1.1M+ TSA Numbers by Independence Day
08-23-2020, 07:58 AM
#461
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2009
Position: Middle Seat
Posts: 1,229
This weekend will have some of the biggest numbers yet. Had PAX say it was an hour to get through security in ATL (many lanes still closed I know).
I also hope Delta gives some of the vendors a heads up about future bookings. Everywhere had lines of people waiting for food and that was even in between banks!
I also hope Delta gives some of the vendors a heads up about future bookings. Everywhere had lines of people waiting for food and that was even in between banks!
08-24-2020, 02:57 AM
#463
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Here and there
Posts: 1,906
This weekend will have some of the biggest numbers yet. Had PAX say it was an hour to get through security in ATL (many lanes still closed I know).
I also hope Delta gives some of the vendors a heads up about future bookings. Everywhere had lines of people waiting for food and that was even in between banks!
I also hope Delta gives some of the vendors a heads up about future bookings. Everywhere had lines of people waiting for food and that was even in between banks!
I hate to be perceived as a Debbie Downer, but Delta’s pax count for the weekend that just ended was 13k (Fri), 15k (Sat), and 9k (Sun) lower WoW.
08-24-2020, 05:44 AM
#464
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
This weekend will have some of the biggest numbers yet. Had PAX say it was an hour to get through security in ATL (many lanes still closed I know).
I also hope Delta gives some of the vendors a heads up about future bookings. Everywhere had lines of people waiting for food and that was even in between banks!
I also hope Delta gives some of the vendors a heads up about future bookings. Everywhere had lines of people waiting for food and that was even in between banks!
we have yet to crack 35% on a single day except for July 2.
TSA Number discussion at this thread: TSA Numbers
08-24-2020, 06:12 AM
#465
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: Resting
Posts: 376
It does appear that we have peaked this year at sub 35%. The curve of pax gaining confidence to fly vs the downward seasonal fall drop off have met and it appears the seasonality curve is winning. With Covid cases on the decline and places slowly opening, loads will slowly creep up but will prob remain at 35% until progress is made in treatment/preventives. Holidays in 2020 should hit 40%.
Industry leaders have accepted a 35% 2020 load, and a 60-65% Summer 2021 estimate. This represents a viable recovery and companies are maneuvering to reach profitability in that demand environment. While we wish pax had come back sooner, the real positive news is the elimination of uncertainty, and a logical booking trend and reasonable estimates that should be a pretty accurate basis upon which to plan a recovery.
Early on, analysts had hoped airlines would reach 50% by years end. It looks like that will not happen. But as far as staffing goes, only summer 2021 matters. With loads hitting a soft ceiling, it appears unlikely any airline will break even by the end of the year. Probably will not happen till 2Q2021, which while not the news we wanted, is a scenario airlines are financially equipped to handle.
08-24-2020, 06:32 AM
#466
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Here and there
Posts: 1,906
It does appear that we have peaked this year at sub 35%. The curve of pax gaining confidence to fly vs the downward seasonal fall drop off have met and it appears the seasonality curve is winning. With Covid cases on the decline and places slowly opening, loads will slowly creep up but will prob remain at 35% until progress is made in treatment/preventives. Holidays in 2020 should hit 40%.
Industry leaders have accepted a 35% 2020 load, and a 60-65% Summer 2021 estimate. This represents a viable recovery and companies are maneuvering to reach profitability in that demand environment. While we wish pax had come back sooner, the real positive news is the elimination of uncertainty, and a logical booking trend and reasonable estimates that should be a pretty accurate basis upon which to plan a recovery.
Early on, analysts had hoped airlines would reach 50% by years end. It looks like that will not happen. But as far as staffing goes, only summer 2021 matters. With loads hitting a soft ceiling, it appears unlikely any airline will break even by the end of the year. Probably will not happen till 2Q2021, which while not the news we wanted, is a scenario airlines are financially equipped to handle.
Industry leaders have accepted a 35% 2020 load, and a 60-65% Summer 2021 estimate. This represents a viable recovery and companies are maneuvering to reach profitability in that demand environment. While we wish pax had come back sooner, the real positive news is the elimination of uncertainty, and a logical booking trend and reasonable estimates that should be a pretty accurate basis upon which to plan a recovery.
