5 year Market Outlook opinions
#571
Farmland investing has been a peripheral interest for several years and I'd love to learn more. Do you do direct acquisition of farm land or buy via syndications like Acre Trader? If direct acquisition, how do you handle the management?
#572
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 295
what i can tell you…after taxes…farm land doesn’t cash flow well in the near term - the market is pretty efficient that way. You gotta be careful on your leverage as well…obviously harvests vary with weather and commodity prices year to year. However, it has appreciated…like everything else when money is easy to borrow…it’s crazy now. Midwest, per acre, around 13.5K. It’s the same type reasoning as alot of prime real estate…limited supply…and the demand will always be there for food.
warren buffet, gates, etc…they’ve bought alot of land. The older I get, the more I appreciate the value…across generations.
PM me your questions. I’ll run them by my dad…he’s forgotten more about farming than I’ll ever know…and he is a farm accountant in retirement…so he has some ag business insight I don’t know.
#573
this is almost impossible to answer via the web. I was a BTC naysayer as well….then i started studying. I consider everything outside BTC horse crap…with that…
-everything in my lifetime has digitized
-every fiat currency that has ever existed has failed
-every dynasty has failed, with their currency, in somewhat of a pattern. Read Dalio’s empire book.
-when you study what humans have put value into, since the beginning of time, those “currencies” had defining features…some with limitations humans couldn’t avoid. Off the top of my head - value was stored in something that was limited and hard to find, could be verified, could be transported, couldn’t be corrupted, easily divisible for small exchange. Gold has been viewed by many has meeting most of the criteria well…with some issues…the biggest bring divisibly and transportation.
Bitcoin : limited to 21 million coins…19 already mined. Each BTC divisible by 100,000,000. Not controlled by any government. Transportable…all you need is an internet connection. Public ledger. Very difficult to create more….etc, etc.
.
-everything in my lifetime has digitized
-every fiat currency that has ever existed has failed
-every dynasty has failed, with their currency, in somewhat of a pattern. Read Dalio’s empire book.
-when you study what humans have put value into, since the beginning of time, those “currencies” had defining features…some with limitations humans couldn’t avoid. Off the top of my head - value was stored in something that was limited and hard to find, could be verified, could be transported, couldn’t be corrupted, easily divisible for small exchange. Gold has been viewed by many has meeting most of the criteria well…with some issues…the biggest bring divisibly and transportation.
Bitcoin : limited to 21 million coins…19 already mined. Each BTC divisible by 100,000,000. Not controlled by any government. Transportable…all you need is an internet connection. Public ledger. Very difficult to create more….etc, etc.
.
But my issues with crypto currency is based a bit in your answer. While I agree that fiat currency has failed throughout history I’m not sure I’d agree that all will. The British Pound has survived for 500ish years. Has it changed, lost its place at the top, sure. But people will still trade it for stuff and services. Currency is actually about trust. The currency is the confidence in the economic system behind it. The reason the dollar is where it is in the world economy is that everyone can agree on the American economy to continue to be productive. And do so in the foreseeable future, to the point that they can give us the dollar back and get something in return.
The nature of crypto currency is the exact opposite at this point. By having multiple types of uncontrollable currencies, how can there be trust? Having a government back a currency is useful since the currency will always have value to at least its citizens since they can pay their taxes with the currency. If a crypto currency becomes untrusted, maybe via a hack or loss of block chain storage, I can’t give them away to anyone.
The requirement of internet connection is a major issue with a currency. Even a digitized economy has use for hard currency. Bringing back your point of human nature, if I can’t see or feel what I’m trading with there’s always a sense of doubt. Not to mention the opportunity for gaps in security. If the digital age has taught us anything, nothing truly is secure if it’s not completely closed circuit.
To me that’s why I have a hard time seeing a value in crypto. Is it a speculative investment in a limited commodity, sure, but so is art. It has a value, it’s just doesn’t check the marks of a truly trade able currency.
