Buck Rogers

Yikes!!! indeed. But as a point of reference, Cathy Woods invests in new age go-go performers and is down a whopping 46% from the high to the low(52 week). Her style is assumed to carry much more risk. You advertise a cigar butt style of investing ...buying beaten down companies that can't possibly go much lower ie much lower risk. However, your BABA position ... AFTER a rebound, is down an even more eye-popping 56%. Perspective I guess....I am curious why you dwell/fixation on Cathy Woods and her different style of investing and preach to the heavens, "Avoid this strategy", when your strategy can carry the same pitfalls or greater?

edit: Sorry ... I see Mispoken has similar concerns and was quicker

DenVa

I had the same thought. The guys is leveraged to the hills towards Chinese tech. His positions could lose 100% of his capital due to his strategy of Leaps. Something he preaches to avoid. He will likely learn he was gambling all along.

mispoken

Ok, so it wasn’t just me that saw this strange love affair Trip has with Cathie. :-)

Also, I do want to point out that for someone who is very concerned with permanent loss of capital, it would be hard to find a portfolio with a higher risk of that than Trips. That being said, if one or two of those does take off, there will be no chance of catching up in the short term.

I’m a gambler too, so I don’t fault him for what he’s doing with buying calls, but I also don’t pretend to be some sort of investing savant that knows more than “the market”. I am comfortable with not knowing anything. Case and point, the last two days in my portfolio have lost the value of a nice house. What a genius I am!


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DenVa

i don’t mind gambling either, but just don’t tell me it’s investing.

Gunfighter

One more reason I like real estate. I already have enough noise with the constant ringing in my ears. I don't need CNBC in the background.

Many investors go through the gambling phase with lots of day trading and options trading. I know I did. The constant flow of ups and downs is exhausting. Buying good companies and good real estate, then holding for years is more relaxing and as it turns out more profitable. The time I used to waste on trading and following markets gets put into hobbies.

The quote "Nothing in life is certain but death and taxes" was penned while the dollar was still pegged to the value of gold. The modern version is "Nothing in life is certain except death, taxes and inflation". - Gunfighter c2022

Taking this certainty to heart, real estate becomes an easy decision as it benefits from all 3.
Heirs inherit the property at death on a stepped up basis reducing taxes. Over the lifetime of the property the value can be extracted with a tax free cash out refinance, while preserving current income from cash flow. The central banks and federal government have guaranteed inflation which multiplies gains in leveraged, cash flowing real estate. It has a better guarantee of inflation beating returns than any government guaranteed deposit account. Aligning your long term financial interests with the government and banks is a safer bet than competing with professional traders and AI platforms on Wall Street.

notEnuf

I have to second this. After years of market chasing I hit my number (which would have happened without all the obsessing anyway) and now it's all on autopilot. But, I also got out of the real estate (direct ownership) game too. Too much hands on tenant patrolling. Now I just do REITs and index funds. The freedom and peace of mind is breath taking. Redevelopment REITs are doing well. Office space is getting cheaper while housing is escalating.

Trip7

First off you're comparing a whole fund to one stock.

2nd, Price matters. BABA not only has cashflows but its growing at 30% at year. That's not even factoring in AliCloud which just became profitable and on pace to become BABA's biggest revenue generator in a few years.

Cathy invested in company's that had little to no profit, and price went up exponentially, and those companies still have little to no profit. Cashflow isn't even in the discussion. Most investors that piled into ARKK did so after the big run up(chasing returns). Most ARKK investors are underwater and based on the Nosebleed valuations that litter the stocks in Cathy's Fund there is alot further down to go.

If you don't fully understand the businesses you are investing in and pay a reasonable price the market will test you and it will break you. Lots of folks invested in ARKK, TSLA, Cypto etc will find that out over the few months

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Trip7

How can you say my portfolio is risky when you just stated if one or two out of the multiple positions I'm invested in take off there is no hoe of catching up. I invest mainly in cashflowing companies that are trading at deep discounts relative to conservative future free cashflow projections. Literally every position will have to fail for me to have permanent loss of capital and that's with me doing zero rolls and holding everything to expiration next January. Heck my investment in Tencent (shares not LEAPS) alone can probably make up losses for the entire portfolio over the long run. Only plausible permanent loss of capital scenario would be an End of the World event in which case money would be of little value

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mispoken

Yeah. We get it. You have a hardon for Cathie and Elon. You also have said it multiple times that they’re doomed, only to watch them reach ATH. This has happened more than once. Just admit it man! You don’t know anything. None of us do.


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Trip7

I have a 6% position in BABA LEAPS. My Tencent position are shares not LEAPS. How am I leveraged to the hills on Chinese Tech?

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