Trip7

Comparing a whole fund to a single stock? Hilarious. BTW I'm not one single bit worried about AUPH. Bought some more today. This conversation get more and more interesting with time

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

Trip7

Just looked at the chart. Yikes

I wouldn't touch it with a 10 ft pole

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

mispoken

My bad, I thought we were just choosing arbitrary data points over arbitrary time frames to rub in each other’s faces.

Here’s another one; since inception ARKK up 300%. Over the same time period SPY up 150%. So, to answer your original question, directly; it’s long term performance has doubled that of SPY.

I agree with the hilarity of the above references, and specifically your absolute obsession with Cathie Woods. For me? I just don’t care because it has zero impact on my portfolio. But the numbers don’t lie, Cathie Has produced market beating results even after the last 2 months.

mispoken

I think that was a TegridyFarms darling not long ago, wasn’t it? Maybe he can provide some input.

I’m weary of many EV stocks. Lots of press releases with no product or even prototype. I bet even Trip and I could find some sort of common ground in that arena.

Planetrain

RMO:
I’ve been following it for awhile, what a darling that got slaughtered- both macro and internally. Some of the investment boards went really nasty on the ex-CEO. The current leadership team looks like a placeholder before they shut down. How terrible…

I’m fascinated by the Wild West of EVs and battery technology, but the last 12 months have shown some huge risk sides to even big names. I almost pulled the trigger on GWH and the sodium tech, so glad I didn’t. Maybe down the road for just a speculative fun play.

Trip7

When we began this discussion last summer ARKK had been up 600%+ since inception. Folks are starting to realize that Price matters. The Greater Fool Theory investing worked well last year but the party has to end when there are no Fools left to keep trading deeply unprofitable, cash bleeding companies to. Scary thing is.... ARKK is still overvalved. I think ARKK goes down to the $40s at which point only the few early investors who purchased at $22 will have underperformed the SPY if they held thru out the wave.



EVs and Batteries are amazing technologies with a bright future but terrible investment right now. Just like investing in internet companies in the early 2000s, folks get excited 10 years too soo, pay ABSURD prices for companies bleeding cash with intense competition. That's a recipe for destroying capital. Every single industry has gone thru this capital destroying process in the early stage, Cars, Railroads, Airlines, Telcoms, Internet, and now EVs. Stay away, stick to companies that have little debt, positive cashflow, have significant competitive advantages, and buy them Cheap. Cheap as in for every $1 a company makes in normalized earnings over a 5 year period, pay no more than $10.

We definitely have some common ground there. Tegridy's investing style seems like Cathy Wood. WKHS was another recommendation Tegridy posted. That and RMO look like Permanent Loss of Capital situations. Folks are not only out there buying these highly speculative companies with little to no revenue or earning, but they are out here buy short term options on Margin. My Goodness.



Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

ERflyer

I believe airlines are still underwater after 100 years. Up until the pandemic I think it was turning slightly positive. Now it’s crushed. If not for the bailout we’d be kaput.

Trip7

I believe you are correct. Airlines are a tough business. Very capital intensive, high fixed costs, high operating leverage with relatively low margins, and product demand subject to world events

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

Trip7

It is actually a quite fun going back and looking at these posts. As I stated before, Peletons will become expensive clothes hangers for many people. But dare I say it, Peloton stock looks reasonable here at $30. Price to Sales ratio of 2. Cut cost and focus on profitability and this can be a great turnaround resulting in great returns for those who invest at current valuation. Amazing what paying $8B vs $35B for a company that does $4B in sales does. #PriceMatters


Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

mispoken

I dont think anyone is arguing that ARKK can’t completely crater. Massive outflows of that fund could most certainly end it. But again, I couldn’t give two craps about her or her fund. If it’s her demise it what would make you happy, more power! My argument is more in regards to the companies she invests in. Even if her actual fund can’t withstand the drawdown, most of her companies she invests in, can and will. Her top 10 holdings could very possibly draw down so much that everybody ejects at the same time and it’s lights for ARK. Fast forward a decade and odds are in the favor of anyone that had stayed invested in those companies, had generated great deals of wealth.

And that is the crux of my argument. You think you can find these tops and bottoms and “the right valuation”. I admit I am incapable of this and I believe nearly everyone in history that has claimed they can, have failed. If you think you’ve found a short term top and take your winnings and then look back 20-30 years later, chances are you’ve lost out on huge profits.

Your short term valuation models vs my long term buy and hold model is the question here. I’m always buying through ups and downs, you’re buying and selling based on whatever metric you think validates a stock price, which is why evaluating results over long time periods (5+ years) is the key to prove one method or the other.

Slinging handfuls of poop back and fourth over what is unfolding over 2 months or 2 days is useless and a waste of time. I can start making the “call” that everything will go back up against your “call” that everything is doomed. Both of us will be right, but it doesn’t make either one of us “smart”. Because, as always, nobody knows anything.

So, I’m not going to browse years of posts to find calls that you made that were wrong, like what you just did with PTON. But what I am going to do, is go buy some more of my favorite companies!