5 year Market Outlook opinions
#311
I am continually amazed at the number and intensity of people that feel they don't have an obligation to financially support the society that allowed them to be successful in the first place.
#313
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
The government didn't build that. We did.
#314
Is it possible you have confused confiscatory taxes with financial support?
#316
On Reserve
Joined APC: Dec 2021
Posts: 17
For those of you making savvy money decisions here at DAL….
I am in the beginning of my career here. I’ll admit I don’t know the first thing about best ways to make my money work for me long-term. I am interested in learning, and have taking to reading more these days about the topic, but I’m looking for help to chart a good path from day one.
My question is this; Do you recommend an advisor to lay the ground work now and potentially get financial advice from? I’m sure some of you use firms or investment businesses to assist in your planning. Outside of an Edward Jones or something of sorts I’m a little clueless on where I should start. Would like help in overall planning and retirement planning strategies for the next 29 years…
Thank you!
I am in the beginning of my career here. I’ll admit I don’t know the first thing about best ways to make my money work for me long-term. I am interested in learning, and have taking to reading more these days about the topic, but I’m looking for help to chart a good path from day one.
My question is this; Do you recommend an advisor to lay the ground work now and potentially get financial advice from? I’m sure some of you use firms or investment businesses to assist in your planning. Outside of an Edward Jones or something of sorts I’m a little clueless on where I should start. Would like help in overall planning and retirement planning strategies for the next 29 years…
Thank you!
Long-time listener, first time caller here on the show.
Sorry to retrograde this conversation but here’s my $0.02 on personal finance and the “advisor” issue.
Personal Finance:
- Like others have said, personal finance is personal. There are a million ways to get where you want to go. The key is finding out what works for you.
- Your primary role in personal finance is more like a CFO and less like Gordon Gecko. You are running a small business (your family/home/etc) and you will have to continuously make decisions on capital deployment (human, debt, investments), manage liquidity/cash flow, etc over your lifetime.
- Unfortunately, success does not come from buying the magic product or talking to the magic expert or buying the magic investment.
- Success comes from knowing where you want to go, making a specific plan to get there, and then *continuously* executing to get there.
- You can seek help with some of the knowledge and execution for this success, but the ultimate responsibility is always on you. It cannot be outsourced.
- Book recommendation: Family Inc by Douglas P. McCormick
Financial Advisors
- The financial services industry has multiple flavors of financial “advisors.” The term itself is not regulated. Therefore, you have to dig deeper to understand what is being “sold” and how. The general offerings are: insurance products, investment products, and financial advice.
- Understanding cost is always and only one half of the purchase decision. To make a rational choice, you have to compare total cost to total benefit. If someone makes (or saves) you more benefit than they cost, you should hire them!
- Assets Under Management (AUM) is one of many types of fee structures. There are others and they all have goods/others.
- Having transitioned from an advanced DIYer to someone who helps others with finances at a professional level, I am convinced now more than ever that ***EVERYONE*** would benefit from professional financial help at some point in their lives.
- Recommended Resources: XY Planning Network, Fee Only Network, and National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA)
#317
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
Trip7 Alright, here are the numbers, you read em, I'll weep! :-)
From June 6-December 31 my return was 0.54%, barely squeaked out a profit. The S&P 500 in that same time period returned 11.172%, so it was an underperformance by 10.632%
Here is a crazy a number; for that time period the peak to trough was a 60% movement. Said another way, early November it was up 40% for that time period and by early December it was down to -20%. This is the nature of my portfolio and the companies I invest in. Additionally, this is reflective of short term market volatility, not necessarily long term risk. The time period is also statistically irrelevant.
For further perspective here is how my portfolio has fared since I started keeping very detailed notes on it:
For 2021 the S&P 500 returned 24.942% if one were to reinvest dividends, my portfolio returned 3.85% an under performance of -21.09% on the year.
As always, perspective is key when investing. We can see 2021 wasn't good for me, but if I zoom out a bit I have the following numbers:
Since January 1, 2016-December 31, 2021 my portfolio has returned 26.72% ANNUALIZED. Said another way, every year for the last 5 years I have returned 26.72%. For the same time period, the S&P Has returned 18.44% which is an outperformance by +8.28% on an annual basis.
More details if you're interested; here is the list of companies I purchased using new money in the time period June 1-December 31 and their allocations. Note: The intent of this isn't to discuss the merit of each individual holding, it's valuation, it's prospects etc. It also is not advice as to which company YOU should invest in. I'm comfortable with my style of investing but this should shed a little more light as to WHY I had so much short term volatility (which is irrelevant in the long run). As time goes on, and I continue to add and these companies flourish or fail, allocations will change. This also IS NOT a representation of my overall portfolio in any way. Some of my largest and best performing holdings are not on this list at all. Summary; UPST and GLBE (my largest purchases in those 7 months) got shellacked!
