nuke football guy, it's just a fairly boring military staff assignment.
06-24-2022, 06:09 AM
#783
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
If BTU goes to $80 then oil hit $500 per barrel, and coal $5000/ton which means I’ll be unemployed. I’ll work for food and shelter, so if you need someone to clean the toilets on your yacht, keep me in mind.
Trip of the past would post something like this to the comment above and say “you’re at the delusion stage”
https://twitter.com/SumZero/status/1...YYZFfiVPqjczVQ
disclaimer; I don’t actually know, it’s just fun to recycle your material. It would be legendary if you actually sent us a picture from your yacht paid for with BTU leaps.
Trip of the past would post something like this to the comment above and say “you’re at the delusion stage”
https://twitter.com/SumZero/status/1...YYZFfiVPqjczVQ
disclaimer; I don’t actually know, it’s just fun to recycle your material. It would be legendary if you actually sent us a picture from your yacht paid for with BTU leaps.
If seaborne coal stays at $400+/ton over the long term then $80+ might be justified. Coal at $5000 a ton suggest a share price of $900+
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
06-24-2022, 06:12 AM
#784
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,057
You may have just jinxed us.
This guy claims google accidentally created a self-aware AI
https://www.newsnationnow.com/banfie...m-is-sentient/
To say that I have a very healthy dose of skepticism is gross understatement.
This guy claims google accidentally created a self-aware AI
https://www.newsnationnow.com/banfie...m-is-sentient/
To say that I have a very healthy dose of skepticism is gross understatement.
06-27-2022, 04:15 PM
#785
Banned
Joined APC: May 2022
Posts: 411
That's pretty close to what I have currently. 1/3 emerging markets and 1/3 in S&P funds. Only thinking about doing this for that piece. Agree that valuations are sky high. Been aggressive and long-viewed my entire life and it's served me well. Struggling with transitioning that mindset now that I'm getting close. 5% expected return the next 10 years the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Basically its a bet between slow growth or a volatile correction. Maybe some good medium risk municipal bonds. Lot of borrowing to shore up budgets.
07-01-2022, 07:58 AM
#787
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
All fine and well; your theory is that energy prices will remain elevated for some time. You can’t really know for certain. Your assumptions are reasonable but only time will tell.
My main point was that you said if you look at the fundamentals of energy companies, this is where you will find that energy prices will remain elevated. I don’t think that’s what you mean. I must say, your statement that energy companies are “free money” is pretty dramatic, even for you. The price of energy companies is the price of energy companies. That’s what the market has decided. Maybe the next couple years the market will see nice quarterly numbers and they’ll continue an upward trend in stock price, but maybe not.
My other point was that energy is in a bubble and it will come crashing down.
And that BTU was $1.05 2 years ago.
My main point was that you said if you look at the fundamentals of energy companies, this is where you will find that energy prices will remain elevated. I don’t think that’s what you mean. I must say, your statement that energy companies are “free money” is pretty dramatic, even for you. The price of energy companies is the price of energy companies. That’s what the market has decided. Maybe the next couple years the market will see nice quarterly numbers and they’ll continue an upward trend in stock price, but maybe not.
My other point was that energy is in a bubble and it will come crashing down.
And that BTU was $1.05 2 years ago.
401K(Time Weighted)
- 13.2% YTD
- -10.33% 1 yr
- 16.49% YTD
- -18.61% 1 yr
Last edited by Trip7; 07-01-2022 at 08:13 AM.
07-01-2022, 12:01 PM
#788
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/07/01/...hdrawals-.html
07-04-2022, 08:23 PM
#789
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
PF Numbers after 1 year in....
Here are the headline clickbait numbers....
From June 2021 to June 2022 -49%
YTD -47%
Annualized from 1/1/2016-6/30/2022
+13.6% which oddly enough is identical to the S&P's perf for the same exact time period.
My purpose in tracking the performance like I do Is to make sure I'm not spinning my wheels and just averaging the market over time. For now I am. I've also underperformed and outperformed it. My goal is to beat the average of the S&P by 3-5%. Something in the realm of 16-18% annualized over long periods of time can really boost the PF vs averaging the market. So despite the carnage, I'm very average at the moment. So I've got that going for me. But, yeah.....rough plunge in the PF for the last 12 months, for sure. Not helping is that as the years have gone on (especially the last 5 or so years) earnings have gone up significantly and so have investments as a % of the portfolio. That newer money in larger chunks can make or break a PF in the short term. This should smooth out over greater periods of time. At least, that's the theory. That being said, my time weighted return for 5 years is 15.52% annualized vs S&P TWR of 12.96%. So, many ways to skin this cat, I'll just keep with my simple XIRR.
No significant changes made, the program continues. I added to all of my favorites; MELI, SHOP, TQQQ, TSLA, UPST etc. Only time will tell!
Here are the headline clickbait numbers....
From June 2021 to June 2022 -49%
YTD -47%
Annualized from 1/1/2016-6/30/2022
+13.6% which oddly enough is identical to the S&P's perf for the same exact time period.
My purpose in tracking the performance like I do Is to make sure I'm not spinning my wheels and just averaging the market over time. For now I am. I've also underperformed and outperformed it. My goal is to beat the average of the S&P by 3-5%. Something in the realm of 16-18% annualized over long periods of time can really boost the PF vs averaging the market. So despite the carnage, I'm very average at the moment. So I've got that going for me. But, yeah.....rough plunge in the PF for the last 12 months, for sure. Not helping is that as the years have gone on (especially the last 5 or so years) earnings have gone up significantly and so have investments as a % of the portfolio. That newer money in larger chunks can make or break a PF in the short term. This should smooth out over greater periods of time. At least, that's the theory. That being said, my time weighted return for 5 years is 15.52% annualized vs S&P TWR of 12.96%. So, many ways to skin this cat, I'll just keep with my simple XIRR.
No significant changes made, the program continues. I added to all of my favorites; MELI, SHOP, TQQQ, TSLA, UPST etc. Only time will tell!
Last edited by mispoken; 07-04-2022 at 08:48 PM.
07-06-2022, 06:49 AM
#790
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Position: :)
Posts: 464
The BTC is down 33% since it was last discussed on this thread.
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