Yoohoo1

Makes sense. Since we currently have more than 2000 pilots less than 2019, we won’t have the staffing to match 2019 revenue until 2023.

Bert Sampson

But for perspective, wasn’t 2019 pretty much the craziest most lucrative year in Delta history? Does that mean we’re at something like 2014 revenue by 4Q this year?

172skychicken

I can't speak to any of the metrics like RASM, PRASM, or yield, but it was definitely the highest gross revenue in our history. We're apparently solidly profitable pretax in June and they're expecting the second half of the year to as well.

Wolf424

Another post Covid record yesterday. 2.1 Mil

saturn

If you read between the lines, we are looking at a big financial rebound similar to the rapid recovery in the stock market. Ed said 2019 revenues ($47B) by 2023. Unsure if that's full year revenue, or where a quarter matches a 2019 quarter? Either way, just like profits spiked up in 2014 and thereafter, we're probably in 2012 right now.

We are leaner and carried forward billions in paper losses. We won't pay taxes for many years. Ed stated no buybacks or dividends for a few years. We won't have any pension contributions. CapEx on some major airport projects (LAX, LGA) wrap up. When Covid hit we had 13B debt, we have 19B right now, and much of it will mature by 2023.

I truly believe by 2023 we'll have a lot of free cash flow + higher credit rating, and that we'll be ramping up fleet CapEx just like UA/WN are doing. I wouldn't be surprised by the fleet announcement rumors being true if this is the guidance. Got to get a spot in the production line, and secure good prices while AB/BA scramble for replacement orders. Most of the $ needed to finance the orders will be when we should be killing it again.

TransWorld

Sure looks like it is going to blow right by my prediction of 70 to 80% this summer.

JFS 3

You also recently predicted that majors wouldn't start hiring again until 2023 or 2024, so...

Speed Select

What about inflation and the impending recession?

While I recognize that management must make some assumptions about the future to right size the business, it’s a very volitile (unpredictable) market right now. Inflation? Rising interest rates? Chinas response to accusations that the virus escaped from their lab? It goes on and on, all exacerbated by the pandemic (unprecedented times and stuff).

2019 was headed for an eventual correction, as well. But throw together CV recovery, massive amounts of cash floating around an economy with less value than before the pandemic, and political/social/dynamics that wildly swung at the inauguration, and I don’t know if it’s safe to say we’ll be announcing new fleets, etc.

My bet is on the same old Delta formula: pay down debt, look for really good deals on unwanted airplanes.

TransWorld

Right. And I was accused of being overly optimistic with hiring those years.

TexanDriver

2,147,090 yesterday vs 2,088,760 in 2019. And that’s with lower international travel.