5 year Market Outlook opinions
05-09-2022, 05:59 PM
#511
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,303
I'd rather have $300,000 worth of bitcoin. You really think that 300,000 US dollars are going to hold value more than bitcoin? You'll be lucky in 10 years if you can buy a car with that money. At the rate we are going you won't even be able to buy a Pinto. You'll likely be retiring with your Bitcoin if you hold it.
05-09-2022, 06:40 PM
#512
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,616
I'd rather have $300,000 worth of bitcoin. You really think that 300,000 US dollars are going to hold value more than bitcoin? You'll be lucky in 10 years if you can buy a car with that money. At the rate we are going you won't even be able to buy a Pinto. You'll likely be retiring with your Bitcoin if you hold it.
I'm toying around with the idea of moving some cash into crypto and staking it for income.
05-09-2022, 07:13 PM
#513
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,303
I'm not going all in but I have continuously been buying crypto since 2017. The buying power of $1 over 50 years has depreciated 86%. I'm not afraid to put a double digit percentage of my liquid worth in crypto.
05-09-2022, 07:59 PM
#514
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2021
Posts: 794
I'd rather have $300,000 worth of bitcoin. You really think that 300,000 US dollars are going to hold value more than bitcoin? You'll be lucky in 10 years if you can buy a car with that money. At the rate we are going you won't even be able to buy a Pinto. You'll likely be retiring with your Bitcoin if you hold it.
05-09-2022, 08:02 PM
#515
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,788
05-09-2022, 08:16 PM
#516
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2021
Posts: 794
No it’s not if you like the idea of buying good companies at an attractive value. It’s why I sold my Apple positions after the Fed announced plans to start unloading their balance sheet last month.
We’ll see, but if you bought Bitcoin 6 months ago to counter inflation in your cash, you’re now down over 50%.
I did not say I was intending on holding cash for decades. I’m day to day. If the market crashed tomorrow I’d probably buy company’s that print money. But for now I’ve avoided heavy loses by holding cash.
We’ll see, but if you bought Bitcoin 6 months ago to counter inflation in your cash, you’re now down over 50%.
I did not say I was intending on holding cash for decades. I’m day to day. If the market crashed tomorrow I’d probably buy company’s that print money. But for now I’ve avoided heavy loses by holding cash.
05-10-2022, 06:06 AM
#519
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,760
Trip7 Alright, here are the numbers, you read em, I'll weep! :-)
From June 6-December 31 my return was 0.54%, barely squeaked out a profit. The S&P 500 in that same time period returned 11.172%, so it was an underperformance by 10.632%
Here is a crazy a number; for that time period the peak to trough was a 60% movement. Said another way, early November it was up 40% for that time period and by early December it was down to -20%. This is the nature of my portfolio and the companies I invest in. Additionally, this is reflective of short term market volatility, not necessarily long term risk. The time period is also statistically irrelevant.
For further perspective here is how my portfolio has fared since I started keeping very detailed notes on it:
For 2021 the S&P 500 returned 24.942% if one were to reinvest dividends, my portfolio returned 3.85% an under performance of -21.09% on the year.
As always, perspective is key when investing. We can see 2021 wasn't good for me, but if I zoom out a bit I have the following numbers:
Since January 1, 2016-December 31, 2021 my portfolio has returned 26.72% ANNUALIZED. Said another way, every year for the last 5 years I have returned 26.72%. For the same time period, the S&P Has returned 18.44% which is an outperformance by +8.28% on an annual basis.
More details if you're interested; here is the list of companies I purchased using new money in the time period June 1-December 31 and their allocations. Note: The intent of this isn't to discuss the merit of each individual holding, it's valuation, it's prospects etc. It also is not advice as to which company YOU should invest in. I'm comfortable with my style of investing but this should shed a little more light as to WHY I had so much short term volatility (which is irrelevant in the long run). As time goes on, and I continue to add and these companies flourish or fail, allocations will change. This also IS NOT a representation of my overall portfolio in any way. Some of my largest and best performing holdings are not on this list at all. Summary; UPST and GLBE (my largest purchases in those 7 months) got shellacked!
ABNB 12.68%
CRWD 3.42%
DLO 1.79%
ETSY 2.58%
FVRR 3.37%
GLBE 21.98%
MNDY 8.64%
NET 6.73%
OKTA 9.8%
PATH 3.44%
PINS 0.63%
SE 0.4%
SKLZ 1.21%
TSLA 3.14%
UPST 20.20%
From June 6-December 31 my return was 0.54%, barely squeaked out a profit. The S&P 500 in that same time period returned 11.172%, so it was an underperformance by 10.632%
Here is a crazy a number; for that time period the peak to trough was a 60% movement. Said another way, early November it was up 40% for that time period and by early December it was down to -20%. This is the nature of my portfolio and the companies I invest in. Additionally, this is reflective of short term market volatility, not necessarily long term risk. The time period is also statistically irrelevant.
For further perspective here is how my portfolio has fared since I started keeping very detailed notes on it:
For 2021 the S&P 500 returned 24.942% if one were to reinvest dividends, my portfolio returned 3.85% an under performance of -21.09% on the year.
As always, perspective is key when investing. We can see 2021 wasn't good for me, but if I zoom out a bit I have the following numbers:
Since January 1, 2016-December 31, 2021 my portfolio has returned 26.72% ANNUALIZED. Said another way, every year for the last 5 years I have returned 26.72%. For the same time period, the S&P Has returned 18.44% which is an outperformance by +8.28% on an annual basis.
More details if you're interested; here is the list of companies I purchased using new money in the time period June 1-December 31 and their allocations. Note: The intent of this isn't to discuss the merit of each individual holding, it's valuation, it's prospects etc. It also is not advice as to which company YOU should invest in. I'm comfortable with my style of investing but this should shed a little more light as to WHY I had so much short term volatility (which is irrelevant in the long run). As time goes on, and I continue to add and these companies flourish or fail, allocations will change. This also IS NOT a representation of my overall portfolio in any way. Some of my largest and best performing holdings are not on this list at all. Summary; UPST and GLBE (my largest purchases in those 7 months) got shellacked!
ABNB 12.68%
CRWD 3.42%
DLO 1.79%
ETSY 2.58%
FVRR 3.37%
GLBE 21.98%
MNDY 8.64%
NET 6.73%
OKTA 9.8%
PATH 3.44%
PINS 0.63%
SE 0.4%
SKLZ 1.21%
TSLA 3.14%
UPST 20.20%
05-10-2022, 06:27 AM
#520
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
Absolutely brutal. It *WAS* a ~3% position for me 🤣 in my overall PF (basis in the low $100s). (but pretty large position since the “challenge” started in June @ greater than 20%). I keep trying to find reasons as to why it’s down 56% at the moment, all I can see is guidance. I’ll wait and see, and will most likely add. It’s going to be a long haul back to it’s ATHs though! Up like and escalator down like an elevator, as they say!
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