#575
this is almost impossible to answer via the web. I was a BTC naysayer as well….then i started studying. I consider everything outside BTC horse crap…with that…
-everything in my lifetime has digitized
-every fiat currency that has ever existed has failed
-every dynasty has failed, with their currency, in somewhat of a pattern. Read Dalio’s empire book.
-when you study what humans have put value into, since the beginning of time, those “currencies” had defining features…some with limitations humans couldn’t avoid. Off the top of my head - value was stored in something that was limited and hard to find, could be verified, could be transported, couldn’t be corrupted, easily divisible for small exchange. Gold has been viewed by many has meeting most of the criteria well…with some issues…the biggest bring divisibly and transportation.
Bitcoin : limited to 21 million coins…19 already mined. Each BTC divisible by 100,000,000. Not controlled by any government. Transportable…all you need is an internet connection. Public ledger. Very difficult to create more….etc, etc.
when i hear “ponzi scheme”…i know the person hasn’t studied BTC and/or has no idea the definition of a ponzi scheme.
Do I know the “value” of BTC… I guess I know the price today…but I can’t do a traditional valuation. I know it’s the hardest money ever invented and it’s up 322,000% since being created.
Would I put 100% of my portfolio into it…I wouldn’t. Is there a ton of innovation happening in the space…yes.
-everything in my lifetime has digitized
-every fiat currency that has ever existed has failed
-every dynasty has failed, with their currency, in somewhat of a pattern. Read Dalio’s empire book.
-when you study what humans have put value into, since the beginning of time, those “currencies” had defining features…some with limitations humans couldn’t avoid. Off the top of my head - value was stored in something that was limited and hard to find, could be verified, could be transported, couldn’t be corrupted, easily divisible for small exchange. Gold has been viewed by many has meeting most of the criteria well…with some issues…the biggest bring divisibly and transportation.
Bitcoin : limited to 21 million coins…19 already mined. Each BTC divisible by 100,000,000. Not controlled by any government. Transportable…all you need is an internet connection. Public ledger. Very difficult to create more….etc, etc.
when i hear “ponzi scheme”…i know the person hasn’t studied BTC and/or has no idea the definition of a ponzi scheme.
Do I know the “value” of BTC… I guess I know the price today…but I can’t do a traditional valuation. I know it’s the hardest money ever invented and it’s up 322,000% since being created.
Would I put 100% of my portfolio into it…I wouldn’t. Is there a ton of innovation happening in the space…yes.
The pound has been fiat money since 1931, long before the dollar became fiat.
#576
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 295
Thanks for giving a complex answer with reasonable arguments, an internet rarity. I can find reason in the statement that having some has some merit.
But my issues with crypto currency is based a bit in your answer. While I agree that fiat currency has failed throughout history I’m not sure I’d agree that all will. The British Pound has survived for 500ish years. Has it changed, lost its place at the top, sure. But people will still trade it for stuff and services. Currency is actually about trust. The currency is the confidence in the economic system behind it. The reason the dollar is where it is in the world economy is that everyone can agree on the American economy to continue to be productive. And do so in the foreseeable future, to the point that they can give us the dollar back and get something in return.
The nature of crypto currency is the exact opposite at this point. By having multiple types of uncontrollable currencies, how can there be trust? Having a government back a currency is useful since the currency will always have value to at least its citizens since they can pay their taxes with the currency. If a crypto currency becomes untrusted, maybe via a hack or loss of block chain storage, I can’t give them away to anyone.
The requirement of internet connection is a major issue with a currency. Even a digitized economy has use for hard currency. Bringing back your point of human nature, if I can’t see or feel what I’m trading with there’s always a sense of doubt. Not to mention the opportunity for gaps in security. If the digital age has taught us anything, nothing truly is secure if it’s not completely closed circuit.
