5 year Market Outlook opinions
03-09-2022, 04:40 PM
#471
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,616
Rule 506(b) vs Rule 506(c) - What’s the Difference? (passiveincomemd.com)
Real Estate Education & Mentoring Group Houston, TX | Lifestyles Unlimited
Others on APC have used crowdfunding platforms and may be able to speak to the nature of those investments. The few I have looked at included fees that I prefer not to pay like acquisition or disposition fees, construction fees. Some charge annual fees based on portfolio size. Sometimes the deal sponsor may also be acting as the broker or contractor for the project. In other instances the deal sponsors take an outsized portion of the return once above a minimum "hurdle rate" also referred to as a waterfall. Some sponsors are not investing in the deal and just take an override with no skin in the game. Many are also 506(c) offerings, which allow advertising, which increases costs to the sponsor (ie fees to the investor). IMHO the 506(b) puts more money to work, because you aren't indirectly paying for advertising.
Crowdsourced deals don't require a membership fee like LU does, but some platforms charge annual management fees on top of the deal fees. IMHO the fee savings, consistent deal structure and investor friendly offerings are worth the price of entry for LU.
YMMV, DYODD
04-03-2022, 01:54 PM
#472
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Trip7 Alright, here are the numbers, you read em, I'll weep! :-)
From June 6-December 31 my return was 0.54%, barely squeaked out a profit. The S&P 500 in that same time period returned 11.172%, so it was an underperformance by 10.632%
Here is a crazy a number; for that time period the peak to trough was a 60% movement. Said another way, early November it was up 40% for that time period and by early December it was down to -20%. This is the nature of my portfolio and the companies I invest in. Additionally, this is reflective of short term market volatility, not necessarily long term risk. The time period is also statistically irrelevant.
For further perspective here is how my portfolio has fared since I started keeping very detailed notes on it:
For 2021 the S&P 500 returned 24.942% if one were to reinvest dividends, my portfolio returned 3.85% an under performance of -21.09% on the year.
As always, perspective is key when investing. We can see 2021 wasn't good for me, but if I zoom out a bit I have the following numbers:
Since January 1, 2016-December 31, 2021 my portfolio has returned 26.72% ANNUALIZED. Said another way, every year for the last 5 years I have returned 26.72%. For the same time period, the S&P Has returned 18.44% which is an outperformance by +8.28% on an annual basis.
More details if you're interested; here is the list of companies I purchased using new money in the time period June 1-December 31 and their allocations. Note: The intent of this isn't to discuss the merit of each individual holding, it's valuation, it's prospects etc. It also is not advice as to which company YOU should invest in. I'm comfortable with my style of investing but this should shed a little more light as to WHY I had so much short term volatility (which is irrelevant in the long run). As time goes on, and I continue to add and these companies flourish or fail, allocations will change. This also IS NOT a representation of my overall portfolio in any way. Some of my largest and best performing holdings are not on this list at all. Summary; UPST and GLBE (my largest purchases in those 7 months) got shellacked!
ABNB 12.68%
CRWD 3.42%
DLO 1.79%
ETSY 2.58%
FVRR 3.37%
GLBE 21.98%
MNDY 8.64%
NET 6.73%
OKTA 9.8%
PATH 3.44%
PINS 0.63%
SE 0.4%
SKLZ 1.21%
TSLA 3.14%
UPST 20.20%
From June 6-December 31 my return was 0.54%, barely squeaked out a profit. The S&P 500 in that same time period returned 11.172%, so it was an underperformance by 10.632%
Here is a crazy a number; for that time period the peak to trough was a 60% movement. Said another way, early November it was up 40% for that time period and by early December it was down to -20%. This is the nature of my portfolio and the companies I invest in. Additionally, this is reflective of short term market volatility, not necessarily long term risk. The time period is also statistically irrelevant.
For further perspective here is how my portfolio has fared since I started keeping very detailed notes on it:
For 2021 the S&P 500 returned 24.942% if one were to reinvest dividends, my portfolio returned 3.85% an under performance of -21.09% on the year.
As always, perspective is key when investing. We can see 2021 wasn't good for me, but if I zoom out a bit I have the following numbers:
Since January 1, 2016-December 31, 2021 my portfolio has returned 26.72% ANNUALIZED. Said another way, every year for the last 5 years I have returned 26.72%. For the same time period, the S&P Has returned 18.44% which is an outperformance by +8.28% on an annual basis.
