5 year Market Outlook opinions
#671
They don't care at all about a conventional land invasion. EU is a paper tiger, China is too plus they'd never invade them anyway and the US would go Ch 7 quickly if we even attempted an unwinnable blunder as stupid as that.
I don't think its so much territorial restoration for the reasons you mentioned, but a combination of egotistical manifest destiny...he fancies himself a modern day Alexander the Great (among others)...and an socio-economical desire to protect that he (and many in his country) see as their countrymen as well as getting control of any additional amount of food or energy materials and infrastructure.
He very well may think that but he'd be wrong. The clear military blunders he made were the direct result of the long obsolete military-industrial/war college insanity that still thinks old school armor and artillery is how future wars will be won. All they are in reality are nation/economy busting, resource draining, supply chain and logistics nightmares that only serve to present extremely expensive and comically easy targets to be busted by asymmetrically cheaper opposition. Gary Heart of all people tried to warn us of this nonsense decades ago but also warned that its an expensive, obsolete paradigm that will take a very long time and die very hard.
I don't think so. This is just another big statist war machine version of the "domino theory" that tried to justify the insanity of the US going into Viet Nam and even WWI. There is zero danger of him trying to roll tanks into (actual) Europe and "taking over the world" and even if there was such a danger (which there isn't) why aren't the imbeciles in Europe who have been leeching off our military for 3+ generations finally capable of defending themselves from a significantly depleted obsolete conventional force that one ill equipped nation is giving them an extremely hard time with?
There's zero chance either could defeat the other and still have a standing economy. And even if we "won" we'd lose as threatening to take over their nation with a Western dominating victory (even if achievable which it isn't) would push them deep into the envelope where people in bunkers or subs would be turning keys.
Right. And likewise if we threaten to "defeat" them and back them into a corner.
Again, disagree. There is no credible "domino theory" at play here. Moving toy tank and artillery pieces around on a WWII style map is played out nonsense. No one is on the verge of taking over the world here. Both economies are fragile, but every move we're making is ultimately weakening the vulnerable petro-dollar we've desperately become dependent upon for our very existence.
Good times make weak societies and we've had it ridiculously good for a long time and have gotten very arrogant, ungrateful, soft, hyper dependent and entitled about it.
I don't think its so much territorial restoration for the reasons you mentioned, but a combination of egotistical manifest destiny...he fancies himself a modern day Alexander the Great (among others)...and an socio-economical desire to protect that he (and many in his country) see as their countrymen as well as getting control of any additional amount of food or energy materials and infrastructure.
He very well may think that but he'd be wrong. The clear military blunders he made were the direct result of the long obsolete military-industrial/war college insanity that still thinks old school armor and artillery is how future wars will be won. All they are in reality are nation/economy busting, resource draining, supply chain and logistics nightmares that only serve to present extremely expensive and comically easy targets to be busted by asymmetrically cheaper opposition. Gary Heart of all people tried to warn us of this nonsense decades ago but also warned that its an expensive, obsolete paradigm that will take a very long time and die very hard.
I don't think so. This is just another big statist war machine version of the "domino theory" that tried to justify the insanity of the US going into Viet Nam and even WWI. There is zero danger of him trying to roll tanks into (actual) Europe and "taking over the world" and even if there was such a danger (which there isn't) why aren't the imbeciles in Europe who have been leeching off our military for 3+ generations finally capable of defending themselves from a significantly depleted obsolete conventional force that one ill equipped nation is giving them an extremely hard time with?
There's zero chance either could defeat the other and still have a standing economy. And even if we "won" we'd lose as threatening to take over their nation with a Western dominating victory (even if achievable which it isn't) would push them deep into the envelope where people in bunkers or subs would be turning keys.
Right. And likewise if we threaten to "defeat" them and back them into a corner.
Again, disagree. There is no credible "domino theory" at play here. Moving toy tank and artillery pieces around on a WWII style map is played out nonsense. No one is on the verge of taking over the world here. Both economies are fragile, but every move we're making is ultimately weakening the vulnerable petro-dollar we've desperately become dependent upon for our very existence.
Good times make weak societies and we've had it ridiculously good for a long time and have gotten very arrogant, ungrateful, soft, hyper dependent and entitled about it.
#676
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
As much as it will pain me to post my 12 month results, I believe the updates happen at the end of June. Most of the blood in the streets will be from yours truly and it ain’t from crypto. It’s gonna be a loooooooong climb back to the top for me!
#677
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,303
It looks like #1 is in play.
Most countries in the EU are willing to carve up Ukraine vs hold a line in the sand. If so, expect Russian oil back on the market, cruise and airline stocks to soar. China still an unknown, but the US is increasingly stepping back from direct military conflict with China over Taiwan, adopting an approach more like they did in Ukraine.
This explains the bearishness on oil. I am always amazed how traders stay ahead of official US policy shifts.
https://rmx.news/european-union/publ...ussian-defeat/
Most countries in the EU are willing to carve up Ukraine vs hold a line in the sand. If so, expect Russian oil back on the market, cruise and airline stocks to soar. China still an unknown, but the US is increasingly stepping back from direct military conflict with China over Taiwan, adopting an approach more like they did in Ukraine.
This explains the bearishness on oil. I am always amazed how traders stay ahead of official US policy shifts.
https://rmx.news/european-union/publ...ussian-defeat/
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000566996643
#678
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
#680
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,768
It doesn’t sound like Washington wants anything more than a continuous war. Why else would we send 80 billion after sending 40 billion? We don’t even have any clue where this money went but it got spent(Listen to Krystal and Sagaar’s Breaking Points). Europe is in shambles and despite what the media reports the Russians have been kicking butt and taking names. They are taking all of eastern Ukraine - end of story. Do you think our war-mongering overlords are going to accept that? Everything our government touches turns to ruin. The Russia Ruble is doing great and their main export, oil, is at an all time high. Good plan we worked out over there…
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000566996643
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000566996643
trump gets re elected or even desantis, i would bet we are done with this crap in 60 days and ukraine sues for peace or holds what theyve got. Either way, i dont think this is our circus.
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