5 year Market Outlook opinions
05-18-2021, 09:28 AM
#191
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Well, it wasn’t directly from Burry, so I guess that’s a bad way to phrase it by saying “read what burry said” but I was listening to CNBC radio this morning on my walk and that’s what was being pitched. They also mentioned Burry got killed on short positions last year against Tesla, but this time it’s more of a hedge against inflation along with his many other recent investments. They mentioned he bought Amazon and petroleum. So hey, just passing on what I was listening to this morning.
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05-18-2021, 09:55 AM
#192
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 766
It's not whether I own it or not. The point I am making is that you are regurgitating information with no facts, only a guess that seems to be confirming your bias.
"Tesla is in for a STEEP decline" based on someone buying short puts which we don't know an expiration or strike. I used your logic to prove the bull thesis as well. I also encourage you to look at how many institutions hold long shares, long calls and short puts of Tesla (not including index funds) vs who is short and you tell me where the "smart money" is. One person buying puts, no matter how much, doesn't mean anything, it's a short term guess that someone is making. Your logic isn't sound and you just seem to have a bone to pick with ARK, more than anything.
You claim to be a master of valuation and you say it's going down to the 100s based on your very sophisticated calculations (BTW, that's still $500+ on a split adjusted basis which was overvalued at that price, but somehow because the share price will be in the $100s its ok now?).
Again, nothing to do with what I do or do not own. You're just saying things we always hear on CNBC and the book you read least year. No data or substance. Just words. You'd do well on CNBC, actually.
"Tesla is in for a STEEP decline" based on someone buying short puts which we don't know an expiration or strike. I used your logic to prove the bull thesis as well. I also encourage you to look at how many institutions hold long shares, long calls and short puts of Tesla (not including index funds) vs who is short and you tell me where the "smart money" is. One person buying puts, no matter how much, doesn't mean anything, it's a short term guess that someone is making. Your logic isn't sound and you just seem to have a bone to pick with ARK, more than anything.
You claim to be a master of valuation and you say it's going down to the 100s based on your very sophisticated calculations (BTW, that's still $500+ on a split adjusted basis which was overvalued at that price, but somehow because the share price will be in the $100s its ok now?).
Again, nothing to do with what I do or do not own. You're just saying things we always hear on CNBC and the book you read least year. No data or substance. Just words. You'd do well on CNBC, actually.
05-18-2021, 10:28 AM
#193
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
It's not whether I own it or not. The point I am making is that you are regurgitating information with no facts, only a guess that seems to be confirming your bias.
"Tesla is in for a STEEP decline" based on someone buying short puts which we don't know an expiration or strike. I used your logic to prove the bull thesis as well. I also encourage you to look at how many institutions hold long shares, long calls and short puts of Tesla (not including index funds) vs who is short and you tell me where the "smart money" is. One person buying puts, no matter how much, doesn't mean anything, it's a short term guess that someone is making. Your logic isn't sound and you just seem to have a bone to pick with ARK, more than anything.
You claim to be a master of valuation and you say it's going down to the 100s based on your very sophisticated calculations (BTW, that's still $500+ on a split adjusted basis which was overvalued at that price, but somehow because the share price will be in the $100s its ok now?).
Again, nothing to do with what I do or do not own. You're just saying things we always hear on CNBC and the book you read least year. No data or substance. Just words. You'd do well on CNBC, actually.
"Tesla is in for a STEEP decline" based on someone buying short puts which we don't know an expiration or strike. I used your logic to prove the bull thesis as well. I also encourage you to look at how many institutions hold long shares, long calls and short puts of Tesla (not including index funds) vs who is short and you tell me where the "smart money" is. One person buying puts, no matter how much, doesn't mean anything, it's a short term guess that someone is making. Your logic isn't sound and you just seem to have a bone to pick with ARK, more than anything.
You claim to be a master of valuation and you say it's going down to the 100s based on your very sophisticated calculations (BTW, that's still $500+ on a split adjusted basis which was overvalued at that price, but somehow because the share price will be in the $100s its ok now?).
