5 year Market Outlook opinions
03-08-2022, 08:27 AM
#451
Stands to be Corrected
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Position: C-17 / 7ER
Posts: 323
5500 is next target for spx. Personally, I will be unloading 95% of my portfolio up there and using options to leverage very little principal for higher skews. Ultimately, 6000 is what expect before the fat lady sings, but I'm not waiting for that. Hallmark signs in the last decade, in particular now with low liquidity and dealer gamma imbalance running the show, that we are dangerously close to a lost decade. Right or wrong, better be prepared. And yes, oil is going higher.
03-08-2022, 08:39 AM
#452
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
5500 is next target for spx. Personally, I will be unloading 95% of my portfolio up there and using options to leverage very little principal for higher skews. Ultimately, 6000 is what expect before the fat lady sings, but I'm not waiting for that. Hallmark signs in the last decade, in particular now with low liquidity and dealer gamma imbalance running the show, that we are dangerously close to a lost decade. Right or wrong, better be prepared. And yes, oil is going higher.
03-08-2022, 12:57 PM
#453
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
5500 is next target for spx. Personally, I will be unloading 95% of my portfolio up there and using options to leverage very little principal for higher skews. Ultimately, 6000 is what expect before the fat lady sings, but I'm not waiting for that. Hallmark signs in the last decade, in particular now with low liquidity and dealer gamma imbalance running the show, that we are dangerously close to a lost decade. Right or wrong, better be prepared. And yes, oil is going higher.
We went "all in" with the opening move and have no more dry powder left. Many hands will be forced by this. The era of "inside money" may be coming to a devastating close. Gradually, then all at once.
03-08-2022, 01:37 PM
#454
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
In static dollars this seems about right based on what I've seen. However many don't seem to realize we could be in a "Bretton Woods III" forced under extreme duress. And no, another illegal 6102 won't fix it. Z. Pozar has some great analysis on this right now. One distinct possibility is an inflationary "crash up" where "the market" (big indexes at least) pump all time highs but still get destroyed in purchasing power. Being cash heavy in that situation would be a disaster. The "market always goes up including the great depression" crowd isn't intellectually prepared for that because they live on one side of the equation.
We went "all in" with the opening move and have no more dry powder left. Many hands will be forced by this. The era of "inside money" may be coming to a devastating close. Gradually, then all at once.
We went "all in" with the opening move and have no more dry powder left. Many hands will be forced by this. The era of "inside money" may be coming to a devastating close. Gradually, then all at once.
03-08-2022, 03:39 PM
#455
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,616
In static dollars this seems about right based on what I've seen. However many don't seem to realize we could be in a "Bretton Woods III" forced under extreme duress. And no, another illegal 6102 won't fix it. Z. Pozar has some great analysis on this right now. One distinct possibility is an inflationary "crash up" where "the market" (big indexes at least) pump all time highs but still get destroyed in purchasing power. Being cash heavy in that situation would be a disaster. The "market always goes up including the great depression" crowd isn't intellectually prepared for that because they live on one side of the equation.
We went "all in" with the opening move and have no more dry powder left. Many hands will be forced by this. The era of "inside money" may be coming to a devastating close. Gradually, then all at once.
We went "all in" with the opening move and have no more dry powder left. Many hands will be forced by this. The era of "inside money" may be coming to a devastating close. Gradually, then all at once.
03-08-2022, 05:09 PM
#456
On Reserve
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Posts: 23
Listen, you don't have a clue about my record nor do I care to gloat about it. I don't care if I'm right or wrong or if you believe me. This will be last post in this thread. I have my own reasons and have traded on these for many years. I appropriately derisked, sold my rentals, prior to covid because I recognized a dangerous spot. It was simply risk management. Did it turn out to be the right decision in dollars and sense, no because real estate went higher. However, I did roll that money elsewhere and still yielded a better return. Not only that, it went from a riskier asset into a safer asset. Would i do the same knowing the answes to the test? Absolutely because it was smart and safe way to protect wealth when you see smoke. That is why I'm posting here, to simply state you should be planning for an alternate. Whether or not it happens, doesnt matter. The worst that can happen is you missed out on some returns. If you actually knew the energy state the market is in right now and the probabilities of a death by a thousand cuts over a decade happening to correct that state, then I'd think you'd understand. But judging by the knee jerk reaction and threat of deleting my account, I'm guessing you'll have your fingers in your ears. Your money and that's why it's a market.
