gloopy

Many absolutely are. But BTC isn't a "Ponzi" and is in fact the exact opposite. 90% has already been mined. Govt "cryptos" will be just as much a Ponzi as the poopiest of poop coins with their unlimited supply. We're seeing the "dot com bubble" psychology right now as investors can no longer deny the "Metcalf's Law" or use case of BTC so they think any and all cheap poopcoins are merely ground floor Bitcoins for a thousand a penny; they're wrong now like they were wrong then. The vast majority will fail and most of what suceeds won't have eye watering returns anyway as their entire use case is based on being cheap and easy or else they're automatically replaced.

As for your last point (I assume you're point to the derivatives and manipulation tactics like we see in assets such as metals and even stocks) that is a concern to some extent. But for BTC the fake paper "whales" don't have the same level of control. There's also a legal push to allow spot ETF's instead of just "futures" as being an arbitrary and caprecious violation of the Administrative Procedures Act. Even if that effort loses, the cat is already out of the bag. They can't contain to anywhere near the same extent an asset that's fungibile 24/7/365 between currencies, private parties and even governments but I say let them try. The "flippers and dippers" will continue to get rekt chasing the very fiat trash its the best alternative to in the first place.

And "China ban" LMAFO! This is like the millionth one of those and has only helped the network. Their pathetic little attempt to control the uncontrollable fiat monstrosity they've unleashed in their paper dragon command and control economy has already backfired in their faces as a multi trillion dollar generational miscalculation. I hope they double ban it. Triple ban it even!

Bigsaw

Tell me you understand Bitcoin without understanding Bitcoin. If you did not mean to add Bitcoin into your “crypto” argument the just ignore.

this will clear it up for you.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YHjYt6Jm5j8

Actually the biggest Ponzi is social security

The current cryptocurrencies are a giant Ponzi scheme. Crypto and blockchain do have a place within reserve currencies. As nations, like China, and eventually the US and others, set up their own crypto/blockchain around their own fiat currency what will happen to the current crypto’s? What will happen when they’re more regulated? They will trade like stocks but without any underlying hard assets.[/QUOTE]

DeltaboundRedux

https://ocw.mit.edu/search/ocwsearch.htm?q=blockchain%20and%20money

MIT OpenCourses “Blockchain and Money”.

About 23 video lectures from a former Goldman guy who also worked in government in various regulatory capacities.

2018, somewhat dated, NOT a “how to get rich quick investment course”. But I’m 2 courses in & have learned a great deal.

Interesting stuff, not quite ready for prime time (in 2018).

gloopy

The vast majority are. Some don't really even try and hide it. But it's dot-com-bubble season right now and its easy to plow a few hundred or a few thousand into some poopcoin Ponzis to get "millions" of them. There's a few "alts" that will likely make it lomg term, but the more their price "moons" the more it puts pressure on their own alternatives. If a coin's primary use case is fast bank transfers across borders, then it better be cheap and stay cheap or it will be replaced.

True. But their use case is what "stablecoins" currently do, with a splash of cheap and fast transfer tokens. That's it. There's nothing special about unlimited money printing just because its suddenly digital/blockchain/encrypted. Other than building towards a communist/fascist (same difference) "social credit score" and being able to "shut off" your political enemies and dissidents. But "fedcoin" or whatever will never be able to hold a candle to Bitcoin or any relevant use case "altcoin" with an actual long term growth and adoption curve.

Blockchain as a broad concept transcends "money" anyway. You could put vehicle/aircraft production and MX on a block chain for example. Or completely secure election systems. The potential applications are massive.

Depends which crypto. Stables could lose relevancy. Some exchange focused alts could prosper while others are rendered too expensive or redundantly irrelevant. Some "working tokens" will continue to prosper or fail regardless of "govcoins" because they're completely different. BTC with its fixed supply and massive decentralized network swim in a different ocean as all the others anyway. Government "crypto" will be the exact same unlimited supply, wealth & value of labor stealing, tool of the political and banking class as it is today.
.
They're already highly regulated on most on and off ramps (KYC/AML/1099's/etc) and that's actually a good thing for their use cases. The fake notion that they need to be relegated to the dark web to have a use case is rhetoric from those who best case don't know what they're talking about or worst case do and are scared of people being able to have actual immutable value they can't counterfeit on their behalf. Current fiat currencies in every form (including traceable electronic forms) are used for criminal activities by private and state actors infinitely more than third party crypto is especially ones with public ledgers like BTC.

While there is some degree of manipulation, its too decentralized at this point to have a completely distorted price discovery as other asset classes.

As for crypto as we know it, we're at about the 1997 internet adoption and value realization point.

ERflyer

Obviously it’ll all shake out at some point. Tulips still do a brisk business. They survived as will Bitcoin … probably. It will be more clear when there is a stronger correlation to currency debasement than just pure wild speculation.

As to the topic of this thread, here is a nice graph. It’s for stocks but it speaks to the mindset of investors these days.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/marke...ett-indicator/

Planetrain

Another perspective on crypto vs fiat for currency:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investo...urrencies/amp/

Trip7

Cypto is today's version of Tulip Mania. I'm playing the Crypto game with a small sum using a quantitative momentum strategy that hopefully(that's I'm only using play money) will trigger sell ahead of time before the inevitable Tech Bubble like crash.


Every few years or so investors reach irrational exuberance and believe the laws of investing have permanently changed. Then they get a reality check like ARKK investors are getting right now.


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TED74

How does one differentiate others’ irrational exuberance from your rational crypto investment strategy?

thrust

Still loading up on BABA?

Trip7

Backed up the Truck.

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