ABNB 12.68%
CRWD 3.42%
DLO 1.79%
ETSY 2.58%
FVRR 3.37%
GLBE 21.98%
MNDY 8.64%
NET 6.73%
OKTA 9.8%
PATH 3.44%
PINS 0.63%
SE 0.4%
SKLZ 1.21%
TSLA 3.14%
UPST 20.20%
From June 6-December 31 my return was 0.54%, barely squeaked out a profit. The S&P 500 in that same time period returned 11.172%, so it was an underperformance by 10.632%
Here is a crazy a number; for that time period the peak to trough was a 60% movement. Said another way, early November it was up 40% for that time period and by early December it was down to -20%. This is the nature of my portfolio and the companies I invest in. Additionally, this is reflective of short term market volatility, not necessarily long term risk. The time period is also statistically irrelevant.
For further perspective here is how my portfolio has fared since I started keeping very detailed notes on it:
For 2021 the S&P 500 returned 24.942% if one were to reinvest dividends, my portfolio returned 3.85% an under performance of -21.09% on the year.
As always, perspective is key when investing. We can see 2021 wasn't good for me, but if I zoom out a bit I have the following numbers:
Since January 1, 2016-December 31, 2021 my portfolio has returned 26.72% ANNUALIZED. Said another way, every year for the last 5 years I have returned 26.72%. For the same time period, the S&P Has returned 18.44% which is an outperformance by +8.28% on an annual basis.
More details if you're interested; here is the list of companies I purchased using new money in the time period June 1-December 31 and their allocations. Note: The intent of this isn't to discuss the merit of each individual holding, it's valuation, it's prospects etc. It also is not advice as to which company YOU should invest in. I'm comfortable with my style of investing but this should shed a little more light as to WHY I had so much short term volatility (which is irrelevant in the long run). As time goes on, and I continue to add and these companies flourish or fail, allocations will change. This also IS NOT a representation of my overall portfolio in any way. Some of my largest and best performing holdings are not on this list at all. Summary; UPST and GLBE (my largest purchases in those 7 months) got shellacked!
ABNB 12.68%
CRWD 3.42%
DLO 1.79%
ETSY 2.58%
FVRR 3.37%
GLBE 21.98%
MNDY 8.64%
NET 6.73%
OKTA 9.8%
PATH 3.44%
PINS 0.63%
SE 0.4%
SKLZ 1.21%
TSLA 3.14%
UPST 20.20%
Last edited by mispoken; 01-02-2022 at 10:55 AM.
#318
Trip7 Alright, here are the numbers, you read em, I'll weep! :-)
From June 6-December 31 my return was 0.54%, barely squeaked out a profit. The S&P 500 in that same time period returned 11.172%, so it was an underperformance by 10.632%
Here is a crazy a number; for that time period the peak to trough was a 60% movement. Said another way, early November it was up 40% for that time period and by early December it was down to -20%. This is the nature of my portfolio and the companies I invest in. Additionally, this is reflective of short term market volatility, not necessarily long term risk. The time period is also statistically irrelevant.
For further perspective here is how my portfolio has fared since I started keeping very detailed notes on it:
For 2021 the S&P 500 returned 24.942% if one were to reinvest dividends, my portfolio returned 3.85% an under performance of -21.09% on the year.
As always, perspective is key when investing. We can see 2021 wasn't good for me, but if I zoom out a bit I have the following numbers:
Since January 1, 2016-December 31, 2021 my portfolio has returned 26.72% ANNUALIZED. Said another way, every year for the last 5 years I have returned 26.72%. For the same time period, the S&P Has returned 18.44% which is an outperformance by +8.28% on an annual basis.
More details if you're interested; here is the list of companies I purchased using new money in the time period June 1-December 31 and their allocations. Note: The intent of this isn't to discuss the merit of each individual holding, it's valuation, it's prospects etc. It also is not advice as to which company YOU should invest in. I'm comfortable with my style of investing but this should shed a little more light as to WHY I had so much short term volatility (which is irrelevant in the long run). As time goes on, and I continue to add and these companies flourish or fail, allocations will change. This also IS NOT a representation of my overall portfolio in any way. Some of my largest and best performing holdings are not on this list at all. Summary; UPST and GLBE (my largest purchases in those 7 months) got shellacked!
