5 year Market Outlook opinions
05-19-2022, 10:03 AM
#601
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Hard Lessons the Market drop is teaching:
Don't invest using borrowed money.
Never pay too much for the prospect of future profits.
Never count on greater fools to bail you out of reckless risks.
Above all, your results depend much less on how markets behave than on how you behave.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
Don't invest using borrowed money.
Never pay too much for the prospect of future profits.
Never count on greater fools to bail you out of reckless risks.
Above all, your results depend much less on how markets behave than on how you behave.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
05-19-2022, 10:26 AM
#602
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,456
Hard Lessons the Market drop is teaching:
Don't invest using borrowed money.
Never pay too much for the prospect of future profits.
Never count on greater fools to bail you out of reckless risks.
Above all, your results depend much less on how markets behave than on how you behave.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
Don't invest using borrowed money.
Never pay too much for the prospect of future profits.
Never count on greater fools to bail you out of reckless risks.
Above all, your results depend much less on how markets behave than on how you behave.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
Last edited by notEnuf; 05-19-2022 at 11:02 AM.
05-19-2022, 10:46 AM
#603
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
Hard Lessons the Market drop is teaching:
Don't invest using borrowed money.
Never pay too much for the prospect of future profits.
Never count on greater fools to bail you out of reckless risks.
Above all, your results depend much less on how markets behave than on how you behave.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
Don't invest using borrowed money.
Never pay too much for the prospect of future profits.
Never count on greater fools to bail you out of reckless risks.
Above all, your results depend much less on how markets behave than on how you behave.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
To his point, I often wonder what people would think of RE investing if there was a second by second valuation scrolling across their screens telling them the value of their home and investment properties.
This year will be certainly a good one to lower one’s cost basis assuming the intestinal fortitude exists to stay invested (easier said than done)! I think a decade from now this could be viewed as a gift. Then again maybe not since #nobodyknowsanything
05-19-2022, 11:22 AM
#604
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
The Ben G quote rings very true, but I don’t think your personal bullet points are remotely related to what he is saying. In fact, I think what you’re saying is the exact opposite of what he’s saying, but maybe it’s just lost in translation. The one exception is your last point, totally agree there.
To his point, I often wonder what people would think of RE investing if there was a second by second valuation scrolling across their screens telling them the value of their home and investment properties.
This year will be certainly a good one to lower one’s cost basis assuming the intestinal fortitude exists to stay invested (easier said than done)! I think a decade from now this could be viewed as a gift. Then again maybe not since #nobodyknowsanything
To his point, I often wonder what people would think of RE investing if there was a second by second valuation scrolling across their screens telling them the value of their home and investment properties.
This year will be certainly a good one to lower one’s cost basis assuming the intestinal fortitude exists to stay invested (easier said than done)! I think a decade from now this could be viewed as a gift. Then again maybe not since #nobodyknowsanything
Screenshot_20220519-131718_Gmail.jpg
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05-19-2022, 11:25 AM
#605
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,616
To his point, I often wonder what people would think of RE investing if there was a second by second valuation scrolling across their screens telling them the value of their home and investment properties.
This year will be certainly a good one to lower one’s cost basis assuming the intestinal fortitude exists to stay invested (easier said than done)! I think a decade from now this could be viewed as a gift. Then again maybe not since #nobodyknowsanything
This year will be certainly a good one to lower one’s cost basis assuming the intestinal fortitude exists to stay invested (easier said than done)! I think a decade from now this could be viewed as a gift. Then again maybe not since #nobodyknowsanything
Your last point is a great reminder that now may be a good time for a ROTH conversion at depressed values.
PSA - You can purchase up to 10K of I bonds via Treasury Direct for a 9% government guaranteed 1 year return.
*DYODD, YMMV, objects in the rear view mirror are closing fast if drive a Miata.
05-19-2022, 11:47 AM
#606
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Position: :)
Posts: 464
After last summer I slowly starting dumping growth stocks as the Fed ratcheted up talks about QT and raising the prime rate. I missed the high by about 2% or so, however, I was early to energy. I eventually found myself heavily lopsided towards energy stocks, buying more every time they fell back over concerns about releases from the SPR. With investments into exploration at all time lows and the current ESG push, I knew there was a strong possibility of a shortage. Then Ukraine, then more releases, now more talk of shortages. Up 38% YOY. I have recovered my costs entering energy and I am sitting on too much cash.
There are great companies with PE <10, strong balance sheets, consistent growth, that pay a dividend and rank really low on the probability of bankruptcy. I have been easing into some of these the past two days and starting to second guess myself. Fox News, the world is ending because of democrats; MSNBC, if you are a long investor there are incredibly buys out there at 70% discounts, if you are long does it matter. Otherwise stay in cash. No one knows.
I believe they ways of old will return when the bottom half of society starts to get crushed by a service economy that has abandoned modern monetary theory. If the world gets stratified into BRICS and SWIFT, I could see the United States with its vast resources and land switching back to a manufacturing powerhouse like Germany over the past decade. We are way behind on that strategy, I am guessing a more dovish response down the road from the Fed as an interim play (2023-2024).
I wouldn't touch RE or builders for awhile. During 2008 rents dropped 30% and vacancies exploded. As people lost jobs they started to rent our rooms which further creates pressure on RE.
