5 year Market Outlook opinions
#361
interesting since his “since inception” chart says 1999. And yes. Underwhelming. Why pay this guy 2.4% when you can just buy the index. Why does he discourage use of ETFs? Because he doesn’t make money if you buy those instead.
Tell me, when did he close his JCP position? How did that turn out? I can’t say, and honestly I don’t really care. He doubled his money at the time of this writing, and if he closed it out after 12 months, who is doing the trading? The ETF investor or this bozo? His turnover according to morning star is 42%. Again, who is doing the trading?
for someone who claims to be as intelligent as you do, you really have bought into the instutional and academic side of things. The whole system is stacked so that this bozo can collect his fees, Becuase there is a perceived level of safety there. And you need big money names like this to “keep you safe” from the scary and risky thing called investing. All these guys do is destroy wealth through underperforming and fees. He has hundreds of millions in money he manages not because he’s an exceptional investor, but because he’s a good marketer. There’s nothing in his performance number down the entire list that is exceptional.
The financial industry has also created a market for books. Books that you think contain some sort of secret sauce to investing, when the real secret sauce is simply doing nothing. But you can’t write a book about that. To sell their books they need to have some sort of convoluted method full of equations, accounting, and big words. I also went through this phase, where I thought I could buy a book and becoming the next Warren Buffett, but that phase is a decade behind me. There’s no secret sauce in any of those books, so I’ll pass.
Im not any type of investor except a patient one. There will be a time when the companies I hold become a “value” (whatever that means) and there will be times when I buy more of them at this “value” level. The reason? Because I’m always buying.
You continue to amaze me with your overconfidence. You really think you know something more than the market. Amazing! You’ll come around, but you’re new to this journey, and I’ve been there too.
Tell me, when did he close his JCP position? How did that turn out? I can’t say, and honestly I don’t really care. He doubled his money at the time of this writing, and if he closed it out after 12 months, who is doing the trading? The ETF investor or this bozo? His turnover according to morning star is 42%. Again, who is doing the trading?
for someone who claims to be as intelligent as you do, you really have bought into the instutional and academic side of things. The whole system is stacked so that this bozo can collect his fees, Becuase there is a perceived level of safety there. And you need big money names like this to “keep you safe” from the scary and risky thing called investing. All these guys do is destroy wealth through underperforming and fees. He has hundreds of millions in money he manages not because he’s an exceptional investor, but because he’s a good marketer. There’s nothing in his performance number down the entire list that is exceptional.
The financial industry has also created a market for books. Books that you think contain some sort of secret sauce to investing, when the real secret sauce is simply doing nothing. But you can’t write a book about that. To sell their books they need to have some sort of convoluted method full of equations, accounting, and big words. I also went through this phase, where I thought I could buy a book and becoming the next Warren Buffett, but that phase is a decade behind me. There’s no secret sauce in any of those books, so I’ll pass.
Im not any type of investor except a patient one. There will be a time when the companies I hold become a “value” (whatever that means) and there will be times when I buy more of them at this “value” level. The reason? Because I’m always buying.
You continue to amaze me with your overconfidence. You really think you know something more than the market. Amazing! You’ll come around, but you’re new to this journey, and I’ve been there too.
#362
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
You are very very new to this investing game and have become overconfident off Motley Fool-type investing strategies. The next couple of years are going to be very telling for you. You have trading and investing completely mixed up. The intrinsic value of a stock is it's future free cash flows discounted to the present value. Nothing more nothing less. Over the next couple of years, you will learn that price matters more than patience.
Here’s the funny part of all this. What I do, I back up with my personal numbers, hard data that I’ve meticulously kept.
Then there’s you; your proof is a book, an article, a chart, a tweet. Not real performance data, just words. Until you can provide your own personal performance numbers you are nothing more than words, and usually words written by someone else.
One has produced significant amounts of money. One has produced….?
You’re welcome to have the last statement in this volley. Talk to you in a year!
#363
Well, if investing for 25 years is new, ok. I’m new.
Here’s the funny part of all this. What I do, I back up with my personal numbers, hard data that I’ve meticulously kept.
Then there’s you; your proof is a book, an article, a chart, a tweet. Not real performance data, just words. Until you can provide your own personal performance numbers you are nothing more than words, and usually words written by someone else.
One has produced significant amounts of money. One has produced….?
You’re welcome to have the last statement in this volley. Talk to you in a year!
Here’s the funny part of all this. What I do, I back up with my personal numbers, hard data that I’ve meticulously kept.
Then there’s you; your proof is a book, an article, a chart, a tweet. Not real performance data, just words. Until you can provide your own personal performance numbers you are nothing more than words, and usually words written by someone else.
One has produced significant amounts of money. One has produced….?
You’re welcome to have the last statement in this volley. Talk to you in a year!