To me that’s why I have a hard time seeing a value in crypto. Is it a speculative investment in a limited commodity, sure, but so is art. It has a value, it’s just doesn’t check the marks of a truly trade able currency.
But my issues with crypto currency is based a bit in your answer. While I agree that fiat currency has failed throughout history I’m not sure I’d agree that all will. The British Pound has survived for 500ish years. Has it changed, lost its place at the top, sure. But people will still trade it for stuff and services. Currency is actually about trust. The currency is the confidence in the economic system behind it. The reason the dollar is where it is in the world economy is that everyone can agree on the American economy to continue to be productive. And do so in the foreseeable future, to the point that they can give us the dollar back and get something in return.
The nature of crypto currency is the exact opposite at this point. By having multiple types of uncontrollable currencies, how can there be trust? Having a government back a currency is useful since the currency will always have value to at least its citizens since they can pay their taxes with the currency. If a crypto currency becomes untrusted, maybe via a hack or loss of block chain storage, I can’t give them away to anyone.
The requirement of internet connection is a major issue with a currency. Even a digitized economy has use for hard currency. Bringing back your point of human nature, if I can’t see or feel what I’m trading with there’s always a sense of doubt. Not to mention the opportunity for gaps in security. If the digital age has taught us anything, nothing truly is secure if it’s not completely closed circuit.
To me that’s why I have a hard time seeing a value in crypto. Is it a speculative investment in a limited commodity, sure, but so is art. It has a value, it’s just doesn’t check the marks of a truly trade able currency.
minor clarification(s)…
BTC is world wide. We have a different perspective, since we live in the US and “enjoy” having the dollar’s reserve currency status. Not so in a third world country where people don’t have banking. Additionally, we really screw those people via inflation and remittance costs.
You can store BTC on a piece of paper. You need an internet connection to transact it. Ukraine as an example, if you are fleeing, your currency is collapsing, all you need is that copy of your private key and your wealth is there recorded on the ledger. Once you get an internet connection you have access. Some argue you cannot stop BTC unless you stop the internet - I tend to agree. I think this is interesting considering countries with hyperinflation.
BTC block chain has never been hacked…and from my research - will never be hacked until super computing is a thing. Then all current encryption is toast…so super computing encryption will be required. All the stories of BTC being stolen isn’t from the blockchain, it’s from unreliable custodians, those people never really “owned” the BTC because they didn’t control the key(s).
#577
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
The problem with bitcoin is you need power and internet. In an event such as a real collapse of an empire and it's currency that may be an issue. Now, will it be there for you once things get better? Sure, but what about between collapse and recovery of some form.?
The pound has been fiat money since 1931, long before the dollar became fiat.
The pound has been fiat money since 1931, long before the dollar became fiat.
As for empire collapse, power and internet WRT Bitcoin, I'm not sure where you're going with that but it can (and has been) transacted via satcom and even HAM radio.
#578
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,303
Thanks for giving a complex answer with reasonable arguments, an internet rarity. I can find reason in the statement that having some has some merit.
But my issues with crypto currency is based a bit in your answer. While I agree that fiat currency has failed throughout history I’m not sure I’d agree that all will. The British Pound has survived for 500ish years. Has it changed, lost its place at the top, sure. But people will still trade it for stuff and services. Currency is actually about trust. The currency is the confidence in the economic system behind it. The reason the dollar is where it is in the world economy is that everyone can agree on the American economy to continue to be productive. And do so in the foreseeable future, to the point that they can give us the dollar back and get something in return.
The nature of crypto currency is the exact opposite at this point. By having multiple types of uncontrollable currencies, how can there be trust? Having a government back a currency is useful since the currency will always have value to at least its citizens since they can pay their taxes with the currency. If a crypto currency becomes untrusted, maybe via a hack or loss of block chain storage, I can’t give them away to anyone.