I think it'll be a rough ride after summer, best wishes to everyone and their strategies.
There are great companies with PE <10, strong balance sheets, consistent growth, that pay a dividend and rank really low on the probability of bankruptcy. I have been easing into some of these the past two days and starting to second guess myself. Fox News, the world is ending because of democrats; MSNBC, if you are a long investor there are incredibly buys out there at 70% discounts, if you are long does it matter. Otherwise stay in cash. No one knows.
I believe they ways of old will return when the bottom half of society starts to get crushed by a service economy that has abandoned modern monetary theory. If the world gets stratified into BRICS and SWIFT, I could see the United States with its vast resources and land switching back to a manufacturing powerhouse like Germany over the past decade. We are way behind on that strategy, I am guessing a more dovish response down the road from the Fed as an interim play (2023-2024).
I wouldn't touch RE or builders for awhile. During 2008 rents dropped 30% and vacancies exploded. As people lost jobs they started to rent our rooms which further creates pressure on RE.
I think it'll be a rough ride after summer, best wishes to everyone and their strategies.
05-19-2022, 12:16 PM
#607
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
After last summer I slowly starting dumping growth stocks as the Fed ratcheted up talks about QT and raising the prime rate. I missed the high by about 2% or so, however, I was early to energy. I eventually found myself heavily lopsided towards energy stocks, buying more every time they fell back over concerns about releases from the SPR. With investments into exploration at all time lows and the current ESG push, I knew there was a strong possibility of a shortage. Then Ukraine, then more releases, now more talk of shortages. Up 38% YOY. I have recovered my costs entering energy and I am sitting on too much cash.
There are great companies with PE <10, strong balance sheets, consistent growth, that pay a dividend and rank really low on the probability of bankruptcy. I have been easing into some of these the past two days and starting to second guess myself. Fox News, the world is ending because of democrats; MSNBC, if you are a long investor there are incredibly buys out there at 70% discounts, if you are long does it matter. Otherwise stay in cash. No one knows.
I believe they ways of old will return when the bottom half of society starts to get crushed by a service economy that has abandoned modern monetary theory. If the world gets stratified into BRICS and SWIFT, I could see the United States with its vast resources and land switching back to a manufacturing powerhouse like Germany over the past decade. We are way behind on that strategy, I am guessing a more dovish response down the road from the Fed as an interim play (2023-2024).
I wouldn't touch RE or builders for awhile. During 2008 rents dropped 30% and vacancies exploded. As people lost jobs they started to rent our rooms which further creates pressure on RE.
I think it'll be a rough ride after summer, best wishes to everyone and their strategies.
There are great companies with PE <10, strong balance sheets, consistent growth, that pay a dividend and rank really low on the probability of bankruptcy. I have been easing into some of these the past two days and starting to second guess myself. Fox News, the world is ending because of democrats; MSNBC, if you are a long investor there are incredibly buys out there at 70% discounts, if you are long does it matter. Otherwise stay in cash. No one knows.
I believe they ways of old will return when the bottom half of society starts to get crushed by a service economy that has abandoned modern monetary theory. If the world gets stratified into BRICS and SWIFT, I could see the United States with its vast resources and land switching back to a manufacturing powerhouse like Germany over the past decade. We are way behind on that strategy, I am guessing a more dovish response down the road from the Fed as an interim play (2023-2024).
I wouldn't touch RE or builders for awhile. During 2008 rents dropped 30% and vacancies exploded. As people lost jobs they started to rent our rooms which further creates pressure on RE.
I think it'll be a rough ride after summer, best wishes to everyone and their strategies.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
05-19-2022, 12:26 PM
#608
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
You completely nailed one of my favorite aspects of CRE investing. I get a price quote at purchase, refinance and sale. Anything else is just mental gymnastics that sucks time away from hobbies and vacations. I have no idea what my real estate values did this week, but I've been mountain biking 5 of the last 5 days. I'll check in on the 1st for rent collections and reconcile my bank accounts.
Your last point is a great reminder that now may be a good time for a ROTH conversion at depressed values.
PSA - You can purchase up to 10K of I bonds via Treasury Direct for a 9% government guaranteed 1 year return.
*DYODD, YMMV, objects in the rear view mirror are closing fast if drive a Miata.
Your last point is a great reminder that now may be a good time for a ROTH conversion at depressed values.
PSA - You can purchase up to 10K of I bonds via Treasury Direct for a 9% government guaranteed 1 year return.
*DYODD, YMMV, objects in the rear view mirror are closing fast if drive a Miata.
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
05-19-2022, 12:40 PM
#609
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Position: :)
Posts: 464
Well done on the Growth to Energy trade. Extremely well done. I started buying energy a couple years ago at insanely low valuations and while prices have come up considerably the sector overall is still trading cheaply relative to cashflows. Furthermore cashflow guidance keeps increasing as energy prices continue to rise. Right now I'm buying nothing but energy even though my Taxable Brokerage portfolio is 80%+ Energy. When I see very high upside combined with minimal to no downside I tend to go all in.
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05-19-2022, 12:49 PM
#610
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Keep following Free Cashflows and you'll do very well. IMO Energy right now is the surest bet. Then Shipping but demand on E commerce could change quickly with inflation. Next would be China Tech but not for the faint of heart with Political noise.
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