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Old 10-12-2020, 12:27 PM
  #551  
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Originally Posted by Ursula
I like this in terms of passenger volume. Not sure about revenue: will it be 60% pax at 75% revenues?
No, yields will be lower. It's more likely to be 70% pax at 50% revenues or something.
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Old 10-12-2020, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by mikea72580
4Q2020- 35%-40%



Holidays- 45%



Summer 2021- 55%-60%



4Q2021- 65%



Summer 2022- 80% (Which is 100% because we are a smaller airline and with every pilot on the property we could only fly 80% of 2019 loads unless we begin hiring)



Winter 2022- Delta resumes hiring


Originally Posted by Ursula
I like this in terms of passenger volume. Not sure about revenue: will it be 60% pax at 75% revenues?


I’m actually more bullish. I see by end of Summer 2021 being 80% pax at 75% revenue.

Consensus estimates for Q3 results tomorrow are 25% pax on 21% revenue when compared to 2019. I expect it to be closer to 27% pax on 23% pax revenue.

Costs will be outrageous due to the write offs. However direct operating costs will likely be less than $2 billion more than revenue. Just my 2 cents.
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Old 10-12-2020, 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted by m3113n1a1
65-70% for summer 2021...or is that too ambitious?
I have been thinking domestic of 80% next summer. International still has a broken crystal ball.
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Old 10-13-2020, 03:27 AM
  #554  
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Originally Posted by D B Cooper
If the airport testing takes off, and actually can mitigate quarantining on arrival and allow European travel, I wouldn't be surprised to see 70% -75% next summer.
Airport testing is an f-Ing nightmare.

take it from someone who deadheads frequently to Hong Kong. You wait 12 hours confined to a plastic chair for the results. No thanks.
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Old 10-13-2020, 04:42 AM
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
I have been thinking domestic of 80% next summer. International still has a broken crystal ball.
IMHO international will come back as soon as the politicians let it. People WANT to travel.

Hawaii will be an interesting test case now that it’s opening back up, albeit not “international” per se.
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Old 10-13-2020, 04:42 AM
  #556  
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I don't get all these bold predictions, they're about as valid as my father always having 'that feeling' that he's going to win the powerball. Nobody knows and you're just leaving a trail of garbage for someone to quote in 6 months to show how stupid you are. Maybe it will be be great maybe not, but nobody here has an effin' clue one way or the other.
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Old 10-13-2020, 05:24 AM
  #557  
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Originally Posted by Bergman
Hawaii will be an interesting test case now that it’s opening back up, albeit not “international” per se.
If that is any indication, international travel is doomed. I just got my COVID test for travel to Hawaii on the 15th and I still don’t know if I will have my results in time for my flight. It was a pain to get the appointment and there is only so much testing capacity. Plus it costs almost $200.
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Old 10-13-2020, 09:00 AM
  #558  
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Originally Posted by iahflyr
If that is any indication, international travel is doomed. I just got my COVID test for travel to Hawaii on the 15th and I still don’t know if I will have my results in time for my flight. It was a pain to get the appointment and there is only so much testing capacity. Plus it costs almost $200.
I hear you. A family member tried getting a rapid test this week, and for all the ballyhoo about Covid you’d think that would be easy. No rapid testing available and over a week wait to get an appointment.

I got tested at DTW and had results in 24 hrs FWIW.
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Old 10-13-2020, 09:14 AM
  #559  
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Originally Posted by mikea72580
4Q2020- 35%-40%

Holidays- 45%

Summer 2021- 55%-60%

4Q2021- 65%

Summer 2022- 80% (Which is 100% because we are a smaller airline and with every pilot on the property we could only fly 80% of 2019 loads unless we begin hiring)

Winter 2022- Delta resumes hiring
Hopefully starting with those who were given CJOs in Feb/Mar.
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Old 10-13-2020, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Speed Select
Hopefully starting with those who were given CJOs in Feb/Mar.
agree. I do think DL has a history or honoring CJOs, I’ve been told in 2007 when the merger was going on, the pre9/11 NW CJO holders were called asking if they were still interested in working for DL/NW. If the CJOs do expire I’d bet they do a quick reinterview
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