ABNB 12.68%
CRWD 3.42%
DLO 1.79%
ETSY 2.58%
FVRR 3.37%
GLBE 21.98%
MNDY 8.64%
NET 6.73%
OKTA 9.8%
PATH 3.44%
PINS 0.63%
SE 0.4%
SKLZ 1.21%
TSLA 3.14%
UPST 20.20%
From June 6-December 31 my return was 0.54%, barely squeaked out a profit. The S&P 500 in that same time period returned 11.172%, so it was an underperformance by 10.632%
Here is a crazy a number; for that time period the peak to trough was a 60% movement. Said another way, early November it was up 40% for that time period and by early December it was down to -20%. This is the nature of my portfolio and the companies I invest in. Additionally, this is reflective of short term market volatility, not necessarily long term risk. The time period is also statistically irrelevant.
For further perspective here is how my portfolio has fared since I started keeping very detailed notes on it:
For 2021 the S&P 500 returned 24.942% if one were to reinvest dividends, my portfolio returned 3.85% an under performance of -21.09% on the year.
As always, perspective is key when investing. We can see 2021 wasn't good for me, but if I zoom out a bit I have the following numbers:
Since January 1, 2016-December 31, 2021 my portfolio has returned 26.72% ANNUALIZED. Said another way, every year for the last 5 years I have returned 26.72%. For the same time period, the S&P Has returned 18.44% which is an outperformance by +8.28% on an annual basis.
More details if you're interested; here is the list of companies I purchased using new money in the time period June 1-December 31 and their allocations. Note: The intent of this isn't to discuss the merit of each individual holding, it's valuation, it's prospects etc. It also is not advice as to which company YOU should invest in. I'm comfortable with my style of investing but this should shed a little more light as to WHY I had so much short term volatility (which is irrelevant in the long run). As time goes on, and I continue to add and these companies flourish or fail, allocations will change. This also IS NOT a representation of my overall portfolio in any way. Some of my largest and best performing holdings are not on this list at all. Summary; UPST and GLBE (my largest purchases in those 7 months) got shellacked!
ABNB 12.68%
CRWD 3.42%
DLO 1.79%
ETSY 2.58%
FVRR 3.37%
GLBE 21.98%
MNDY 8.64%
NET 6.73%
OKTA 9.8%
PATH 3.44%
PINS 0.63%
SE 0.4%
SKLZ 1.21%
TSLA 3.14%
UPST 20.20%
Agreed that 7 months is statistically irrelevant but this sets a good foundation for expressing our investing process as we move forward. Looking forward to the 1-year update in June.
#319
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
From June 6 till Dec 31st my time-weighted return was -26.17%. This is mostly due to two factors. First, I have a large amount of capital(by cost basis) allocated to BABA LEAPS which has taken an epic beating, and secondly, Fidelity prices options at the BID price not in the middle so since my portfolio is heavy in LEAPS the valuations are priced conservatively. Overall excited for 2022 as I added heavily during the tax-loss selling season.
Agreed that 7 months is statistically irrelevant but this sets a good foundation for expressing our investing process as we move forward. Looking forward to the 1-year update in June.
Agreed that 7 months is statistically irrelevant but this sets a good foundation for expressing our investing process as we move forward. Looking forward to the 1-year update in June.
In the spirit of keeping things on the same metrics, I thought we had agreed to use Sharesight? I signed up and paid for the higher level of tracking specifically for that purpose, so we had an apples to apples comparison. I didn’t do much in the way of options for that time period, but I also see that Sharesight doesn’t support them. If you remove your options from the equation what is your perf?
also, the image posted is blurry and illegible. Curious to see the holdings from that time period.
#320
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
From June 6 till Dec 31st my time-weighted return was -26.17%. This is mostly due to two factors. First, I have a large amount of capital(by cost basis) allocated to BABA LEAPS which has taken an epic beating, and secondly, Fidelity prices options at the BID price not in the middle so since my portfolio is heavy in LEAPS the valuations are priced conservatively. Overall excited for 2022 as I added heavily during the tax-loss selling season.
Agreed that 7 months is statistically irrelevant but this sets a good foundation for expressing our investing process as we move forward. Looking forward to the 1-year update in June.
Agreed that 7 months is statistically irrelevant but this sets a good foundation for expressing our investing process as we move forward. Looking forward to the 1-year update in June.
I can kind of squint and see some things here and there. Almost exclusively LEAPS? Can’t really see in what….. You’re going to either absolutely annihilate me or be begging me for beer money! And we should know in the next 18 months…. Good luck! 🍻
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