Again, nothing to do with what I do or do not own. You're just saying things we always hear on CNBC and the book you read least year. No data or substance. Just words. You'd do well on CNBC, actually.
One does not need to be a master of valuation to know when things are priced beyond reason. There is no metric or story that can justify TSLA's valuation:
$551 BILLION Enterprise Value
$4.22B EBITDA in 2020... 130x earnings valuation
If TSLA stock stayed STATIC it would have to get $27.22B EBITDA just to reach 20x earnings. Double it to get to 10x earnings.
The GREATEST company in the world, APPL, traded at 10-15x earnings thru out its meteoric rise.
FB is trading at 21x and growing faster than TSLA
GOOGL is at 17x.
Buying TSLA is like buying a $50 million dollar apartment building that cashflows $1000 a month growing at 20% annually and hoping to sell it to a "greater fool" for $100 million. Good luck getting a return on your investment
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05-18-2021, 10:45 AM
#194
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Position: A350 Both
Posts: 7,292
It's not whether I own it or not. The point I am making is that you are regurgitating information with no facts, only a guess that seems to be confirming your bias.
"Tesla is in for a STEEP decline" based on someone buying short puts which we don't know an expiration or strike. I used your logic to prove the bull thesis as well. I also encourage you to look at how many institutions hold long shares, long calls and short puts of Tesla (not including index funds) vs who is short and you tell me where the "smart money" is. One person buying puts, no matter how much, doesn't mean anything, it's a short term guess that someone is making. Your logic isn't sound and you just seem to have a bone to pick with ARK, more than anything.
You claim to be a master of valuation and you say it's going down to the 100s based on your very sophisticated calculations (BTW, that's still $500+ on a split adjusted basis which was overvalued at that price, but somehow because the share price will be in the $100s its ok now?).
Again, nothing to do with what I do or do not own. You're just saying things we always hear on CNBC and the book you read least year. No data or substance. Just words. You'd do well on CNBC, actually.
"Tesla is in for a STEEP decline" based on someone buying short puts which we don't know an expiration or strike. I used your logic to prove the bull thesis as well. I also encourage you to look at how many institutions hold long shares, long calls and short puts of Tesla (not including index funds) vs who is short and you tell me where the "smart money" is. One person buying puts, no matter how much, doesn't mean anything, it's a short term guess that someone is making. Your logic isn't sound and you just seem to have a bone to pick with ARK, more than anything.
You claim to be a master of valuation and you say it's going down to the 100s based on your very sophisticated calculations (BTW, that's still $500+ on a split adjusted basis which was overvalued at that price, but somehow because the share price will be in the $100s its ok now?).
Again, nothing to do with what I do or do not own. You're just saying things we always hear on CNBC and the book you read least year. No data or substance. Just words. You'd do well on CNBC, actually.
Burry is using his fame/buying power to manipulate TSLA to his advantage. It's despicable.
05-18-2021, 12:21 PM
#195
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
They are called 'perma bears' . At some point they will be right, and say "See, I told you". But they haven't had much appreciable success for the last.... I forget how many years now.
Burry is using his fame/buying power to manipulate TSLA to his advantage. It's despicable.
Burry is using his fame/buying power to manipulate TSLA to his advantage. It's despicable.
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05-18-2021, 12:31 PM
#196
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Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,616
Long term bullish on TSLA. Of course with a cost basis below zero, it's hard to be wrong. My TSLA goal is to pay for the Cybertruck by selling calls.
05-18-2021, 01:50 PM
#197
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,602
Have you considered paring back your equities and throwing some coin into real estate? Inflation will make you a fortune when using safe leverage on income property.
Long term bullish on TSLA. Of course with a cost basis below zero, it's hard to be wrong. My TSLA goal is to pay for the Cybertruck by selling calls.
Long term bullish on TSLA. Of course with a cost basis below zero, it's hard to be wrong. My TSLA goal is to pay for the Cybertruck by selling calls.
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05-18-2021, 01:55 PM
#198
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Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 331
In my opinion Musk has lost some credibility with his whole bitcoin/doge manipulation tactics.
05-18-2021, 01:57 PM
#199
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Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 331
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