More details if you're interested; here is the list of companies I purchased using new money in the time period June 1-December 31 and their allocations. Note: The intent of this isn't to discuss the merit of each individual holding, it's valuation, it's prospects etc. It also is not advice as to which company YOU should invest in. I'm comfortable with my style of investing but this should shed a little more light as to WHY I had so much short term volatility (which is irrelevant in the long run). As time goes on, and I continue to add and these companies flourish or fail, allocations will change. This also IS NOT a representation of my overall portfolio in any way. Some of my largest and best performing holdings are not on this list at all. Summary; UPST and GLBE (my largest purchases in those 7 months) got shellacked!
ABNB 12.68%
CRWD 3.42%
DLO 1.79%
ETSY 2.58%
FVRR 3.37%
GLBE 21.98%
MNDY 8.64%
NET 6.73%
OKTA 9.8%
PATH 3.44%
PINS 0.63%
SE 0.4%
SKLZ 1.21%
TSLA 3.14%
UPST 20.20%
Brokerage Account with LEAPS: +23.5% YTD
401K with all equities no options +28.8% YTD
Solid start to the year. Brokerage return hampered by selling a good amount of my BTU equity and LEAP postions for a house down payment right before BTU went on an epic run. I cried alittle. Overall strategy has shifted mostly to Energy and Commodities due to attractive risk/reward profile. Looking forward to our June update.
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04-03-2022, 07:15 PM
#473
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,616
Oh great it's time for the quarterly measuring contest. According to the ruler, my returns are both long (decade plus) and wide (across multiple assets)
-1.75% quarterly cash return on the debt free asset (don't judge, I'll get a loan at lease renewal). No meaningful appreciation until the next lease renewal bumps up the rent.
-Infinite return on the leveraged assets (cash out refi last year returned a multiple of the original investment, so 0 cash invested at this point)
-Negative cash flow on vacant land, which is expected for at least another 36 mos. 400% paper return in 18 mos based on comps and sales contract for a subdivided portion.
-Passive multifamily investment returns won't be in until the end of April. Expectations are 1.4% quarterly cash distribution. One property under contract for 80-90% gain in 29 mos. Pending cash out supplemental on another. With an average of 65% leverage, 1% appreciation (inflation) = 3% ROI
-Dividend stock payouts are trending toward another steady 1.2% quarterly payout. These were bought on margin at IBKR with a .75% annual rate.
Paper gains, loan amortization and property appreciation are fun to look at. Dividends, LP/LLC distributions and rental property cash flow provide immediate spendable cash flow. Converting the former into the latter is how you invest your way into retirement.
-1.75% quarterly cash return on the debt free asset (don't judge, I'll get a loan at lease renewal). No meaningful appreciation until the next lease renewal bumps up the rent.
-Infinite return on the leveraged assets (cash out refi last year returned a multiple of the original investment, so 0 cash invested at this point)
-Negative cash flow on vacant land, which is expected for at least another 36 mos. 400% paper return in 18 mos based on comps and sales contract for a subdivided portion.
-Passive multifamily investment returns won't be in until the end of April. Expectations are 1.4% quarterly cash distribution. One property under contract for 80-90% gain in 29 mos. Pending cash out supplemental on another. With an average of 65% leverage, 1% appreciation (inflation) = 3% ROI
-Dividend stock payouts are trending toward another steady 1.2% quarterly payout. These were bought on margin at IBKR with a .75% annual rate.
Paper gains, loan amortization and property appreciation are fun to look at. Dividends, LP/LLC distributions and rental property cash flow provide immediate spendable cash flow. Converting the former into the latter is how you invest your way into retirement.
04-03-2022, 07:19 PM
#474
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Oh great it's time for the quarterly measuring contest. According to the ruler, my returns are both long (decade plus) and wide (across multiple assets)
-1.75% quarterly cash return on the debt free asset (don't judge, I'll get a loan at lease renewal). No meaningful appreciation until the next lease renewal bumps up the rent.
-Infinite return on the leveraged assets (cash out refi last year returned a multiple of the original investment, so 0 cash invested at this point)
-Negative cash flow on vacant land, which is expected for at least another 36 mos. 400% paper return in 18 mos based on comps and sales contract for a subdivided portion.