03-08-2022, 07:36 PM
#458
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: LAX ER
Posts: 1,606
Listen, you don't have a clue about my record nor do I care to gloat about it. I don't care if I'm right or wrong or if you believe me. This will be last post in this thread. I have my own reasons and have traded on these for many years. I appropriately derisked, sold my rentals, prior to covid because I recognized a dangerous spot. It was simply risk management. Did it turn out to be the right decision in dollars and sense, no because real estate went higher. However, I did roll that money elsewhere and still yielded a better return. Not only that, it went from a riskier asset into a safer asset. Would i do the same knowing the answes to the test? Absolutely because it was smart and safe way to protect wealth when you see smoke. That is why I'm posting here, to simply state you should be planning for an alternate. Whether or not it happens, doesnt matter. The worst that can happen is you missed out on some returns. If you actually knew the energy state the market is in right now and the probabilities of a death by a thousand cuts over a decade happening to correct that state, then I'd think you'd understand. But judging by the knee jerk reaction and threat of deleting my account, I'm guessing you'll have your fingers in your ears. Your money and that's why it's a market.
I don’t come to airline forums for advice on my portfolio guidance and certainly not from doomsday preppers anytime the market has a jolt of bear in it to make knee jerk reactions. But hey at least you put the money where your mouth is and sold your property. I will certainly consider your advice to move my money around over the war in Ukraine and worst case scenario of energy crisis in Europe and maybe look to sell my property too.
think it’s time to open the door and go outside. Far far away from the news and markets. I don’t know of any smart investment strategies that revolve around impulsivity to negative news in the market and that’s why retail investors lose so much money. Because it’s not healthy for you or your portfolio. But again you were telling people to check their portfolio balances at the end of the year in 2019. So I think it’s safe to say if you’re always calling a bear market, maybe eventually you’ll get one right. No worries, the worlds best economists do the same thing. Get 1 out of ever 10 recessions correct.
03-08-2022, 10:54 PM
#459
On Reserve
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Posts: 23
Wow, loads to unload here.
I don’t come to airline forums for advice on my portfolio guidance and certainly not from doomsday preppers anytime the market has a jolt of bear in it to make knee jerk reactions. But hey at least you put the money where your mouth is and sold your property. I will certainly consider your advice to move my money around over the war in Ukraine and worst case scenario of energy crisis in Europe and maybe look to sell my property too.
think it’s time to open the door and go outside. Far far away from the news and markets. I don’t know of any smart investment strategies that revolve around impulsivity to negative news in the market and that’s why retail investors lose so much money. Because it’s not healthy for you or your portfolio. But again you were telling people to check their portfolio balances at the end of the year in 2019. So I think it’s safe to say if you’re always calling a bear market, maybe eventually you’ll get one right. No worries, the worlds best economists do the same thing. Get 1 out of ever 10 recessions correct.
I don’t come to airline forums for advice on my portfolio guidance and certainly not from doomsday preppers anytime the market has a jolt of bear in it to make knee jerk reactions. But hey at least you put the money where your mouth is and sold your property. I will certainly consider your advice to move my money around over the war in Ukraine and worst case scenario of energy crisis in Europe and maybe look to sell my property too.
think it’s time to open the door and go outside. Far far away from the news and markets. I don’t know of any smart investment strategies that revolve around impulsivity to negative news in the market and that’s why retail investors lose so much money. Because it’s not healthy for you or your portfolio. But again you were telling people to check their portfolio balances at the end of the year in 2019. So I think it’s safe to say if you’re always calling a bear market, maybe eventually you’ll get one right. No worries, the worlds best economists do the same thing. Get 1 out of ever 10 recessions correct.
One word for you to read up on and how it translates to cycles is liquidity.
And as a reminder from my post not even a day ago, I'm bullish up to 5500, with the expectation of 6000 eventually.
03-09-2022, 06:47 AM
#460
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Maddog FO
Posts: 653
Haha ok. Let me end it here and Ive asked the moderators to delete my account because I really don't even use this site. You want to talk markets, I'm down on Virginia Ave in upgrade. Be happy to chat.
One word for you to read up on and how it translates to cycles is liquidity.
And as a reminder from my post not even a day ago, I'm bullish up to 5500, with the expectation of 6000 eventually.
One word for you to read up on and how it translates to cycles is liquidity.
And as a reminder from my post not even a day ago, I'm bullish up to 5500, with the expectation of 6000 eventually.
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