5 year Market Outlook opinions
05-13-2022, 05:28 AM
#561
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Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 295
Just curious how you see “value” in any crypto currency? I’m actually trying to understand. We are 30-40 years into tech companies and just starting to get a hold on what value they are in the market. I know, value only has to be in the eye of the buyer but, what value is there really in any of the crypto currencies?
-everything in my lifetime has digitized
-every fiat currency that has ever existed has failed
-every dynasty has failed, with their currency, in somewhat of a pattern. Read Dalio’s empire book.
-when you study what humans have put value into, since the beginning of time, those “currencies” had defining features…some with limitations humans couldn’t avoid. Off the top of my head - value was stored in something that was limited and hard to find, could be verified, could be transported, couldn’t be corrupted, easily divisible for small exchange. Gold has been viewed by many has meeting most of the criteria well…with some issues…the biggest bring divisibly and transportation.
Bitcoin : limited to 21 million coins…19 already mined. Each BTC divisible by 100,000,000. Not controlled by any government. Transportable…all you need is an internet connection. Public ledger. Very difficult to create more….etc, etc.
when i hear “ponzi scheme”…i know the person hasn’t studied BTC and/or has no idea the definition of a ponzi scheme.
Do I know the “value” of BTC… I guess I know the price today…but I can’t do a traditional valuation. I know it’s the hardest money ever invented and it’s up 322,000% since being created.
Would I put 100% of my portfolio into it…I wouldn’t. Is there a ton of innovation happening in the space…yes.
05-13-2022, 05:42 AM
#562
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
For me I like to keep things simple when it comes to value. For each dollar I invest how much comes back to me in pure hard cash. If I buy a piece of Real Estate, for every dollar I've invested what's my income after subtracting all expenses from rent? For every $10 I invest I expect to get at least $2 back per year to reach my hurdle rate of value. I use the same approach with stock investing as an investor is buying a piece of a business not pieces of paper.
With Bitcoin you're simply buying a digital currency and hoping some other yahoo will pay you more for it where down the road. Works well for some, especially momentum traders but at the end of the day somebody will be left holding the bad
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
With Bitcoin you're simply buying a digital currency and hoping some other yahoo will pay you more for it where down the road. Works well for some, especially momentum traders but at the end of the day somebody will be left holding the bad
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
05-13-2022, 05:47 AM
#563
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 295
For me I like to keep things simple when it comes to value. For each dollar I invest how much comes back to me in pure hard cash. If I buy a piece of Real Estate, for every dollar I've invested what's my income after subtracting all expenses from rent? For every $10 I invest I expect to get at least $2 back per year to reach my hurdle rate of value. I use the same approach with stock investing as an investor is buying a piece of a business not pieces of paper.
With Bitcoin you're simply buying a digital currency and hoping some other yahoo will pay you more for it where down the road. Works well for some, especially momentum traders but at the end of the day somebody will be left holding the bad
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
With Bitcoin you're simply buying a digital currency and hoping some other yahoo will pay you more for it where down the road. Works well for some, especially momentum traders but at the end of the day somebody will be left holding the bad
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
my counter is in the big picture…your dollars will eventually be worthless. Maybe in our lifetime, maybe not, but the dollar won’t be an outlier in history…it’ll be destroyed.
similar to your take…i buy farm land.
05-13-2022, 06:05 AM
#564
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,788
For me I like to keep things simple when it comes to value. For each dollar I invest how much comes back to me in pure hard cash. If I buy a piece of Real Estate, for every dollar I've invested what's my income after subtracting all expenses from rent? For every $10 I invest I expect to get at least $2 back per year to reach my hurdle rate of value. I use the same approach with stock investing as an investor is buying a piece of a business not pieces of paper.
With Bitcoin you're simply buying a digital currency and hoping some other yahoo will pay you more for it where down the road. Works well for some, especially momentum traders but at the end of the day somebody will be left holding the bad
With Bitcoin you're simply buying a digital currency and hoping some other yahoo will pay you more for it where down the road. Works well for some, especially momentum traders but at the end of the day somebody will be left holding the bad
It is irresponsible to own zero crypto. Likewise it is irresponsible to hold only crypto. About 1-5% of one's portfolio is a wise choice. Now if you're going to speculate with money you can afford to lose, that's a different matter all together.
05-13-2022, 06:11 AM
#565
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 197
Most cryptos are crap. I’ve said 90% before but it’s more like 99%. I believe in the technology behind this one percent.
Most people think of shibu and doge when they think crypto. Or some monkey picture when they think NFT. Those people don’t understand the technology.
We are moving to a digital world. You will need certain cryptos to access parts of it.
And yes, this is way early. Because it’s early, it is volatile. It’s not like I have my whole retirement in it.
Most people think of shibu and doge when they think crypto. Or some monkey picture when they think NFT. Those people don’t understand the technology.
We are moving to a digital world. You will need certain cryptos to access parts of it.
And yes, this is way early. Because it’s early, it is volatile. It’s not like I have my whole retirement in it.
05-13-2022, 06:11 AM
#566
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,456
You're describing the difference between investing and speculating.
It is irresponsible to own zero crypto. Likewise it is irresponsible to hold only crypto. About 1-5% of one's portfolio is a wise choice. Now if you're going to speculate with money you can afford to lose, that's a different matter all together.
It is irresponsible to own zero crypto. Likewise it is irresponsible to hold only crypto. About 1-5% of one's portfolio is a wise choice. Now if you're going to speculate with money you can afford to lose, that's a different matter all together.
05-13-2022, 06:16 AM
#568
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 197
For me I like to keep things simple when it comes to value. For each dollar I invest how much comes back to me in pure hard cash. If I buy a piece of Real Estate, for every dollar I've invested what's my income after subtracting all expenses from rent? For every $10 I invest I expect to get at least $2 back per year to reach my hurdle rate of value. I use the same approach with stock investing as an investor is buying a piece of a business not pieces of paper.
With Bitcoin you're simply buying a digital currency and hoping some other yahoo will pay you more for it where down the road. Works well for some, especially momentum traders but at the end of the day somebody will be left holding the bad
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
With Bitcoin you're simply buying a digital currency and hoping some other yahoo will pay you more for it where down the road. Works well for some, especially momentum traders but at the end of the day somebody will be left holding the bad
Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
05-13-2022, 07:04 AM
#569
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,456
It's the internet, so take a deep breathe. The laughing is about the fervor for an unproven niche "currency" with little real liquidity. Once Larry David and Matt Damon started pushing this stuff to the masses at a retail premium I knew it was a joke.
05-13-2022, 07:09 AM
#570
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Joined APC: Nov 2020
Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Posts: 2,283
I truly believe that national governments, billionaire currency speculators, intelligence agency riddled cryptography security types, and garden variety hucksters like Cramer or a million youtubers all want what's best for you, the small "investor", and that they collectively will never make any unforeseeable moves that would wreck every ounce of crypto you own just to make a single penny.
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