-Passive multifamily investment returns won't be in until the end of April. Expectations are 1.4% quarterly cash distribution. One property under contract for 80-90% gain in 29 mos. Pending cash out supplemental on another. With an average of 65% leverage, 1% appreciation (inflation) = 3% ROI
-Dividend stock payouts are trending toward another steady 1.2% quarterly payout. These were bought on margin at IBKR with a .75% annual rate.
Paper gains, loan amortization and property appreciation are fun to look at. Dividends, LP/LLC distributions and rental property cash flow provide immediate spendable cash flow. Converting the former into the latter is how you invest your way into retirement.
-1.75% quarterly cash return on the debt free asset (don't judge, I'll get a loan at lease renewal). No meaningful appreciation until the next lease renewal bumps up the rent.
-Infinite return on the leveraged assets (cash out refi last year returned a multiple of the original investment, so 0 cash invested at this point)
-Negative cash flow on vacant land, which is expected for at least another 36 mos. 400% paper return in 18 mos based on comps and sales contract for a subdivided portion.
-Passive multifamily investment returns won't be in until the end of April. Expectations are 1.4% quarterly cash distribution. One property under contract for 80-90% gain in 29 mos. Pending cash out supplemental on another. With an average of 65% leverage, 1% appreciation (inflation) = 3% ROI
-Dividend stock payouts are trending toward another steady 1.2% quarterly payout. These were bought on margin at IBKR with a .75% annual rate.
Paper gains, loan amortization and property appreciation are fun to look at. Dividends, LP/LLC distributions and rental property cash flow provide immediate spendable cash flow. Converting the former into the latter is how you invest your way into retirement.
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04-03-2022, 08:19 PM
#475
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2021
Posts: 794
Also the other 55% is in an energy penny stock that could sink 50% tomorrow and nobody would bat an eye. This is a considerable amount of risk for even some side investment fund. This is the type of Retirement fund that makes it on Reddit.
Last edited by KirillTheThrill; 04-03-2022 at 08:41 PM.
04-04-2022, 03:42 AM
#476
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Nearly half your retirement portfolio are long calls? Wish you luck with that but that’s risky. You’re one small 2-3 year Recession away from half your portfolio being wiped out. Those $BABA longs calls are way out of the money. You plan on rolling them?
Also the other 55% is in an energy penny stock that could sink 50% tomorrow and nobody would bat an eye. This is a considerable amount of risk for even some side investment fund. This is the type of Retirement fund that makes it on Reddit.
Also the other 55% is in an energy penny stock that could sink 50% tomorrow and nobody would bat an eye. This is a considerable amount of risk for even some side investment fund. This is the type of Retirement fund that makes it on Reddit.
). BABA is way out of the but still plenty of time til January. Will evaluate rolling and doubling down with 2024 LEAPS in June. By my calculations based on cashflows BABA is conservatively a $300 stock.
Vaalco Energy(EGY) is not a penny stock. It's a small cap stock that has a Enterprise Value (market cap + net debt) of $354 million. On that $354m EV it had $80 million in operating income in 2021 even with oil prices at depressed levels early in the year. EGY is debt free. EGY breaks even with oil at $45/barrel. EGY is immensely profitable with oil at $75/barrel. Oil is currently $100+/barrel and looks to remain elevated for the foreseeable future with the global economy(ex-Asia) rising out of COVID. I conservatively estimate that EGY is worth $15-20 a share. It currently trades at $6.88. I started purchasing in the $1 range and continue to add.
As far as a possible 50% loss tomorrow, I watch the business not the stock price. The fundamentals of EGY are strong. As far as concentration with 50%+ in one stock, I tend to treat my stock investments as purchases of pieces of businesses not pieces of paper. Nearly all airline pilots have all their income concentrated in one job that requires a yearly medical and proficiency check to continue producing that income. Write that down as a stock and one would think that's a crazy level of risk but in reality no one bats an eye. Moreover, the chances of EGY going down 50% at current oil prices are the same as Greenslips disappearing this Summer. It's possible, but highly unlikely.
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04-04-2022, 05:02 AM
#477
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,456
I invested in a new airplane. On paper I got a deal but I'm happily losing money on it.
04-04-2022, 05:28 AM
#479
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,456
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