The requirement of internet connection is a major issue with a currency. Even a digitized economy has use for hard currency. Bringing back your point of human nature, if I can’t see or feel what I’m trading with there’s always a sense of doubt. Not to mention the opportunity for gaps in security. If the digital age has taught us anything, nothing truly is secure if it’s not completely closed circuit.
To me that’s why I have a hard time seeing a value in crypto. Is it a speculative investment in a limited commodity, sure, but so is art. It has a value, it’s just doesn’t check the marks of a truly trade able currency.
But my issues with crypto currency is based a bit in your answer. While I agree that fiat currency has failed throughout history I’m not sure I’d agree that all will. The British Pound has survived for 500ish years. Has it changed, lost its place at the top, sure. But people will still trade it for stuff and services. Currency is actually about trust. The currency is the confidence in the economic system behind it. The reason the dollar is where it is in the world economy is that everyone can agree on the American economy to continue to be productive. And do so in the foreseeable future, to the point that they can give us the dollar back and get something in return.
The nature of crypto currency is the exact opposite at this point. By having multiple types of uncontrollable currencies, how can there be trust? Having a government back a currency is useful since the currency will always have value to at least its citizens since they can pay their taxes with the currency. If a crypto currency becomes untrusted, maybe via a hack or loss of block chain storage, I can’t give them away to anyone.
The requirement of internet connection is a major issue with a currency. Even a digitized economy has use for hard currency. Bringing back your point of human nature, if I can’t see or feel what I’m trading with there’s always a sense of doubt. Not to mention the opportunity for gaps in security. If the digital age has taught us anything, nothing truly is secure if it’s not completely closed circuit.
To me that’s why I have a hard time seeing a value in crypto. Is it a speculative investment in a limited commodity, sure, but so is art. It has a value, it’s just doesn’t check the marks of a truly trade able currency.
#579
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,760
good stuff. I do appreciate a logical response.
minor clarification(s)…
BTC is world wide. We have a different perspective, since we live in the US and “enjoy” having the dollar’s reserve currency status. Not so in a third world country where people don’t have banking. Additionally, we really screw those people via inflation and remittance costs.
You can store BTC on a piece of paper. You need an internet connection to transact it. Ukraine as an example, if you are fleeing, your currency is collapsing, all you need is that copy of your private key and your wealth is there recorded on the ledger. Once you get an internet connection you have access. Some argue you cannot stop BTC unless you stop the internet - I tend to agree. I think this is interesting considering countries with hyperinflation.
BTC block chain has never been hacked…and from my research - will never be hacked until super computing is a thing. Then all current encryption is toast…so super computing encryption will be required. All the stories of BTC being stolen isn’t from the blockchain, it’s from unreliable custodians, those people never really “owned” the BTC because they didn’t control the key(s).
minor clarification(s)…
BTC is world wide. We have a different perspective, since we live in the US and “enjoy” having the dollar’s reserve currency status. Not so in a third world country where people don’t have banking. Additionally, we really screw those people via inflation and remittance costs.
You can store BTC on a piece of paper. You need an internet connection to transact it. Ukraine as an example, if you are fleeing, your currency is collapsing, all you need is that copy of your private key and your wealth is there recorded on the ledger. Once you get an internet connection you have access. Some argue you cannot stop BTC unless you stop the internet - I tend to agree. I think this is interesting considering countries with hyperinflation.
BTC block chain has never been hacked…and from my research - will never be hacked until super computing is a thing. Then all current encryption is toast…so super computing encryption will be required. All the stories of BTC being stolen isn’t from the blockchain, it’s from unreliable custodians, those people never really “owned” the BTC because they didn’t control the key(s).
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna7870
#580
Serious question:
If crypto block chains become “hackable”, what happens to it’s value?
If there’s a non zero chance that it’s possible, you can bank on it happening eventually.
If crypto block chains become “hackable”, what happens to it’s value?
If there’s a non zero chance that it’s possible, you can bank on it happening eventually.
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