Early on, analysts had hoped airlines would reach 50% by years end. It looks like that will not happen. But as far as staffing goes, only summer 2021 matters. With loads hitting a soft ceiling, it appears unlikely any airline will break even by the end of the year. Probably will not happen till 2Q2021, which while not the news we wanted, is a scenario airlines are financially equipped to handle.
I’d call this a solid analysis. Thanks for your insight.
08-24-2020, 10:39 AM
#467
Back on Reserve
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Position: A330 FO
Posts: 720
Agree. There's a certain level of logic in the 35% and 60-65% recovery numbers. We are at a point in time where the 'fast recovery, all is well' and the 'doom, gloom and bankruptcy-is-the-only-option' extremes are proving less likely each day. Tracking the %-of-2019 traffic numbers is probably the best indicator and, while each milestone (100k pax increase) is exciting, the actual YOY % will give us the best expectation for rebuild.
08-24-2020, 02:38 PM
#468
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
It does appear that we have peaked this year at sub 35%. The curve of pax gaining confidence to fly vs the downward seasonal fall drop off have met and it appears the seasonality curve is winning. With Covid cases on the decline and places slowly opening, loads will slowly creep up but will prob remain at 35% until progress is made in treatment/preventives. Holidays in 2020 should hit 40%.
Industry leaders have accepted a 35% 2020 load, and a 60-65% Summer 2021 estimate. This represents a viable recovery and companies are maneuvering to reach profitability in that demand environment. While we wish pax had come back sooner, the real positive news is the elimination of uncertainty, and a logical booking trend and reasonable estimates that should be a pretty accurate basis upon which to plan a recovery.
Early on, analysts had hoped airlines would reach 50% by years end. It looks like that will not happen. But as far as staffing goes, only summer 2021 matters. With loads hitting a soft ceiling, it appears unlikely any airline will break even by the end of the year. Probably will not happen till 2Q2021, which while not the news we wanted, is a scenario airlines are financially equipped to handle.
Industry leaders have accepted a 35% 2020 load, and a 60-65% Summer 2021 estimate. This represents a viable recovery and companies are maneuvering to reach profitability in that demand environment. While we wish pax had come back sooner, the real positive news is the elimination of uncertainty, and a logical booking trend and reasonable estimates that should be a pretty accurate basis upon which to plan a recovery.
Early on, analysts had hoped airlines would reach 50% by years end. It looks like that will not happen. But as far as staffing goes, only summer 2021 matters. With loads hitting a soft ceiling, it appears unlikely any airline will break even by the end of the year. Probably will not happen till 2Q2021, which while not the news we wanted, is a scenario airlines are financially equipped to handle.
08-26-2020, 04:11 AM
#469
On Reserve
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: B717 FO
Posts: 22
I'm hopeful that the virus is starting to run its course, and we get 1.1 million passengers by Thanksgiving. Let's remember 1.1 million passengers for holiday travel is an awful figure.
I think the economic recovery is going to take a while. How many small businesses are going to go under?
My 53 year old cousin took over his grandfather's vending business that's been running since the 1950's. He's worked there since he was out of highschool, and him and his family always had lots of money. My father told me last night they are going out of business. All of the offices they serve are closed, and many are not coming back. I never thought that I would be seeing them struggle. Throughout the years it seemed like they were printing money in their basement. What are the long-term effects of these closures?
I know I'm probably getting more pessimistic as I see people I love getting hurt, and people every recession think the economy will never recover, but this time truly does feel different.
Maybe we need a new thread "1.6 million passengers by July 2021"?
I think the economic recovery is going to take a while. How many small businesses are going to go under?
My 53 year old cousin took over his grandfather's vending business that's been running since the 1950's. He's worked there since he was out of highschool, and him and his family always had lots of money. My father told me last night they are going out of business. All of the offices they serve are closed, and many are not coming back. I never thought that I would be seeing them struggle. Throughout the years it seemed like they were printing money in their basement. What are the long-term effects of these closures?
I know I'm probably getting more pessimistic as I see people I love getting hurt, and people every recession think the economy will never recover, but this time truly does feel different.
Maybe we need a new thread "1.6 million passengers by July 2021"?
08-26-2020, 04:20 AM
#470
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2016
Position: NBC
Posts: 781
Some things may look different (are masks forever?) going forward, but we’ll recover.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
