Trip7

My Crypto algorithm triggered a Sell All signal so I've liquidated all my Cypto holding for at least 7 days. Be careful out there.

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Planetrain

Anybody know what happens to an ADR (like BABA) if China forces it to be delisted? Isn’t the security still “held in trust” in somewhere like Hong Kong? Is the ADR then OTC vs NYSE? How can a foreign country force this on another’s exchange? (I don’t own BABA, but do own RDS ADR, which is also going through some “reorganizing” as the C-suite sheds its Dutch homeland)

Trip7

Each $BABA ADR is fully fungible into eight (8) HK shares. If you are concerned about an ADR delisting, you have a right to exchange for the HK shares. The business value of Alibaba is not dependent on the exchange on which it trades.

https://www.scmp.com/business/compan...n=3039859&s=09

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mispoken

Right, and my 11 sided die told me to buy Tesla at $5.

You get no credit for posting “I called it 7 days ago”. Save that for your phony “prophetic trader” twitter account.

Trip7

It's not voodo it's simply a Momentum strategy. Historically momentum strategies work well with asset classes that trade at irrational levels for an extended period of time, ie South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania, Tech Bubble etc etc, provided you have protections built in to get out in on piece before or during a crash

https://youtu.be/ag14Ao_xO4c

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Trip7

I'm initiating a thematic short of ARKK into my portfolio by purchasing SARK LEAPS. Some of the stocks in ARKK are down 85% and STILL overvalued based on fundamentals. There's and ole saying on Wallstreet:

"What's the difference between a stock 80% and a stock down 90%?

A stock down 90% is a stock that was down 80% that got cut in half"

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mispoken

There may very well be further downside, but maybe not. This is the nature of investing in tech. It will be interesting to see where this "thematic" purchase stands in 5 years. Since perspective is key for the true investor; lets zoom out from the blood bath the last two weeks and see how one would have done over a longer, more meaningful period of time. Here is the last 5 years of ARKK vs SPY.

Edit; I decided to play the opposite side of this. I bought a Jan 2024 $185 call for $6.85. Purely speculative and very low probability of success, but thought it would help keep things interesting. Check back with me in in 774 days.

Trip7

"Past Performance is not indicative of future returns."

All that past performance for ARKK priced in "potential" future cashflows silly early. Now folks are starting to realize those future cashflows won't exist. In many cases it's impossible for those cashflows to exist. It's like paying $3 million today for the future cashflows of an aspiring airline pilot working on their private license and a year later you realize that individual will never pass an instrument rating.

This is what happens when you play the growth game and pay nosebleed valuations for " hope". The next 5 years will likely turn most growth investors into 2 new types of investors after getting their face ripped off:

1. Index "Coffee Can" type Investors

2. Value Investors



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mispoken

I'm not saying it will repeat the last 5 years at all. I'm simply stating that if one keeps perspective on how its gone the last 5 years, you'd be well ahead of the market. Dwelling on the last two weeks is a fools errand and futile. Case and point, not a few months ago you were calling for the bottom to fall out of Tesla and ARKK. Go look at what happened after you called for that. While I find it admirable you're sticking to your bearish thesis, your past "calls" are proof that attempts at valuation are pointless, especially in the short term. But, the beauty of the permabear method is that, as long as you keep saying it, you WILL be right sometime. For instance, you’re right the last two weeks, but in my world, two weeks is meaningless. As far as I can tell, past performance is just as good of an indicator as any, and just as accurate as your future predictions using your "quantitive momentum algos" and your magical division problems that you use to value companies. The difference between you and I is that you seem to think you have an edge or some sort of perspective into how things MUST be in the market. Lessons of the past two decades have taught me that is impossible and nobody knows anything. It's also very telling that you only come out of the woodwork during market down turns. Up until two weeks ago, you seemed to keep your genius to yourself; why is that? Amazing how when crypto crashes you pass through with a "I called it 7 days ago" type post or when ARKK goes down 20% in a couple weeks, it's somehow your proof. And when Tesla goes down in the future, I'm sure we'll hear from you then too. The only thing that has proven true for me to this point is that the only real upper hand we have in investing is time and as hard as it was to beat into my head, NKA. Happy hunting!

StickPig

For those of you making savvy money decisions here at DAL….

I am in the beginning of my career here. I’ll admit I don’t know the first thing about best ways to make my money work for me long-term. I am interested in learning, and have taking to reading more these days about the topic, but I’m looking for help to chart a good path from day one.

My question is this; Do you recommend an advisor to lay the ground work now and potentially get financial advice from? I’m sure some of you use firms or investment businesses to assist in your planning. Outside of an Edward Jones or something of sorts I’m a little clueless on where I should start. Would like help in overall planning and retirement planning strategies for the next 29 years…

Thank you!