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
#364
That's why it's important for the intelligent investor to verify media recommendations with primary source documentation, ie the Balance Sheet, Income Statement, Cashflow Statement, and Proxy Statement. The intelligent investor would have avoided Enron because the cashflow statement showed the company bleeding cash while the balance sheet showed the company long term Debt increasing
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
#365
The decline related to BABA is all noise. Mostly the unfounded fear of China forcing a delisting of the stock on foreign exchanges. China basically came out and slapped the big companies on the wrist and said you guys aren't going to grow into monopolistic super corporations who take advantage of the general population in the name of more profit. China is okay with letting these companies grow their profit as long as there is mutual benefit for the company and the people. Of course some Westerners get offended by this and throw a temper tantrum and run with their money but we've all seen what happens when capital markets are allowed to operate unhinged from time to time (Tech Bubble, Real Estate Bubble etc).
When you look at BABA's business fundamentals, 30%+ annual growth in Revenue, Earnings, and Free Cash flow, then factor in the growth of AliCloud, which is projected to be BABA's biggest cash generator in a few years even though it contributes nearly zero cash flow today, for a price of 9 times free cash flow BABA is absurdly low. Hence I added not only BABA shares, but LEAPS for added leverage to my brokerage account. In my 401k BABA is an 11% position for me.
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When you look at BABA's business fundamentals, 30%+ annual growth in Revenue, Earnings, and Free Cash flow, then factor in the growth of AliCloud, which is projected to be BABA's biggest cash generator in a few years even though it contributes nearly zero cash flow today, for a price of 9 times free cash flow BABA is absurdly low. Hence I added not only BABA shares, but LEAPS for added leverage to my brokerage account. In my 401k BABA is an 11% position for me.
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Last edited by notEnuf; 01-06-2022 at 07:54 AM.
#366
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 1,418
The decline related to BABA is all noise. Mostly the unfounded fear of China forcing a delisting of the stock on foreign exchanges. China basically came out and slapped the big companies on the wrist and said you guys aren't going to grow into monopolistic super corporations who take advantage of the general population in the name of more profit. China is okay with letting these companies grow their profit as long as there is mutual benefit for the company and the people. Of course some Westerners get offended by this and throw a temper tantrum and run with their money but we've all seen what happens when capital markets are allowed to operate unhinged from time to time (Tech Bubble, Real Estate Bubble etc).
When you look at BABA's business fundamentals, 30%+ annual growth in Revenue, Earnings, and Free Cash flow, then factor in the growth of AliCloud, which is projected to be BABA's biggest cash generator in a few years even though it contributes nearly zero cash flow today, for a price of 9 times free cash flow BABA is absurdly low. Hence I added not only BABA shares, but LEAPS for added leverage to my brokerage account. In my 401k BABA is an 11% position for me.
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
When you look at BABA's business fundamentals, 30%+ annual growth in Revenue, Earnings, and Free Cash flow, then factor in the growth of AliCloud, which is projected to be BABA's biggest cash generator in a few years even though it contributes nearly zero cash flow today, for a price of 9 times free cash flow BABA is absurdly low. Hence I added not only BABA shares, but LEAPS for added leverage to my brokerage account. In my 401k BABA is an 11% position for me.
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
#367
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
In the spirit of financial enrichment and moving away from me bickering with someone else; this article was too good to not post and very relevant to some of the conversation being had on here. This is one of his better articles I’ve ever read. Enjoy!
https://www.collaborativefund.com/bl...s-not-compute/
https://www.collaborativefund.com/bl...s-not-compute/
#368
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,125
In the spirit of financial enrichment and moving away from me bickering with someone else; this article was too good to not post and very relevant to some of the conversation being had on here. This is one of his better articles I’ve ever read. Enjoy!
https://www.collaborativefund.com/bl...s-not-compute/
https://www.collaborativefund.com/bl...s-not-compute/
Im a buy-til-I-die boglehead. Simple, low cost, set it and forget it. I’ll let you know how I did when I retire.
#369
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 331
Half the companies in the S&P 500 are going bankrupt.
Massive changes underway. Solar, EVs, battery storage, blockchain, bitcoin.
Study everything Cathie Wood says and writes.
Tom Lee, Tony Seba, Michael Saylor.
They will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. IMO.
It’s another MSTR day.😃
Massive changes underway. Solar, EVs, battery storage, blockchain, bitcoin.
Study everything Cathie Wood says and writes.
Tom Lee, Tony Seba, Michael Saylor.
They will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. IMO.
It’s another MSTR day.😃
I will say the EV push is real, and in my opinion it is probably best to own the materials that are required to make the EVs such as graphite, copper, etc. not the high flying speculative/unprofitable companies.
#370
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2016
Posts: 397
RAA
Anyone have any experience with RAA, present or past?
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